L.B. LaForce Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 This is interesting, and should be watched carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Outflow outpacing most of the line in Iowa now. Still looks better up in Jackson county north of Maquoketa, as the outflow isn't nearly as detached there. One hell of a cold pool behind that line. At the very least there is going to be some major heavy rain potential, especially along I-80 where those cells will likely train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 For the last few runs the 24 hour RUC has had a line of thunderstorms developing just west of MKE, and moving WNW toward the ongoing line of strong t'storms that will likely head through Minnesota tomorrow afternoon. Is that even plausible? Almost seems like a lake breeze development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Very high dbz on leading edge of bow about to strike Bismarck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Latest Smart Severe output for Bismarck, tracking Tornado Warning conditions http://smartwxmodel.net/KBIS.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 One hell of a cold pool behind that line. At the very least there is going to be some major heavy rain potential, especially along I-80 where those cells will likely train. Some regeneration of the WAA wing now over far northern Illinois. The northern two tiers of counties could see an enhanced severe threat over the next few hours as the complex moves east. Rockford, Sycamore, and Dekalb could get very strong winds from this in the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 SPC WRF quiet in MN tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 SPC WRF quiet in MN tomorrow... That's a bit surprising. Unless the stuff in the Dakotas blast through that area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Getting strong storm with hail in Lake county IL. with a a big lightning and thunder show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 That's a bit surprising. Unless the stuff in the Dakotas blast through that area tonight. It pushes the MCS through during the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 new cell going up overhead, tons of electricity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 This just goes to show how the upper levels and the dynamics associated with a shortwave trump high cape and little surface convergence. We are sitting at 63/56 and we have a pretty nasty MCS about to knock on the door. This system isn't exactly zipping along I wonder how the recovery in the warm sector tomorrow goes, along with boundary placement. This mcs could keep the surface warm front a bit too far south to benefit from the height falls and deep layer shear associated with the SW riding along to the north. We'll see though i'm gonna wake up early tomorrow and see how the sat. and clearing look, surface obs, and how the hrrr places the boundaries and see if its going to be out of my range (plus MN always worries me with the lakes and the road network). BTW if anyone has been following the HRRR was superb this afternoon and evening it certainly does well when the forcing is more apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 waa wing really developing now in northern IL between I-90 and rt 64. ofcourse im in SC and it finally storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 It pushes the MCS through during the morning. That would be it then, I'd imagine that things might be more active south of that area, if they don't end up capped which is entirely possible in of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 waa wing really developing now in northern IL between I-90 and rt 64. ofcourse im in SC and it finally storms. I'm sure everyone in Chicago is happy to have some water on their lawns though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 One hell of a light show yet again tonight Anxious to see what the bow brings in in a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 One hell of a light show yet again tonight Anxious to see what the bow brings in in a bit.. ya a good amount of the waa storms in the northern burbs are >50kft tall, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 One hell of a light show yet again tonight Anxious to see what the bow brings in in a bit.. Yeah I was real impressed by the light show I was seeing on the way to work, then when I stopped and looked on my phone, it was a complex South of Toledo I was seeing, Talk about some long distance lightning, 50-70 miles South of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Wow, this is absolutely incredible! I just glanced over the parameters quickly, but I don't see any negatives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 storms going up like mad, cracking good imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 part of the line now warned. also enhanced area of strong winds associated with the waa wing storms near des plaines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Wow, this is absolutely incredible! I just glanced over the parameters quickly, but I don't see any negatives... decrease the surface T and increase that slight cap a bit is my only concern, I wanna see what the debris does this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Lightning just struck a power pole across the street, so a good part of the area is now without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Yeah I was real impressed by the light show I was seeing on the way to work, then when I stopped and looked on my phone, it was a complex South of Toledo I was seeing, Talk about some long distance lightning, 50-70 miles South of the airport. Yeah even last night I was pretty far away from the main storms and still got a good show.. Here are some Lighting stats from Skilling- "4,100 cloud to ground strokes within 225 mi radius of Chi pst 10 mins! " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Lightning just struck a power pole across the street, so a good part of the area is now without power. Hopefully I'm not next.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 decrease the surface T and increase that slight cap a bit is my only concern, I wanna see what the debris does this morning. Sorry.... other than that incredible, i'm back and forth on heading down tomorrow great numbers and awesome hodo's but i've seen this crap way to many time the forcing from the night before backbuild and throw a cirrus deck up across the warm sector, or persist and build south and push the boundary to far away from the upper level forcing.. Subsidence behind this beast may be an issue if it goes all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2011 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE WEST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AGAIN TODAY WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A LINGERING PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BENEATH THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN INFLUENCE OF A POSSIBLE REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE MCV...AS WELL AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE SPLITTING OFF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH LIFTING INTO CANADA...PROBABLY WILL AID RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE STALLED WESTERN FLANK OF THE LINGERING SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL IMPACT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL...AND PROBABLY THE EXTENT OF THE LARGE HAIL THREAT...IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND LARGE CAPE /UP TO 3000-4000 J PER KG/. REGARDLESS...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BEFORE CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND CONSOLIDATES IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGER SCALE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ANOTHER ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEMS PROBABLE...BEFORE PROPAGATING INTO/THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...SRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... DETAILS CONCERNING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT COULD BE THAT THE REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...NOW SPREADING TOWARD/THROUGH SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER EVOLVING STORM CLUSTER ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..KERR/COHEN.. 07/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Here is the new 0Z Euro for Tuesday's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Wow, this is absolutely incredible! I just glanced over the parameters quickly, but I don't see any negatives... The WF may be a little too sharp and a little too far south if convection doesn't clear away quickly. The cap really strengthens as you head south of 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Getting 40-50mph winds with the main line that's finally moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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