0z models

[CooL]

I strongly agree with this..and at the H5 level it's very impressive as well. That can even be said for the frames prior to 180 hours, which is good news as we seem to be headed in the right direction on most modeling. This is a classic Miller B shortwave depiction. One just has to hope the confluence in the Northeast is as transient as the GFS and most models have been depicting it to be. If this shortwave does come to fruition, as modeled, the likelihood for a rapidly redeveloping Miller B would increase dramatically.

i love reading your juicy model analysis lol

--so its a true miller B? looks like it taps into the gulf, the 500mb and 200mb dig to china...

[tombo82685]

Regarding the first storm system, it's very hard to get frozen precipitation in this area in that set up unless the timing is perfect, or more importantly it is later in the season with a well established cold airmass (which we do not have). This run of the GFS is better positioned with the H5 trough, but the fact remains that the surface low i well to our northwest...the high is to the east, and the low level winds are out of the southwest..which helps develop a warm nose and decreases the frozen precipitation chances. The posters saying it was 34-36 and would be snow would normally be correct, but the warm nose is actually a bit more "wide"on soundings than usual do to the surface low positioning..the H85 low is also well to our northwest of the Great Lakes which creates an unfavorable flow even at that layer.

yup, totally agree, which is why you need the low further south or weaker like the 18z gfs was showing. Weaker storm = weaker southerly winds

[isnice]

Where do you get your soundings from? KSMQ by any chance?

[mattinpa]

I really don't think we can get too much better than that at this stage. If things progress as a rapidly developing Miller B, the soundings should be fine come the important time.

[ag3]

The low is well off the coast and the 850s are shivering... doubt it would be rain.

We're talking about the norlun. Before the big storm.

[mattinpa]

We're talking about the norlun. Before the big storm.

Yeah, that looked a little warm this run. I'm sure it will change a lot, though.

[isnice]

If the first clipper came in too far south wouldn't that stretch out and amplify the trough so that the big storm goes OTS?

[earthlight]

so its a true miller B? looks like it taps into the gulf, the 500mb and 200mb dig to china...

Thanks man. And yes, it's absolutely a Miller B. Track back the shortwave orientation..straight out of of Canada (over the top of the weak pacific ridge and from the Pacific jet).

[tombo82685]

Where do you get your soundings from? KSMQ by any chance?

its just a point and click but they only have certain locations...there are plenty of sites that have skew t's like plymouth...this skew-t is from twisterdata.com

[isnice]

00Z GFS ensembles out 156 hours shows secondary low development from clipper.:

[Sundog]

It looks like there's a low playing the role of the 50/50 even though it's not at 50/50 lol. Hopefully that low is in place especially initially in order to prevent our coastal from cutting too close to the coast. As usual it's a wait and see game. I'm just glad that the initial low is on the map from day 7 so that it can be tracked from days ahead.

[1954Dodge]

Yes, much colder storm than before. With -10 850s and the low track, looks frozen. I wonder if it gets too much closer if we will have lots of issues..

The biggest issue first is where the storm will eventually track. Then we have to worry about the 540 in the cities. But if the system is strong as the 18z run showed (968mb) even the cities will get snow.

[SACRUS]

ggem stuck at 108

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

[SnowGoose69]

Regarding the first storm system, it's very hard to get frozen precipitation in this area in that set up unless the timing is perfect, or more importantly it is later in the season with a well established cold airmass (which we do not have). This run of the GFS is better positioned with the H5 trough, but the fact remains that the surface low i well to our northwest...the high is to the east, and the low level winds are out of the southwest..which helps develop a warm nose and decreases the frozen precipitation chances. The posters saying it was 34-36 and would be snow would normally be correct, but the warm nose is actually a bit more "wide"on soundings than usual do to the surface low positioning..the H85 low is also well to our northwest of the Great Lakes which creates an unfavorable flow even at that layer.

Yeah, thats a rain event...take a look at the below event (which we discussed here in depth about 4 weeks ago after Andrew or someone else mentioned it) from 1989......the 850s are way below 0 but both LGA/JFK got up into the 40s during the event at the surface...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1216.php

[LVblizzard]

Surprised nobody posted the RGEM yet, this and most other hi-res models are showing that there could be a surprise dusting-1/2" of snow in some areas of SE PA Monday.

[weatherweather]

00Z GFS ensembles out 156 hours shows secondary low development from clipper.:

hey whats the site for those ensembles?

[TKFJ]

Definitely not going to get snow with SE winds, relatively warm 850's and warm surface temps.

Only hope is for a more southern track with the clipper/primary low, leading to a further south redevelopment.

[SACRUS]

GGEM

low on the coast, by 216 strong system up into Canada

[SACRUS]

216

Another system in the south 240

[nzucker]

Definitely not going to get snow with SE winds, relatively warm 850's and warm surface temps.

Only hope is for a more southern track with the clipper/primary low, leading to a further south redevelopment.

Would definitely be snow in the elevated NW suburbs where I live, but probably not for downtown Manhattan.

[SnowGoose69]

Would definitely be snow in the elevated NW suburbs where I live, but probably not for downtown Manhattan.

It would probably be snow in the Bronx....those types of setups will generally be snow barely inland....see 12/9/95 and 12/9/05 as the best examples...both little if any snow fell at JFK but significant snow occurred at EWR.

[Thunder Road]

216

Another system in the south 240

do u have h180?

I want to see if the Miller B forms over NYC, or farther south.

[TKFJ]

Would definitely be snow in the elevated NW suburbs where I live, but probably not for downtown Manhattan.

Most likely, should have specified.

[SACRUS]

do u have h180?

I want to see if the Miller B forms over NYC, or farther south.

posted on prior page

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdj_50.gif

[TKFJ]

GGEM looks pretty late with the re-development of the initial low. 992 mb hugging the coast probably would not be conducive to snow in the NYC Metro.

It is the 192 hr GGEM though, so probably better to note that it actually has the system that the GFS and Euro have shown.

[SACRUS]

GGEM looks pretty late with the re-development of the initial low. 992 mb hugging the coast probably would not be conducive to snow in the NYC Metro.

It is the 192 hr GGEM though, so probably better to note that it actually has the system that the GFS and Euro have shown.

Thats my thoughts as well. We have near unanimous support on guidance for a storm in the dec 12 - dec 14 time frame now all we need are the details to fall in place.

[CooL]

GGEM looks pretty late with the re-development of the initial low. 992 mb hugging the coast probably would not be conducive to snow in the NYC Metro.

It is the 192 hr GGEM though, so probably better to note that it actually has the system that the GFS and Euro have shown.

100% agree, the fact that it has the storm is great in my eyes. And it seems like it has a similar upper air pattern as the gfs, just phases everything too late. Gonna be a fun week.

[CooL]

lol me and SACRUS posted the same thing

[cnjraider]

its just a point and click but they only have certain locations...there are plenty of sites that have skew t's like plymouth...this skew-t is from twisterdata.com

Tombo, are you here? If you are doing the euro play by play, is it in this thread or are you creating a 0Z euro thread?

[SnowGoose69]

100% agree, the fact that it has the storm is great in my eyes. And it seems like it has a similar upper air pattern as the gfs, just phases everything too late. Gonna be a fun week.

It took about 2 weeks to finally get the semi western ridge-eastern trough pattern the models kept failing on...perhaps it will take the same with the storm, they failed on 12/8, may also be failing on 12/11...perhaps the third attempt will strike gold.