L.B. LaForce Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Yeah I have some concerns. Have you looked at the parallel NAM though? Not nearly as capped as the OP NAM. http://www.emc.ncep....ll/nampll_nmmb/ Also, any NWS mets have any nice Hi-Res Euro graphics your dying to show off? annnnndd, 21z SREF, still at 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Yeah I have some concerns. Have you looked at the parallel NAM though? Not nearly as capped as the OP NAM. http://www.emc.ncep....ll/nampll_nmmb/ Also, any NWS mets have any nice Hi-Res Euro graphics your dying to show off? If we did that and got caught we would be roasted just like anyone else. EC is very restrictive on its products as one would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 If we did that and got caught we would be roasted just like anyone else. EC is very restrictive on its products as one would expect. Oh yeah, forgot about that, well, enjoy this parallel NAM graphic-haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Big changes to new day 2. Sig-hatched added and 30% expanded to cover quite a large area of the northern states. Also mentions tornadic supercells as a distinct threat. Hodos are looking pretty nasty across the area, looks like this is shaping up to be quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Thoughts on how far north the threat would stretch? Hoping to get in on some severe storms tomorrow. Best events have remained south of the border this season. Could see quite a bit of elevated WAA convection tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Srn Manitoba could see some storms, but I think your best bet might be to cross the border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Southeast ND and possibly northeast SD look absolutely prime in terms of pure potential. Capping is the big question as well as ongoing convection once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Yeah, thaats the area I have been looking at: northeast SD, and southeast ND. I decided to take a gamble of some sorts, and head up that way. Models are showing a bit of cap weakening in that area. New Day 2 mentioned tornadic supercells are possible, so if nothing else, at least I get to see beautiful countryside. I love the terrain in the Dakota's Not necessarily the best chase terrain, but a close second. Illinois is still my favorite I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 SPC must have some confidence in the cap weakening if they issue that large of a 30% sig-severe, particularly with the forecast that morning convection is likely to weaken pretty early, unlike on Saturday, then followed by strong heating. I'm wondering if the cap potential might've been the only thing holding them back from a day 2 MDT, because almost everything else looks great. LCL heights look good and lack of vertical/directional shear and instability shouldn't be a problem. I see more potential here than a couple days ago in MN, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT risk at some point. Good call on this potential threat last week, L.B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Good call on this potential threat last week, L.B. Yeah, I had just been looking for a decent chase day for my last long-range chase of the year before school starts. I knew I couldn't make the ones over the weekend due to family plans, and I saw the next little trough plowing in there for Tuesday on the Euro, and was like well, i'll try that. Really hit or miss this time of year for these setups, but with my sister's wedding in early august, and getting packed for school, I figured this would be my only chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Southern ND looking better and better for tomorrow. The ongoing convection/MCS looks like it is moving generally south of the ND/SD border and ESE (also pretty early, which should allow for sufficient time for the atmosphere to recover), which should allow for less influence on tomorrow's threat. New NAM looks pretty darn nasty for south central/southeast ND and adjacent portions of SD by 21z. Awaiting the 00z GFS for more clarity, but it has actually agreed with the NAM for the most part on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 just looking at tomorrow a bit on the 0z NAM and some of the forecast hodographs...I wouldn't be shocked if there is a strong tornado tomorrow in southeast ND/northeast SD given the strong low level shear (0-1km SRH 250-300) juxtaposed with MLCAPE AOA 2500 j/kg. Morning convection will have to be watched as well as how much precip breaks out (a strong precip signal on the NAM at 0z) but if a few storms stay discrete for awhile they will go tornadic in that enviroment and could be trouble. This is all based on the cap breaks tomorrow which I think it will. I don't know if we can bank on as strong over s/w as the NAM is showing complimented with a 70kt jet streak at H5 but we'll see what happens. The 24hr RUC is certainly encouraging if your chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 It's the strongest H5 jet I've seen in a bit for a severe threatened area. I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM is underdoing the CAPE and possibly helicity as well considering possible intensity of the low level jet. MDT risk is looking fairly probable at this point. We could also see a pretty strong bow echo later in the evening and overnight if things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Judging by current radar trends, I doubt that leftover convection is going to be a problem tomorrow. In fact, I'm