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Trough returns next week


Ginx snewx

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Taunton will be sending a survey team to the areas hit in western MA (Chicopee, Springfield, Ludlow, Wilbraham and Monson Mass. area's) and possibly the Wilimantic, CT area as well if time allows to determine if any of the damage across these areas was caused by tornadoes or straight-line wind damage.

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The 6z NAM sounding at BDL for 18z Friday looks strikingly similar to the 18z NAM's sounding on Tuesday for late afternoon yesterday...except it's showing even more helicity than the 18z NAM was showing. ML lapse rates blow though but they did yesterday too...we'll have to see what happens. Yesterday we had a great deal of support and help from a very strong s/w so if the lapse rates are going to suck again we'll need help just like we got yesterday.

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I love you Steve but to verify your forecast, I think we need a week at or below normal. I very much doubt that happens. Trof associated with teleconnections from the recurving typhoon? Perfectly reasonable. But it is likely transient vs a bona fide pattern changer and I don't think the overall regime is not substantially changed other than shifting around and back and forth pulsing of the mid continental ridge which has been extremely robust this year. When you go out 14 days from now, I suspect we're all above normal though not necessarily mega.

Have you really read "10s" of papers? Like 30-40? That's alot!

Ok might as well respond,my thread said a cooler week this week with beneficial rains, severe outbreak followed by a cool period, thats enough verification for me.

First it appeared to me that we were in a stagnant pattern with a mega high block. The jet stream was way north and pathetic. I first noticed the possibility of a typhoon on July 16th. As it developed and the models began a recurve I began rereading the many many papers on implications of recurving typhoons. All pointed to the fact recurving typhoons pump up the ridge in front of them, increase the thermocline and also as a result the jet is energized even a bit. Going forward it appeared to me that this mega block high would be displaced as the ridge/trough translated east. The reason we shared in the megaheat was because of the displacement of the ridge. The increase of the Rossby wave and associated implications led me to theorize that as the ridge broke down,cool pockets in Canada would be tapped allowing for a severe outbreak.The transient trough we are experiencing also is a by product. Check out how the jet speed increased and lowered this week. After witnessing this theory of mine come to fruition in June and switch up our warm pattern to a cooler pattern and then again switch us up this week, I will use it again. And yes I am a research HO. Perhaps we do get stagnant again but with a very blocky regime in Canada progged it is doubtful we are under a megadeath ridge again. I love you too.

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