weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That stuff may actually miss us to our SW and go more towards the NYC area...maybe even a bit further west than that. Best elevated instability values are off to our west..well west...also looks like that stuff in western NY is weakening some. Looks like some slight warming starting to occur with the cloud tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That stuff may actually miss us to our SW and go more towards the NYC area...maybe even a bit further west than that. Best elevated instability values are off to our west..well west...also looks like that stuff in western NY is weakening some. Looks like some slight warming starting to occur with the cloud tops. Yeah the MCS out there is starting to weaken and I agree the brunt moves west of us this morning. It's a real convoluted threat today with a lot of moving pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeah the MCS out there is starting to weaken and I agree the brunt moves west of us this morning. It's a real convoluted threat today with a lot of moving pieces. The only thing that is keeping this interesting is the forecast shear/helicity values, otherwise this would be nothing at all. Hopefully we can get up to around 85F today...85/69 or 85/70 should be enough to generate just enough cape to get some good stuff going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeah the MCS out there is starting to weaken and I agree the brunt moves west of us this morning. It's a real convoluted threat today with a lot of moving pieces. That is the problem I see...too many unknowns and moving parts. Also, high-cape low shear "events" have a tendency to trend sw, nearly always underwhelms -with the exception of an occasional storm that manages to fire and produce a waterspout off LI or CT. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 That is the problem I see...too many unknowns and moving parts. Also, high-cape low shear "events" have a tendency to trend sw, nearly always underwhelms -with the exception of an occasional storm that manages to fire and produce a waterspout off LI or CT. ;p Yeah most of the time these events don't produce so no reason to get overly excited but we'll see. If we get some sunshine in western areas things could get interesting later. Late July, August, and September seem to be when these events work out best with warm SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Sweet...that thing is really diving more to the SE now, probably riding along the axis of strongest MUcape. Cloud tops warming very rapidly as well. AS long as the mid-level and low-level cloud deck isn't too thick we should at least get some breaks in the clouds...maybe some spots can get mostly cloudy conditions at times but that is really all we need. Thankfully timing appears to be after 4 PM so at least this later timing gives us more of a window to break into some sunshine and get the atmosphere to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Yeah most of the time these events don't produce so no reason to get overly excited but we'll see. If we get some sunshine in western areas things could get interesting later. Late July, August, and September seem to be when these events work out best with warm SSTs. Good point about late season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Off to work...we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks like a pretty big Phail as far as Wiz's call last night of a widespread Tornadic outbreak. Socked in with fog on the hill here. Los of low clouds..and then the MCS junk to the west 66.2/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks like a pretty big Phail as far as Wiz's call last night of a widespread Tornadic outbreak. Socked in with fog on the hill here. Los of low clouds..and then the MCS junk to the west 66.2/66 Big shock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Big shock Looks pretty MEH today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Looks pretty MEH today You thought June 1 would be "meh" so this is probably a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 You thought June 1 would be "meh" so this is probably a good thing That was all reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 It will be nice if we can some storms to develop. But, I'll be more than satisfied if we can just get rain. I'm tired of watering my newly seeded areas. FWIW, the two 91* days of heat last week had zero effect on it's sprouting/growing. The second area I seeded on Monday is also starting to come up. Who says summer's a bad time to grow grass....... EDIT 7:10: Raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Off to work...we'll see what happens. assuming anything happens at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 wonderful light rain this morning, just delightful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Today has more of a "feel" for severe up here than Tuesday Much more humidity, but I'm thinking just showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Today has more of a "feel" for severe up here than Tuesday Much more humidity, but I'm thinking just showers Catostrophic damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Catostrophic damage 75 + Deaths again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Today has more of a "feel" for severe up here than Tuesday Much more humidity, but I'm thinking just showers I agree. Cloud cover to the West putting a damper on things. We could use the rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Once it starts raining...wherever that winds up being... it's gonna rain for a loooooonnggg time... a few sprinkles here attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Steady rain and some fog down here at the CT shoreline. Not expecting much in the way of severe today. if we are lucky, we'll get a shower.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Got on the earlier flight out of BWI.. at least an interesting meteorogical flight ahead of me. Just wish i was seated on left side of plane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Impressive rain in ontario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Got on the earlier flight out of BWI.. at least an interesting meteorogical flight ahead of me. Just wish i was seated on left side of plane Trade seats with someone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Trade seats with someone... Or maybe they can fly upside down. This air is moisture laden. Something will trigger serious rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Or maybe they can fly upside down. This air is moisture laden. Something will trigger serious rain True...but then he would have to sit upside down to see the clouds right side up...nevermind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Right on the valley floor the sky is brighter... It's trying to burn off. To the east and west looks pretty well socked in on the vis however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Impressive rain in ontario How's camp going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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