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Trough returns next week


Ginx snewx

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I'm expecting widespread river flooding tomorrow. Cars washed off rds, people trapped on rooves with helicopter rescues. Maybe even a Big Canyon flood like in Colorado

Your probably underestimating it. Expect something more like the 1993 Mississippi river floods tomorrow.

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I've looked over the 12z NAM/GFS; 18z NAM...a bit of 18z GFS since it just came out and the 15z SPC SREF and...WOW.

Not only will we have the potential for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow (similar to that of Tuesday) but we could see the potential for tornadoes as well. In fact, depending on the storm mode tomorrow if we can manage more in the way of discrete storms we could see potential for a tornado outbreak.

The BIGGEST issue at hand is the MCS...that's the key in this whole thing. Will it leave us with a great deal of cloud cover and if it does can we clear the clouds out quickly enough in time for the atmosphere to recover? Only time will tell.

The next issue to deal with is timing of the front and the very strong s/w energy rotating through...if we can time it for mid-afternoon like on Tuesday and were unstable...look out.

Anyways, if we don't get screwed over by the MCS the models are underdoing instability and overdoing cloud cover tomorrow. Looking at the skew-t soundings the column is not saturated and there is enough dry air to make me believe we would see ample sun...like what occurred on Tuesday.

While mid-level lapse rates do suck (they do improve slightly late in the afternoon) the potential combination of cape (1000-2000 J/KG possible if enough heating occurs) and strong shear (vertical shear values of 40-50 knots) would be enough to overcome the weak lapse rates...again like we saw on Tuesday.

Shear is strong...very strong and the LLJ is fairly strong as well...both speed and vertical shear is present on both the NAM/GFS and with such a strong mid-level flow and good directional shear 0-3km helicity could be quite impressive tomorrow...possibly in excess of 250-400 m2s2. Depending on how strong the LLJ is and what the sfc winds up through the BL are like direction wise 0-1km helicity could be rather impressive as well...possibly in excess of 200-250 m2s2 (more impressive than Tuesday).

Favorite areas right now are eastern MA to central MA/CT...also including VT/NH.

As stated above, the issues are the MCS and exact timing but if everything works out we could see some major issues tomorrow.

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I've looked over the 12z NAM/GFS; 18z NAM...a bit of 18z GFS since it just came out and the 15z SPC SREF and...WOW.

Not only will we have the potential for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow (similar to that of Tuesday) but we could see the potential for tornadoes as well. In fact, depending on the storm mode tomorrow if we can manage more in the way of discrete storms we could see potential for a tornado outbreak.

The BIGGEST issue at hand is the MCS...that's the key in this whole thing. Will it leave us with a great deal of cloud cover and if it does can we clear the clouds out quickly enough in time for the atmosphere to recover? Only time will tell.

The next issue to deal with is timing of the front and the very strong s/w energy rotating through...if we can time it for mid-afternoon like on Tuesday and were unstable...look out.

Anyways, if we don't get screwed over by the MCS the models are underdoing instability and overdoing cloud cover tomorrow. Looking at the skew-t soundings the column is not saturated and there is enough dry air to make me believe we would see ample sun...like what occurred on Tuesday.

While mid-level lapse rates do suck (they do improve slightly late in the afternoon) the potential combination of cape (1000-2000 J/KG possible if enough heating occurs) and strong shear (vertical shear values of 40-50 knots) would be enough to overcome the weak lapse rates...again like we saw on Tuesday.

Shear is strong...very strong and the LLJ is fairly strong as well...both speed and vertical shear is present on both the NAM/GFS and with such a strong mid-level flow and good directional shear 0-3km helicity could be quite impressive tomorrow...possibly in excess of 250-400 m2s2. Depending on how strong the LLJ is and what the sfc winds up through the BL are like direction wise 0-1km helicity could be rather impressive as well...possibly in excess of 200-250 m2s2 (more impressive than Tuesday).

Favorite areas right now are eastern MA to central MA/CT...also including VT/NH.

As stated above, the issues are the MCS and exact timing but if everything works out we could see some major issues tomorrow.

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

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NAM has a whopping 500 joules of cape here tomorrow afternoon. :lol:

Theres a lot of low level shear so if we actually got good convection then it could be interesting.

That's b/c the NAM is overdoing the cloud cover but looking at the skew-t's I doubt that would be an issue...remember models did that for Tuesday too.

Of course the MCS could totally screw us over with it's debris.

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NAM has a whopping 500 joules of cape here tomorrow afternoon. :lol:

Theres a lot of low level shear so if we actually got good convection then it could be interesting.

I just think we're gonna be screwed with mid level crap tomorrow. If it's cloudy and 73-77 with dews in the 70-75 degree range there'll be storms..but I doubt we see much severe other than a wet weenie microburst

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Either way tomorrow I think we get severe, it's just will it be an isolated incident or a more widespread type deal? This will depend on the level of heating. Even if we got only 500 J/KG of Cape given the vertical shear in place that's going to cause some isolated severe. All we'd really need is about 800-1000 J/KG to get a decent amount...see Tuesday and if manage to get 1500-200 then we could be looking at a widespread outbreak.

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