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Trough returns next week


Ginx snewx

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this is the real gods country almost August and they still have this problem!! Snowman.gif

FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV216 AM PDT SAT JUL 30 2011.THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONSOF EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING...BRINGING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE FLOODING THREATIN THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL BE ENHANCED BY MELTING SNOW.

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Same situation with me Re: Upstate NY. I'm bound here---born and raised and now my business centers on NY so I can really go far. I managed to move 50 miles NNW to a much better snow location, but that's as far as I could get from NYC, etc.

God knows this place is a mess in many ways...so over taxed (property taxes worst) and over regulated, corrupt, you name it. LOL ALB area looks prosperous enough because it's the state capital with many jobs, but I'd get the heck out of here if it was feasible. Sometimes you are just stuck..but there are certainly worse places ...umm like CEF. j/k LOL

Well I was born in Spfld and wife from Agawam. Guess I'm locked in here for a few more years at least until son finishes college.

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Monday could be rather fun convective wise, unlike Friday we won't have cloud debris to contend with so temps should soar into the 80's and 90's across much of the region with dewpoints into the 60's. Were also looking at a very steep lapse rate environment as 500mb temps will be around -12C...were talking about mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/KM. Shear is rather weak so storms would be very slow moving.

Strong piece of energy rotating through aloft should work wonders, especially with a moderately unstable environment in place coupled together with very steep mid-level lapse rates (cold air aloft in the mid levels) and very steep low-level lapse rates (strong solar heating).

Really good setup for microbursts (which would be the cause of strong winds), and some really large hail possible.

This is like a setup in 1992 I think...although 500mb temps are not nearly as cold where there were major hail storms and Springfield got whacked pretty hard.

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Monday could be rather fun convective wise, unlike Friday we won't have cloud debris to contend with so temps should soar into the 80's and 90's across much of the region with dewpoints into the 60's. Were also looking at a very steep lapse rate environment as 500mb temps will be around -12C...were talking about mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/KM. Shear is rather weak so storms would be very slow moving.

Strong piece of energy rotating through aloft should work wonders, especially with a moderately unstable environment in place coupled together with very steep mid-level lapse rates (cold air aloft in the mid levels) and very steep low-level lapse rates (strong solar heating).

Really good setup for microbursts (which would be the cause of strong winds), and some really large hail possible.

This is like a setup in 1992 I think...although 500mb temps are not nearly as cold where there were major hail storms and Springfield got whacked pretty hard.

I'm much more enthusiastic about Monday vs yesterday's obvious to most PHAIL. Yetserday never had a chance AMOUT

Monday looks like a carbon copy of last Tuesday

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I'm much more enthusiastic about Monday vs yesterday's obvious to most PHAIL. Yetserday never had a chance AMOUT

Monday looks like a carbon copy of last Tuesday

People need to stop with the "this failed" or "this didn't fail" stuff...it's stupid. Most smart people paid very close attention to yesterday, SPC had mention of the possibility for us, BOX did, OKX did, Ryan mentioned it...everyone knew that cloud debris was potentially an issue and everyone mentioned that. I can guarantee you most forecasters in this area were paying extremely close attention to the situation all day long. In set ups like that you just can't ignore things or ignore the potential at hand.

I agree though, Monday's potential is great as we know we aren't going to have cloud debris to screw us over, while shear is certainly not impressive we have a very strong s/w coming through in what should be a moderately unstable environment coupled with very steep lapse rates.

I disagree about it being a carbon copy of last Tuesday, last Tuesday we had major help from the very strong shear values that were in place, instability was nothing impressive but it was just enough given the shear we had to make storms go crazy. If anything yesterday was a carbon copy of last Tuesday, except it was areas just further to the west (NE PA/SE NY) that had all the action, not us. Both yesterday and Tuesday into those areas where characterized by very strong shear and decent instability...the strongest instability was off to the south across SE PA/NJ region.

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We hit 34 in Saugerties (250 ft asl) in that late August 1982 cold snap. Maybe they had a little frost up here...who knows.

Since I came up here in 2004 it never got close to that 34 reading ..probably hasn't been below about 40 in August.

August 25, 1987 hit 31F at the old Chester coop. August 21, 1984 hit 34F. August 22, 1982 hit 28F. August 11, 1974 hit 34F. August 5, 1972 hit 33F.

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Well in a sense the whole season is a "fail" after June 1st. ;) I knew that lightning could never strike twice like that...so to speak.

People need to stop with the "this failed" or "this didn't fail" stuff...it's stupid. Most smart people paid very close attention to yesterday, SPC had mention of the possibility for us, BOX did, OKX did, Ryan mentioned it...everyone knew that cloud debris was potentially an issue and everyone mentioned that. I can guarantee you most forecasters in this area were paying extremely close attention to the situation all day long. In set ups like that you just can't ignore things or ignore the potential at hand.

I agree though, Monday's potential is great as we know we aren't going to have cloud debris to screw us over, while shear is certainly not impressive we have a very strong s/w coming through in what should be a moderately unstable environment coupled with very steep lapse rates.

I disagree about it being a carbon copy of last Tuesday, last Tuesday we had major help from the very strong shear values that were in place, instability was nothing impressive but it was just enough given the shear we had to make storms go crazy. If anything yesterday was a carbon copy of last Tuesday, except it was areas just further to the west (NE PA/SE NY) that had all the action, not us. Both yesterday and Tuesday into those areas where characterized by very strong shear and decent instability...the strongest instability was off to the south across SE PA/NJ region.

