Fall 2011/Spring 2012 Severe Wx Predictions

[andyhb]

Since we were talking about this in the July 15th-20th thread a bit, I thought I would start this to get some opinions on what everybody thinks might happen this fall and next spring regarding severe weather events, especially considering the psychotically active April 2011 followed by the significant reversal (excluding the end of May) throughout the plains and elsewhere.

It seems that most ENSO models are predicting some type of neg. neutral/La Nina this winter.

[andyhb]

Added a poll as well.

[River Card]

If la nina is in fact occuring, one would think a dry and warm fall will be on tap through the entire season and then make a big time flip to winter by early Dec....it has been this way around here the past few years so no reason to deviate from that.

[tornadotony]

The following year after strong Niñas often tend to be below average (1975, 2000, 2009). I went average/below average.

[Stebo]

The following year after strong Niñas often tend to be below average (1975, 2000, 2009). I went average/below average.

I'd have to agree for the most part although I think this fall could end up being slightly above average. Next spring I could see it being below average to near average. The only way it ends up near average is if we end up with a weak La Nina, which the long term trends have been all over the road for this winter and forthcoming spring.

[Quixotic1]

Looks like a similar setup SST wise with last year, so I'll go with above/above.

[andyhb]

I went with double above since the summer has been so hot and it seems likely that some of this heat will bleed over into the fall, with the cold shots beginning to come down from Canada/The Arctic, it seems fall could get interesting. Several of the ENSO models are predicting an average of a -0.5 to a -1 La Nina by next April (versus -0.75 in April 2011), which would possibly lead to another active spring season.

[JoMo]

Pass on severe weather

I'm getting a storm shelter by next Spring though, they are kind of backed up so hope we don't have an active fall.

The thing that worries me is the persistent drought across the Southern Plains causing the dryline to get set up farther east which leads to the storms not having as long of a time to line out. Previously, storms would fire over OK and KS and by the time they made it to this area, they had lined out, but if they fire farther east, they will still be supercells.

[andyhb]

I'm getting a storm shelter by next Spring though, they are kind of backed up so hope we don't have an active fall.

The thing that worries me is the persistent drought across the Southern Plains causing the dryline to get set up farther east which leads to the storms not having as long of a time to line out. Previously, storms would fire over OK and KS and by the time they made it to this area, they had lined out, but if they fire farther east, they will still be supercells.

Excellent idea, I'm sure most people in and around Joplin are considering getting one as well. The fact about the drought is definitely likely to be a factor this fall and even into next spring.

[andyhb]

Also, the E Pacific seems to be showing a significant cooling compared to earlier in the summer, which would hint at another La Nina.

[Stebo]

I went with double above since the summer has been so hot and it seems likely that some of this heat will bleed over into the fall, with the cold shots beginning to come down from Canada/The Arctic, it seems fall could get interesting. Several of the ENSO models are predicting an average of a -0.5 to a -1 La Nina by next April (versus -0.75 in April 2011), which would possibly lead to another active spring season.

Hmm this is interesting here I am surprised how much as of late the trends for this fall/winter are favoring more and more toward a moderate La Nina. Might have to rethink my above/below.

[andyhb]

Hmm this is interesting here I am surprised how much as of late the trends for this fall/winter are favoring more and more toward a moderate La Nina. Might have to rethink my above/below.

That's exactly what I thought. At first. I was going towards Above Average/Average, but then I looked at some of the recent models...and well, that changed.

[River Card]

Today I glanced at the nina 3.4 and it looked like it too might be dropping. Might this event be a basin wide or a west based. I know west based weak ninas support a SE ridge almost always, but if the NAO/AO stay positive that could mean mild east and central US at times. Not sure what to make of it though...Maybe look at 2008/09 or could this be a winter from the 1930's with all this drought occurring....pretty fascinating stuff, not sure what the drought would do to the western lakes or how it could impact winter but would like to learn a thing or two if anyone can chime in.

[tornadotony]

Just remember that 1975, 2000, and 2009 were all Niña years also. Niña doesn't automatically equal an active severe season.

[Stebo]

Just remember that 1975, 2000, and 2009 were all Niña years also. Niña doesn't automatically equal an active severe season.

True, but unless something major happens I foresee Texas staying dry for a while and potentially into the winter. If things don't change during the winter, which typical La Ninas are dry for Texas then I could see things being active next spring too with the EML moving abnormally far East.

[andyhb]

I'm thinking the drought may be the trump card to all patterns this time around.

[Stebo]

I'm thinking the drought may be the trump card to all patterns this time around.

I'm not entirely sold that it is, Tony has a point that 2nd year Ninas tend to be less active. So it is something to obviously watch, plus there are other factors to look at beyond just the drought and Nina.

[tornadotony]

True, but unless something major happens I foresee Texas staying dry for a while and potentially into the winter. If things don't change during the winter, which typical La Ninas are dry for Texas then I could see things being active next spring too with the EML moving abnormally far East.

I know for a fact there was a drought in 2009 on the plains too. Not sure about the other years. 2009 was fairly active in April, but it just shut off after 5/13.

[Stebo]

I know for a fact there was a drought in 2009 on the plains too. Not sure about the other years. 2009 was fairly active in April, but it just shut off after 5/13.

Yeah even this year shut off after late May for the majority of tornadic activity, which makes sense as most La Ninas are characterized by early Severe Weather Seasons. Btw 2000 was dry in the Southwest and Southeast, Texas was below normal but not overly drought stricken.

[andyhb]

To be honest, Spring next year is appearing more and more uncertain to me, a ton of different things could change in between now and then to make it more/less active. I do still think the Fall season will be active, considering the likely potential for strongly contrasting temperatures between the south and north.

[Hoosier]

To be honest, Spring next year is appearing more and more uncertain to me, a ton of different things could change in between now and then to make it more/less active. I do still think the Fall season will be active, considering the likely potential for strongly contrasting temperatures between the south and north.

That sounds like some watered down logic you'd hear on TV. My own personal opinion is that it's way too early to be thinking about the Spring severe season. We might start to get some clues as we move through winter.

[andyhb]

That sounds like some watered down logic you'd hear on TV. My own personal opinion is that it's way too early to be thinking about the Spring severe season. We might start to get some clues as we move through winter.

I guess watered down because I'm becoming less and less sure on longer range potential for the severe threats because there seems to be a lot more variables than I originally thought for next spring in particular.

What are your thoughts on this fall, hoosier?

[Hoosier]

I guess watered down because I'm becoming less and less sure on longer range potential for the severe threats because there seems to be a lot more variables than I originally thought for next spring in particular.

What are your thoughts on this fall, hoosier?

Haven't really thought about it much.

[Thundersnow12]

That sounds like some watered down logic you'd hear on TV. My own personal opinion is that it's way too early to be thinking about the Spring severe season. We might start to get some clues as we move through winter.

hahaha hit the nail on the head.

I haven't really looked at next spring and probably won't till we get to the fall.

[Thundersnow12]

I know for a fact there was a drought in 2009 on the plains too. Not sure about the other years. 2009 was fairly active in April, but it just shut off after 5/13.

Yes 2009 was farily below average severe wx wise and chasing wise for me.

I did get my first tornado on 4/29 and did see several nice supercells that week as well. There wasn't many local events either except for 7/24.