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The SNE OBS Thread

ski MRG

By ski MRG,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

i just got back. was there w/ GF...couple runs down indian summer. gf was like wow that's fast.....lol. she fell hard

nice brisk weather at the mountain. I thought the thermometer was off....it said 18 when i left by the base. blowing mountains of snow out there.

love the low thicknesses for wed/ thur....in the 510's. at 1000' feet you won't be gettin out of the low 20's.

yeah 00z nam has 850s getting down under -15C by then. :shiver:

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Logan11

Logan11

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I'm really only interested in the first clipper now because as they say ... the bird in hand :) And as Tip was saying #1 could have a significant effect on #2 so any model depictions on the 1 week out event are more for entertainment purposes.

Actually have a decent LES band set up over me for the moment anyway. The heavy dusting may be on the way to as much as a half inch if this keeps up. Of course it may be blown away by morning. Holding at 22F.

We'll see. Bad news on the modeling tonight although we do get some snow in the initial clipper which could be the x factor

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nzucker

nzucker

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Hard to believe he is referring to NE. All signs point to snow cover here by Fri, beyond that is fat blind squirrel stuff. What is he saying?

I mean all of DT's arguments make perfect sense; you can see that we're lacking a 50/50 low and west-based Greenland block for this event. We've really lost most of the confluence so there's nothing to stop a strong shortwave coming off the Pacific from amplifying into the Plains and turning into an Apps runner, changing New England and I-95 over to rain. The GoA low is really dampening out the +PNA signal as well which is making it much harder to get a good storm. Really not an ideal set-up in an otherwise cold pattern. I think the clipper has the potential to cut down on the rising heights but it hasn't seemed very potent compared to the 2nd system on the last few model runs.

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Logan11

Logan11

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I just looked at the gfs...fiction that it is. :) Still mostly snow N/W of ALB ...I can deal with a track into S.NE., but obviously we don't want a full Apps runner.

I mean all of DT's arguments make perfect sense; you can see that we're lacking a 50/50 low and west-based Greenland block for this event. We've really lost most of the confluence so there's nothing to stop a strong shortwave coming off the Pacific from amplifying into the Plains and turning into an Apps runner, changing New England and I-95 over to rain. The GoA low is really dampening out the +PNA signal as well which is making it much harder to get a good storm. Really not an ideal set-up in an otherwise cold pattern. I think the clipper has the potential to cut down on the rising heights but it hasn't seemed very potent compared to the 2nd system on the last few model runs.

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nzucker

nzucker

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I just looked at the gfs...fiction that it is. :) Still mostly snow N/W of ALB ...I can deal with a track into S.NE., but obviously we don't want a full Apps runner.

Yeah you're in a much better place for this system, as currently modeled, than those near ORH or BOS. You could stay all snow on this track whereas that's impossible for Boston and nearly impossible for Middlebury. I'll be back in NYC metro so I'm not getting too excited. It's very disappointing to go from -16C 850s on Thursday to rain over the weekend, and then another bout of brutally cold and dry air. I'm sick of having chapped lips with no snow on the ground...it's really pathetic here in Vermont, I've been in Middlebury since Friday and there's basically nothing but a few skiffs of snow on the ground, and even the mountains near campus at 2500' have only 1-2" on the ground.

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Logan11

Logan11

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This run may be extreme though. That is a heck for a shift from 18z with a weak low way offshore to this I-95 track. . The clipper on this run is modeled very weakly I see.

Yeah you're in a much better place for this system, as currently modeled, than those near ORH or BOS. You could stay all snow on this track whereas that's impossible for Boston and nearly impossible for Middlebury. I'll be back in NYC metro so I'm not getting too excited. It's very disappointing to go from -16C 850s on Thursday to rain over the weekend, and then another bout of brutally cold and dry air. I'm sick of having chapped lips with no snow on the ground...it's really pathetic here in Vermont, I've been in Middlebury since Friday and there's basically nothing but a few skiffs of snow on the ground, and even the mountains near campus at 2500' have only 1-2" on the ground.

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Logan11

Logan11

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This run may be extreme though. That is a heck for a shift from 18z with a weak low way offshore to this I-95 track. . The clipper on this run is modeled very weakly I see.

Yeah you're in a much better place for this system, as currently modeled, than those near ORH or BOS. You could stay all snow on this track whereas that's impossible for Boston and nearly impossible for Middlebury. I'll be back in NYC metro so I'm not getting too excited. It's very disappointing to go from -16C 850s on Thursday to rain over the weekend, and then another bout of brutally cold and dry air. I'm sick of having chapped lips with no snow on the ground...it's really pathetic here in Vermont, I've been in Middlebury since Friday and there's basically nothing but a few skiffs of snow on the ground, and even the mountains near campus at 2500' have only 1-2" on the ground.

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nzucker

nzucker

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This run may be extreme though. That is a heck for a shift from 18z with a weak low way offshore to this I-95 track. . The clipper on this run is modeled very weakly I see.

Yes, it is a big shift but it means the GFS is falling in line with the GGEM and ECM, so it's not too much of a surprise.

I think the clipper has generally been trending weaker and is not a particularly significant player in the upcoming pattern. That may change but I'd not stake my hopes on the clipper.

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free_man

free_man

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Yes, it is a big shift but it means the GFS is falling in line with the GGEM and ECM, so it's not too much of a surprise.

I think the clipper has generally been trending weaker and is not a particularly significant player in the upcoming pattern. That may change but I'd not stake my hopes on the clipper.

Models trended that way for sure.   If they are right, system #2 would naturally have way more room to amplify.     However, it's still pretty far out.

I can remember a few very good winters that didn't start until after Christmas, there's still time anyway.

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Logan11

Logan11

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We sent some of the Upstate LES all the way to Northeast CT I guess. :) All hell broke loose here overnight (relatively speaking) with a narrow band setting up over me and still snowing and 20F. It looks like around 2 inches has fallen. This is going to blow to kingdom come in my open spot, but looks nice now.

Snowing lightly on my run this morning....light dusting 21.3

Just flicked on the floodlight..big fat fluffy flakes falling now

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Yeah you're in a much better place for this system, as currently modeled, than those near ORH or BOS. You could stay all snow on this track whereas that's impossible for Boston and nearly impossible for Middlebury. I'll be back in NYC metro so I'm not getting too excited. It's very disappointing to go from -16C 850s on Thursday to rain over the weekend, and then another bout of brutally cold and dry air. I'm sick of having chapped lips with no snow on the ground...it's really pathetic here in Vermont, I've been in Middlebury since Friday and there's basically nothing but a few skiffs of snow on the ground, and even the mountains near campus at 2500' have only 1-2" on the ground.

Horrific read on the pattern and storms this week. Are your socks covering your eyes?

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