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Well in a sense the whole season is a "fail" after June 1st. ;) I knew that lightning could never strike twice like that...so to speak.

6/1 is a once in a decade type event here so probably the next 8-10 years will look like a fail :lol:. Usually our good severe season ends in early/mid July but you can still get some events after that. But June is usually prime time here if you want to call it that.

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August 25, 1987 hit 31F at the old Chester coop. August 21, 1984 hit 34F. August 22, 1982 hit 28F. August 11, 1974 hit 34F. August 5, 1972 hit 33F.

If you know was that station run by a guy named Dave Parrett ?

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6/1 is a once in a decade type event here so probably the next 8-10 years will look like a fail :lol:. Usually our good severe season ends in early/mid July but you can still get some events after that. But June is usually prime time here if you want to call it that.

August can have some fun events as well but yeah I agree, after early to mid July things go downhill very quickly. With that said I could see this August being an active one given how things are setting up. Some hints at some pretty strong troughs diving into the west soon and models are showing some really strong systems working through the westerlies which have been really strong all spring and summer long. Still in a good setup for heat/humidity as well so I do think we should see one more really good event before all said and done.

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Oh crazy things can happen out of the prime season. I won't forget Nov. 1989 when that tornado wrecked the school in Coldenham, NY near SWF... I drove through the line of storms tho didn't see the rotation. That was after Nov. 15th and an early season Canadian airmass coming in. Then a week later the snow event along I-95.

August can have some fun events as well but yeah I agree, after early to mid July things go downhill very quickly. With that said I could see this August being an active one given how things are setting up. Some hints at some pretty strong troughs diving into the west soon and models are showing some really strong systems working through the westerlies which have been really strong all spring and summer long. Still in a good setup for heat/humidity as well so I do think we should see one more really good event before all said and done.

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Oh crazy things can happen out of the prime season. I won't forget Nov. 1989 when that tornado wrecked the school in Coldenham, NY near SWF... I drove through the line of storms tho didn't see the rotation. That was after Nov. 15th and an early season Canadian airmass coming in. Then a week later the snow event along I-95.

Yeah you can always get crazy events outside of prime season, especially when you have an abnormal pattern in place, remember this past year (was it February or March) where we had that really intense negatively tilted system that cut inland placing much of the east-coast in a very strong warm sector and Baltimore had that EF1 tornado and 80-100 mph microburst and there was that EF0 (might have been a EF1) in eastern NY at 5:28 AM?

Can't forget the Labor Day derecho on September 7th, 1998 and the serial derecho on December 1st, 2006 which produced several tornadoes in PA and numerous tornado warnings from PA to CT.

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People need to stop with the "this failed" or "this didn't fail" stuff...it's stupid. Most smart people paid very close attention to yesterday, SPC had mention of the possibility for us, BOX did, OKX did, Ryan mentioned it...everyone knew that cloud debris was potentially an issue and everyone mentioned that. I can guarantee you most forecasters in this area were paying extremely close attention to the situation all day long. In set ups like that you just can't ignore things or ignore the potential at hand.

I agree though, Monday's potential is great as we know we aren't going to have cloud debris to screw us over, while shear is certainly not impressive we have a very strong s/w coming through in what should be a moderately unstable environment coupled with very steep lapse rates.

I disagree about it being a carbon copy of last Tuesday, last Tuesday we had major help from the very strong shear values that were in place, instability was nothing impressive but it was just enough given the shear we had to make storms go crazy. If anything yesterday was a carbon copy of last Tuesday, except it was areas just further to the west (NE PA/SE NY) that had all the action, not us. Both yesterday and Tuesday into those areas where characterized by very strong shear and decent instability...the strongest instability was off to the south across SE PA/NJ region.

It never had a chance and anyone worth their weight in weather knew we had no shot of anything severe. There was no chance..Most on here even said that. BOX never played it up. Noone did except you

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Truth is the wx is gonna be boring 95% of the time from now until probably early November. :devilsmiley: The worst heat is done, storms fail usually from here on out, Pete's frost won't amount to much for the rest until October sometime and who gets all amped up over frost anyway? I'm just happy to have it to kill the insects and ragweed, but beyond that wake me up around Nov. 1st.

The best hope for fun is if a hurricane threatens the US coast someplace.... It's the only wx that I enjoy watching vicariously. Watching tornadoes in the Plains doesn't do much for me if I'm 2k miles away, but I love following canes.

It never had a chance and anyone worth their weight in weather knew we had no shot of anything severe. There was no chance..Most on here even said that. BOX never played it up. Noone did except you

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It never had a chance and anyone worth their weight in weather knew we had no shot of anything severe. There was no chance..Most on here even said that. BOX never played it up. Noone did except you

lol.

Well SPC had mention since Day 3, BOX had mention, OKX had mention...everyone knew the potential was there and nobody ignored it b/c you'd be foolish to ignore a setup like that...all it would of taken is a little bit of sun and we would have had some issues here, look at what happened across portions of SE NY. There most certainly was a chance or otherwise we would have never been in a slight risk, BOX would have never said anything in their AFD's and skywarn would have never sent out a coordination message for potential severe.

And anyways I said 1000 times as well it was all dependent on the sun and how much sun we saw, it's better to be aware of everything at hand and off all the possibilities then to be left dry in the dark if something happens and nobody expected it b/c they weren't aware of the possibility.

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