baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Wow, this is absolutely incredible! I just glanced over the parameters quickly, but I don't see any negatives... Biggest problem is the potential cap bust owing to a number of influences including cloud debris and a weaker upper wave/surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 If that cap goes though (which I realize is a rather large "if" considering the cap problems that nearly every system lately has encountered), it looks to have a potentially dangerous powder keg waiting to go off underneath it. Although, the MCS does appear to be weakening a bit and fragmenting towards the tail end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 If that cap goes though (which I realize is a rather large "if" considering the cap problems that nearly every system lately has encountered), it looks to have a potentially dangerous powder keg waiting to go off underneath it. Although, the MCS does appear to be weakening a bit and fragmenting towards the tail end... A lot of "ifs" tomorrow, even should the MCS pass through central MN into Wisconsin by late morning, there is still the possibility the boundary layer overcomes this by late day. It seems any way we cut it it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Looks like a potential derecho may be developing out of that QLCS in Minnesota if we can get the clouds/storms to clear out ahead of it. Fortunately the MCS activity ahead of it has largely diminished, so that's a plus. And it has a pretty strong MCV to help it along too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Watching B.A.M.'s stream, the cloud cover has really cleared out after the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 12z SPC-WRF radically different from the 00z, with a major severe weather outbreak for MN/IA. I don't know that I totally buy it as it has not performed well recently in subtly/weakly forced environments. Today is a tough call. There may be enough subsidence behind the MCS. Also always wary of that much shear and instability juxtaposed this time of year, because oftentimes that WAA that causes such strong shear also efficiently caps the atmosphere. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 12z SPC-WRF radically different from the 00z, with a major severe weather outbreak for MN/IA. I don't know that I totally buy it as it has not performed well recently in subtly/weakly forced environments. Today is a tough call. There may be enough subsidence behind the MCS. Also always wary of that much shear and instability juxtaposed this time of year, because oftentimes that WAA that causes such strong shear also efficiently caps the atmosphere. We'll see. Not to mention it initialized amazingly poor with the ongoing MCS. Amazing how poor all guidance initialized (NAM/GFS/4 KM SPC WRF which initializes from the GFS). It will be an interesting event...HRRR which finally did catch a clue to the ongoing MCS has backed off...possibly owing to subsidence behind the MCS as well as a shunted warm front/low dew points. Right now the area of interest across central MN only in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Here we go: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN SD...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN MN AND FAR NRN IA. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 231852Z - 232015Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WWD INTO ERN SD AND SWD INTO NRN IA. A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. ELEVATED STORMS HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...NORTH OF A STC-VVV LINE. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE SEWD MOVING SYNOPTIC FRONT...THAT EXTENDED FROM NWRN MN SEWD INTO ERN SD. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST... MORE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BECOME SURFACE BASED. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE SEVERE HAIL/WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE FORECAST OF STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO. BY LATE AFTERNOON...HIGH RESOLUTION AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF STORMS CONGEALING INTO A SEWD MOVING LINEAR MCS... WITH WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THAT TIME. ..IMY.. 07/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 WRF-NMM blows up a line of storms and moves it through here late this afternoon and early this evening, which is plausible along the outflow boundary from the MCS as it heads into the increasingly unstable atmosphere. Of course t doesn't even have a clue about the ongoing/weakening MCS in Wisconsin or the storms developing in IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 A little old-------- PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 159 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0139 PM TORNADO 2 N KENTLAND 40.80N 87.45W 07/23/2011 NEWTON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT BRIEF TORNADO 1300 S NEAR RT 41 REPORTED BY SHERIFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 can see the towers up to my north. up to 74dbz with those cells west of st. cloud. wouldn't surprise me to see one of those warned soon. they may clip the north metro but the better stuff is obviously yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 A little old-------- PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 159 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0139 PM TORNADO 2 N KENTLAND 40.80N 87.45W 07/23/2011 NEWTON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT BRIEF TORNADO 1300 S NEAR RT 41 REPORTED BY SHERIFF Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 can see the towers up to my north. up to 74dbz with those cells west of st. cloud. wouldn't surprise me to see one of those warned soon. they may clip the north metro but the better stuff is obviously yet to come. Eh, with the high freezing levels, prolly won't get a warning based on the non-supercellular nature of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Temperatures now in the 80's across much of the warm sector. Helicity increasing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Bizarre. Agreed----especially when reviewing at the radar----Sheriffnado???