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Trough returns next week


Ginx snewx

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That stuff may actually miss us to our SW and go more towards the NYC area...maybe even a bit further west than that. Best elevated instability values are off to our west..well west...also looks like that stuff in western NY is weakening some. Looks like some slight warming starting to occur with the cloud tops.

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That stuff may actually miss us to our SW and go more towards the NYC area...maybe even a bit further west than that. Best elevated instability values are off to our west..well west...also looks like that stuff in western NY is weakening some. Looks like some slight warming starting to occur with the cloud tops.

Yeah the MCS out there is starting to weaken and I agree the brunt moves west of us this morning. It's a real convoluted threat today with a lot of moving pieces.

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Yeah the MCS out there is starting to weaken and I agree the brunt moves west of us this morning. It's a real convoluted threat today with a lot of moving pieces.

The only thing that is keeping this interesting is the forecast shear/helicity values, otherwise this would be nothing at all.

Hopefully we can get up to around 85F today...85/69 or 85/70 should be enough to generate just enough cape to get some good stuff going.

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Yeah the MCS out there is starting to weaken and I agree the brunt moves west of us this morning. It's a real convoluted threat today with a lot of moving pieces.

That is the problem I see...too many unknowns and moving parts. Also, high-cape low shear "events" have a tendency to trend sw, nearly always underwhelms -with the exception of an occasional storm that manages to fire and produce a waterspout off LI or CT. ;p

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That is the problem I see...too many unknowns and moving parts. Also, high-cape low shear "events" have a tendency to trend sw, nearly always underwhelms -with the exception of an occasional storm that manages to fire and produce a waterspout off LI or CT. ;p

Yeah most of the time these events don't produce so no reason to get overly excited but we'll see. If we get some sunshine in western areas things could get interesting later.

Late July, August, and September seem to be when these events work out best with warm SSTs.

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Sweet...that thing is really diving more to the SE now, probably riding along the axis of strongest MUcape. Cloud tops warming very rapidly as well. AS long as the mid-level and low-level cloud deck isn't too thick we should at least get some breaks in the clouds...maybe some spots can get mostly cloudy conditions at times but that is really all we need. Thankfully timing appears to be after 4 PM so at least this later timing gives us more of a window to break into some sunshine and get the atmosphere to destabilize.

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Yeah most of the time these events don't produce so no reason to get overly excited but we'll see. If we get some sunshine in western areas things could get interesting later.

Late July, August, and September seem to be when these events work out best with warm SSTs.

Good point about late season.

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It will be nice if we can some storms to develop. But, I'll be more than satisfied if we can just get rain. I'm tired of watering my newly seeded areas. FWIW, the two 91* days of heat last week had zero effect on it's sprouting/growing. The second area I seeded on Monday is also starting to come up. Who says summer's a bad time to grow grass.......

EDIT 7:10: Raining

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