baroclinic_instability Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 MPX rightfully concerned. I will hopefully have a more detailed forecast later, but tomorrow could be quite a local outbreak in MN/WI. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR TOMORROW WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR VALUES QUITE HIGH ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL MN. LOCAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE ALREADY IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONVECTION FROM THE DAKOTAS...WE MAY HAVE QUITE THE BOUNDARY SET UP ON SATURDAY. I am a little scared about tomorrow... Interesting recent trends amongst the guidance regarding the placement of the surface low...and also the displacement of the low from the overnight MCS. NAM really shows significant differential diabatic heating along the warm front tomorrow due to outflow/low cloud debris associated with the overnight MCS which results in both enhanced low level shear along the front as well as convergence. Should this happen, low level WAA ascent will be more localized and maximized across a smaller region centered over the cities and south central MN--which would support the stronger scenarios that both NAM runs (parallel and operational) suggest. 18Z NAM parallel 4 km tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Monster cell in NE Iowa right now. Can this be maintained eastward or does the instability drop off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 I'm sure this brings back feelings of anxiety for Parkersburg residents. ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BUTLER...SOUTHERN BREMER...NORTHWESTERN BLACK HAWK AND NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT... AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PARKERSBURG...OR 23 MILES WEST OF WATERLOO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. IN ADDITION...AT 707 PM CDT...A TRAINED SPOTTER LOCATED IN PARKERSBURG REPORTED A WIND SPEEDS OF 65 TO 70 MPH WITH THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Well, at least it doesn't have a couplet. Also, that MCS in W ND/E MT looks pretty mean, as does the entire storm system itself. Large hole in cloud cover across Central/Southern MN right now, morning convection might be less of a negative factor than I originally thought, with those boundaries potentially in place tomorrow across MN. What tony and baro posted is looking seriously concerning, especially with that monster directly over MPX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Radar hole across eastern MT doing its work right now. Annoying. Gives me bad memories of my forecasting days in ND when we had to deal with that crap daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Radar hole across eastern MT doing its work right now. Annoying. Gives me bad memories of my forecasting days in ND when we had to deal with that crap daily. A Radar near Wibaux, MT would be nice, I cant see crap right now, and its driving me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Storms over Iowa continue to grow and organize. Several severe reports now. The cluster northwest of Cedar Rapids has matured to the point that a cold pool may already be present, or close to taking shape. The next hour or two will be crucial to the longevity of this thing. SPC continues to remain unimpressed, so we'll see. There's been signs of a weak WAA wing with some small cells popping up in an east/west orientation over the nose of Iowa. Can see towers associated with that on the northwestern horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Storms over Iowa continue to grow and organize. Several severe reports now. The cluster northwest of Cedar Rapids has matured to the point that a cold pool may already be present, or close to taking shape. The next hour or two will be crucial to the longevity of this thing. SPC continues to remain unimpressed, so we'll see. There's been signs of a weak WAA wing with some small cells popping up in an east/west orientation over the nose of Iowa. Can see towers associated with that on the northwestern horizon. The portion of the line north of Cedar Rapids has the best potential for now, as outflow is racing well ahead of the rest of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 My gosh. 0Z NAM continues the trend of a significant convectively enhanced warm front tomorrow evening. Right near initiation along the warm front/surface low across south central MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Maybe it is just because I have family scattered all over central and southern MN, but I am afraid about the possibilities tomorrow. If everything were to shake out as the NAM suggests, it could be an ugly evening outbreak. Deep instability, late cap bust potential along the surface low/triple point, enhanced low level shear along the warm front, very strong deep layer shear, and a freakish highly favorable dual jet configuration aloft for mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Storms over Iowa continue to grow and organize. Several severe reports now. The cluster northwest of Cedar Rapids has matured to the point that a cold pool may already be present, or close to taking shape. The next hour or two will be crucial to the longevity of this thing. SPC continues to remain unimpressed, so we'll see. There's been signs of a weak WAA wing with some small cells popping up in an east/west orientation over the nose of Iowa. Can see towers associated with that on the northwestern horizon. WAA finally taking shape from around Monticello over towards Maquoketa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Strong t storms are also forming in Porter, LaPorte and Starke Counties in nw IN along the edge of the instability gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 WAA finally taking shape from around Monticello over towards Maquoketa. Is it me or is there a little couplet northwest of Anamosa.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 nice looking cluster in Iowa, seems to have some legs too, might have a modest wind threat down streat to the ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Is it me or is there a little couplet northwest of Anamosa.. I just noticed that... You can see the area rotating in the reflectivity too...probably a meso vort developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 My gosh. 0Z NAM continues the trend of a significant convectively enhanced warm front tomorrow evening. Right near initiation along the warm front/surface low across south central MN. Good lord, that is a monster hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Nice bow in East ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Bismarck is looking down the barrel of that bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 starting to get a more easterly movement in the last few scans.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 I just noticed that... You can see the area rotating in the reflectivity too...probably a meso vort developing. Might have been some sort of HP supercell for a time, clearly a hook in the reflectivity...not visible on velocity until the next two scans as it's overtaken by the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Tor warnings on the supercells at the southern end of the line as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 could probably use a small watch for the action in iowa pusing into west central illinois, cold pool looks good to go and plenty of instability downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Wow, that's an impressive line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 yeah that is one sick looking bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Powerful line blasting through N.D. gives a hint of the energy that will be of concern for MN tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Winds forecast for over 70 mph for one of the warnings in IA. Looks like the cold pool is developing as Alek mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Heading right for Bismarck: SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1020 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011 NDC059-065-230330- /O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110723T0330Z/ OLIVER ND-MORTON ND- 1020 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORTON AND SOUTHEASTERN OLIVER COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT... AT 1010 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SWEET BRIAR LAKE...OR 26 MILES WEST OF BISMARCK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CROWN BUTTE LAKE AROUND 1030 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Also another one with a tornadic history: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 856 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... WEST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... SOUTHERN HETTINGER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 930 PM MDT * AT 852 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND WAS LOCATED NEAR REGENT...OR 36 MILES SOUTH OF DICKINSON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... MOTT AROUND 905 PM MDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Edit: Bismarck now is tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Outflow outpacing most of the line in Iowa now. Still looks better up in Jackson county north of Maquoketa, as the outflow isn't nearly as detached there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Law enforcement still reporting a TOG to the west of Bismarck. Anyone have a live news stream out of Bismarck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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