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 A little old-------- PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 159 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0139 PM TORNADO 2 N KENTLAND 40.80N 87.45W 07/23/2011 NEWTON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT BRIEF TORNADO 1300 S NEAR RT 41 REPORTED BY SHERIFF Wow...my old stomping ground and I never saw a tor there....but some good flat prairie to watch storms, however. Looks like SPC seems to think the storms in IL/IN/OH will only produce a few wet downbursts and no extensive svr. Maybe it was a gustnado since there certainly were no supercells in the area at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Agreed----especially when reviewing at the radar----Sheriffnado???? Possibly, but Kentland is pretty far away from the radar site so I wouldn't rule anything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Eh, with the high freezing levels, prolly won't get a warning based on the non-supercellular nature of the storms. maybe not, but mpx is already getting storm reports of 1" hail from stearns co. 0245 PM HAIL 1 S RICHMOND 45.44N 94.52W 07/23/2011 M1.00 INCH STEARNS MN EMERGENCY MNGR 0243 PM HAIL 1 E COLD SPRING 45.46N 94.41W 07/23/2011 M0.88 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0237 PM HAIL ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W 07/23/2011 M0.75 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0229 PM HAIL 1 ESE ST JOSEPH 45.56N 94.30W 07/23/2011 M0.75 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER edit: 0251 PM HAIL COLD SPRING 45.46N 94.43W 07/23/2011 M1.25 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 maybe not, but mpx is already getting storm reports of 1" hail from stearns co. 0245 PM HAIL 1 S RICHMOND 45.44N 94.52W 07/23/2011 M1.00 INCH STEARNS MN EMERGENCY MNGR 0243 PM HAIL 1 E COLD SPRING 45.46N 94.41W 07/23/2011 M0.88 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0237 PM HAIL ST CLOUD 45.55N 94.17W 07/23/2011 M0.75 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0229 PM HAIL 1 ESE ST JOSEPH 45.56N 94.30W 07/23/2011 M0.75 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER edit: 0251 PM HAIL COLD SPRING 45.46N 94.43W 07/23/2011 M1.25 INCH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER That is a little surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Capping is still very strong across Southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 We're getting pop up svr here in Michiana. Kosciusko County IN has been hit yesterday, last night, and now they are currently svr warned once again. Storms have managed to miss me the past couple days indicating the extreme variability of summertime t storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Got a severe thunderstorm warning, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Got a severe thunderstorm warning, lol. Has some rotation on it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 232157Z - 232330Z IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW ADVANCING SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF LINCOLN NEB MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID/UPPER MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. WHILE DEEP LAYER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW FIELDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KTS...THE SMALL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE A CORRIDOR OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE. FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE UNSATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BROADER SCALE SWATH OF WINDS THAT COULD AT LEAST APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 07/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 rapid development of a supercell in southeast IA...great overshooting top on vis sat and rotating nicely, right on the southern fringe of the better 0-6km shear 93/81 with an easterly sfc wind near that storm..looks like its barely moving right on some boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Given where the front is now, it looks like the storms in WC/C Wisconsin will track towards the region. MCD out for C Wisconsin currently, not sure whether the storms will turn severe, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 I'm wondering if the predominant action tonight might be along that southern IA corridor into IL rather than the initial location of MN. Storms east of there in WI might get going and move se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 That powerful supercell in Iowa looks to have a hook echo, I have no idea why it isn't tor warned. Edit: Possible couplet as well and it is now tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 WOW, looking beastly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Yeah that hook is large and extremely wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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