Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 After we get through the death days, next week looks to feature a strong for the season LP to usher in some Canadian fresh cooler air. Models are similar with the trough with the GFS cookin a closed low. Sensible weather should be pleasant typical summer temps as we have had for the most part all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Thank you recurving typhoon for changing up the stagnant HP location 7-10 days after and inducing troughyness AWT. The possibility of a coastal is still on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 ec ens do give a pleasant cool down early next week. they also seem to bring back pretty decent warmth during the second half of next week though. fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 ec ens do give a pleasant cool down early next week. they also seem to bring back pretty decent warmth during the second half of next week though. fwiw Seems to, trouble believing anything past day 7 but makes sense to warm up on the back side. Transient is the key, finally getting some movement of systems across the globe. Tropics get active? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Tropics get active? Trip to SC next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Trip to SC next week? Libations vacation ruined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I don't agree with any of this. It looks less hot but still above normal. No cool air anywhere to the north. Ensembles agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I don't agree with any of this. It looks less hot but still above normal. No cool air anywhere to the north. Ensembles agree This post should be brought up in December if its above normal and there's not much cold air in Canada, yet you're touting epic cold and saying the ensembles are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Extremely hot and dry, best summer ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Extremely hot and dry, best summer ever! It could start to get dry if we don't get much rain over the next two weeks... we are still running a 1" surplus so far in July and a whopping 13" above normal since January 1st. Water levels are still pretty solid at least in northern or northwestern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 It could start to get dry if we don't get much rain over the next two weeks... we are still running a 1" surplus so far in July and a whopping 13" above normal since January 1st. Water levels are still pretty solid at least in northern or northwestern New England. Also, a few shower/storm chances in NNE the next several days will help. 12 week drought monitor with the jet shifting way up north, we better hope for a few good tropical systems to strike the U.S. ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The use of recurving typhoons and subsequent l/w dispersion is inappropriately used in summer. This was explained - It may trough next week to some magnitude or not, and could and would do so regardless... more so because we've dealt with abundant trough events since late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The use of recurving typhoons and subsequent l/w dispersion is inappropriately used in summer. This was explained - It may trough next week to some magnitude or not, and could and would do so regardless... more so because we've dealt with abundant trough events since late May. Yeah the recurve rule only works in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 Yeah the recurve rule only works in winter 2 nd time this summer we had major troughiness a week to ten days after a typhoon curved around Japan, you and Tip call it coincidence. I call it a forecast which appears to be right both times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 I don't agree with any of this. It looks less hot but still above normal. No cool air anywhere to the north. Ensembles agree 12Z ENS agree with 12zEuro bringing cooler air and trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 12Z ENS agree with 12zEuro bringing cooler air and trough. GFS looks like its going to agree, nice cooldown coming in on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 12Z ENS agree with 12zEuro bringing cooler air and trough. Looks to me like a 1-2 day cooldown to normal to slightly above then torch again..like Scooter said in other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 2 nd time this summer we had major troughiness a week to ten days after a typhoon curved around Japan, you and Tip call it coincidence. I call it a forecast which appears to be right both times. I'm applying theoretics ...nothing else, and I'm not wrong - you need to understand thermodynamics and then apply that to macroscales - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 GFS looks like its going to agree, nice cooldown coming in on Sunday. Hope so... sitting in Fenway for a day game is no fun if it is hot (in between Pesky Pole and dugout...hot city) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 July has been hot. August will be hot. Sept/October warm. After that..........I'm on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 I'm applying theoretics ...nothing else, and I'm not wrong - you need to understand thermodynamics and then apply that to macroscales - My Forecast was right for the wrong reasons according to you. I fully understand thermodynamics as well as cause and effect, no coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 AMOUTEG..nothing more than a minor cooldown early next with temps still slighty above and then another subtrpoical ridge and torch again late week. gonna be a brutal month folks. Grin and bear it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 AMOUTEG..nothing more than a minor cooldown early next with temps still slighty above and then another subtrpoical ridge and torch again late week. gonna be a brutal month folks. Grin and bear it Remember my text to you a few months ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Remember my text to you a few months ago? I do..You got the heat right..I got the humidity right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I do..You got the heat right..I got the humidity right You've been money the past 2 summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 You've been money the past 2 summers. he was money last summer. but he's had a rough go of it this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 2 nd time this summer we had major troughiness a week to ten days after a typhoon curved around Japan, you and Tip call it coincidence. I call it a forecast which appears to be right both times. there's several papers out there that theorize the downstream effect of recurving typhoons can be felt in north america regardless of season...but it has some dependence upon the strength and orientation of the north pacific jet. the correlation is strongest in september but that essentially goes hand-in-hand with activity and strength of systems. part of the reason there isn't more summer correlation isn't necessarily owed to a wavelength issue as Tip might be suggesting but do the a lack of strong recurving typhoons in july and early august per climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 there's several papers out there that theorize the downstream effect of recurving typhoons can be felt in north america regardless of season...but it has some dependence upon the strength and orientation of the north pacific jet. the correlation is strongest in september but that essentially goes hand-in-hand with activity and strength of systems. part of the reason there isn't more summer correlation isn't necessarily owed to a wavelength issue as Tip might be suggesting but do the a lack of strong recurving typhoons in july and early august per climatology. Thank you AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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