kinda hard pressed to find a major problem for SE ND/NE SD/W MN, say the area bounded by Fargo, Alexandria, Watertown, and Aberdeen. I agree with what's already been said...I could easily see a strong tornado, even potentially a violent one if a storm can really maximize off of the best of the shear/instability combo in that region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Yeah, that was a second concern, was everyone's favorite morning crapvection. At the moment it doesn't seem like it should be a problem (crosses fingers), so I guess I'll see how thing pan out tomorrow Staying the night in Monticello, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 gotta agree with SPC going with the MDT given the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Nice moderate with 10 % hatched tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I'm still slightly worried about convection going on over MT but we'll see how that plays out overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Yeah, that was a second concern, was everyone's favorite morning crapvection. At the moment it doesn't seem like it should be a problem (crosses fingers), so I guess I'll see how thing pan out tomorrow Staying the night in Monticello, MN. Man you picked a good chase day. I wouldn't be shocked if the tornado probs are raised in the later outlooks if the morning convection fails to affect the most prime areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Besides, we are in the 20-somethings of the month, so we must have a tornado outbreak of note. 2/28, 4/25-28, 5/22-25, 6/20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 5Z RUC for ABR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 5Z RUC for ABR... The only slight negative with this sounding would be the slight weakness in the winds around 12000' beyond that its a really impressive sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 It does seem that the area around northeast SD will remain DMC free through much of the afternoon with some elevated stuff north of the warm front ongoing through the day across ND. The presence and strengthening of the increasingly divergent coupled jet aloft will help force rather deep low level mass convergence/cooling and effective cap erosion...something that makes this event a bit more special than one may otherwise conclude with the flattening wave well into Canada. DMC looks to erupt as early as 21-23z it seems. Looks nasty late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 SPC says a few tornados, pontential strong for ND Northeastern SD in the mod risk too. It probably includes them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 pretty darn good AFD from BIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AT 18 UTC IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00 UTC THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE WARM FRONT ARCHING FROM APPROXIMATELY MOBRIDGE THROUGH SIOUX FALLS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WHILE CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION PROPAGATING OUT OF MONTANA MAY INITIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING... RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. VERY STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MAY BE A LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION BY 21 UTC...WITH STORMS QUICKLY BECOMING SUPERCELLUAR IN A ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS. WHAT IS OF MOST CONCERN IS THE ENHANCED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO LARGE SICKLE SHAPED LOW LEVEL VEERING HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS WITH A LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF BUOYANT REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFTS TO ENHANCE THE TORNADIC THREAT WITH LCLS BELOW 1000 METERS AND INCREASING THETA-E WITH HEIGHT. LARGE AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER...THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE THE HIGH PWATS WHICH MAY PLACE A SLIGHT LIMIT ON VERY LARGE HAIL SURVIVABILITY. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THAT SAID...COVER COVER MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...WHICH MAY DELAY STORM INITIATION. OVERALL...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO THE EVENING INTO ONE OR TWO LINEAR SEGEMENTS...HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR EITHER ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE THE BIS CWA OR ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Baro, que me in on what a DMC is? I've been trying to figure out what it is, but just cant think of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Baro, que me in on what a DMC is? I've been trying to figure out what it is, but just cant think of it I presume this post is made in jest, since I've always thought it meant Deep Moist Convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Fwiw, the NAM's STP is decent for parts of S. Wisconsin tomorrow. This is one of the first times I can remember it being decent this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Baro, que me in on what a DMC is? I've been trying to figure out what it is, but just cant think of it What's your target area as of right now? I think a group of grad students are gonna head out in a few hours and try and get to Jamestown before things fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Looking at Gwinner for the time being, but will probably head a bit west from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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