0z models

[CooL]

It took about 2 weeks to finally get the semi western ridge-eastern trough pattern the models kept failing on...perhaps it will take the same with the storm, they failed on 12/8, may also be failing on 12/11...perhaps the third attempt will strike gold.

lol 3rd times the charm, it does seem like everything is being pushed back and back, but its nice to see the long range models honing in on the same storm during the same time period.

[Thunder Road]

posted on prior page

http://www.weatherof...cast/hdj_50.gif

I can't seem to find it (I usually just check Allan's site for the GGEM) but the next poster answered my questions.

Thanks

[daxx]

Tombo, are you here? If you are doing the euro play by play, is it in this thread or are you creating a 0Z euro thread?

He already started the euro thread.

[SACRUS]

I can't seem to find it (I usually just check Allan's site for the GGEM) but the next poster answered my questions.

Thanks

the 6 hour panels will be out shortly after 0100. The 192 map show development over coastal s-nj. I wouldn't sweat a 192 ggem prog. The storm signal is there and thats what should be important. We have had a few wifs in guidance on recent storms so I'm cautiously optimistic.

[Thunder Road]

and now it's half-time.

hopefully the Euro isn't a 4th quarter collapse

while we wait:

0Z RGEM also indicates a pretty decent streamer making it into SePA

[NJwinter23]

Yeah, thats a rain event...take a look at the below event (which we discussed here in depth about 4 weeks ago after Andrew or someone else mentioned it) from 1989......the 850s are way below 0 but both LGA/JFK got up into the 40s during the event at the surface...

http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us1216.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us1221.php

Another decent example from a couple years ago...I was in the 40s in Monmouth County despite 850s below 0

[ptb127]

Great runs of the model so far... What about the overrunning potential that was talked about during the 12z runs?

[SACRUS]

I can't seem to find it (I usually just check Allan's site for the GGEM) but the next poster answered my questions.

Thanks

other panels fwiy

[SnowGoose69]

http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us1221.php

Another decent example from a couple years ago...I was in the 40s in Monmouth County despite 850s below 0

BDR/HPN I think saw 6 inches of snow that day while it rained everywhere in coastal NJ/NY/LI.

[snywx]

Would definitely be snow in the elevated NW suburbs where I live, but probably not for downtown Manhattan.

Most def. all snow here.. Soundings for KMGJ show 4-5"..

[CooL]

Most def. all snow here.. Soundings for KMGJ show 4-5"..

keep in mind the euro has no precip in our area from the clipper. Both models keep the LP center from the clipper in the lakes, but the gfs splashes us w/ some precip