andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Friday morning in MN? That seems a little odd. Also, its the HRRR, so I'd be weary. Hey, at least its not "The HAARP Rings of Doom" or whatever. New 00z GFS is out, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Alright guys keep it on topic from now on please...enough about that silly video. If you want to keep it going start a thread in OT and I will move the posts over there for you if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Alright, on a more on topic note, the GFS may indicate more of a potential threat for Central MN on Sat, with the instability/theta-e extending quite a bit further north into the state than the NAM projections. The 4-8 day SPC outlook and L.B. also mentioned a possible threat around the Dakotas (go figure) for next Tuesday, which I'm awaiting the models on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 SPC plays it conservative for Saturday with a 15% risk for now. "EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AMPLE SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE TSTMS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG FORECAST INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUGGESTS ANY SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN TORNADOES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Not surprising, considering potential morning junk and capping. Although, Timmer thinks things could get ugly apparently... http://fb.me/yH93kJrL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Not surprising, considering potential morning junk and capping. Although, Timmer thinks things could get ugly apparently... http://fb.me/yH93kJrL Definitely a lot of potential. I don't blame them for sticking with the 15% probs, although a hatched area may not have hurt. Never thought I would agree with Timmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see one at the 1730Z day 2 outlook, perhaps even a 30% probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Surprisingly intense storm here. Probably had some gusts to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Tops on visible blew up nicely as the line encoutnered a little better instability further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 A few cells are starting to develop around the MI/IN/OH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHWxWatcher Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 1630Z update bumped us into a Slight Risk category. Current MD indicates the possibility of a SVR watch being issued. Still warm here but clouds have begun to fill in. ...MIDWEST/OH VALLEY... A VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...FROM OH WWD ACROSS IND AND EXTREME LOWER MI. THIS DESTABILIZATION WAS TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MCS WITH LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J PER KG. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL/LIMITED FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE...THE DEGREE OF CAPE/DCAPE...WHEN COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF MCS/MCV...WARRANTS INCREASING SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES OVER THESE AREAS COMMENSURATE WITH A SLGT RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 1630Z update bumped us into a Slight Risk category. Current MD indicates the possibility of a SVR watch being issued. Still warm here but clouds have begun to fill in. Latest MD going with "Watch Likely" for much of Ohio and Eastern IN. A lot of development over the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 A MDT risk, wasn't entirely expecting that...although there was a 30% sig-hatched in the day 2 for today. Also 30% sig-hatched for tomorrow, Twin Cities smack-dab in the middle of it. Maybe Reed was right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Maybe Reed was right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I am glad to see SPC went with a 30 percent hatched for tomorrow, a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Hey, I'm not a fan of him just as much as the next guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 KTOL reported a 53kt (60mph) gust with these storms... and the remains of the MCS in Indiana have strengthened a bit, hopefully those can hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Hmmm, models are kind of all over the place on initiation today. This WRF here: http://rt.atmos.uiuc.edu/index2W.shtml?Cycle=0&Field=13&Time=7&Display=4&Layout=1 has a bunch of different things going on, some throwing storms out near FSD. It's interesting to see all the different initialization parameters on the WRF, and see what they predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Just focused on today's weather potential across the SW North Dakota region today. Ran a couple of output for Dickinson, and Bismark areas. Showing greatest instability across the Dickson areas especially fro the 23Z through 01Z, with LI's around -7, SFC CAPE around 2,200 j/ks, and SSI around -6.5. Seeing main threat with winds up to 57 knots and hail up to 1.4". Thoughts? Dickinson and Bismarck uploaded: http://smartwxmodel.net/KDIK.pdf and http://smartwxmodel.net/KBIS.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Storms going up in northeast MT. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON VALID 221906Z - 221930Z SURFACE BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND A WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF ERN MT. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WEST OF GGW AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND MUCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH SUPERCELLS.THE MAIN THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...THOUGH STRONGLY VEERING HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A TORNADO OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MERGE INTO A FAST EWD MOVING LINEAR SYSTEM. ..IMY.. 07/22/2011 Edit: Here's the watch. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 125 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL 900 PM MDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GLASGOW MONTANA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROADUS MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670... DISCUSSION...POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SHEAR WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ALTHOUGH MIXING OF DRIER AIR THROUGH DEEP HEATED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP THIS POTENTIAL FOCUSED MOSTLY NEAR THE LOW/TROUGH AND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE LEE LOW/TROUGH SEWD ACROSS ECNTRL MT. GGW VWP INDICATIVE OF STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MORE LINEAR/WIND DAMAGE STORM MODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO STRONG INSTABILITY... CELLS AND STORMS MERGE/CONGEAL...AND CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS MATURE...ALL IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW AND FORCING. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. ...CARBIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Latest MD going with "Watch Likely" for much of Ohio and Eastern IN. A lot of development over the last hour. Crazyy storms in the CLE area. Nearly continuous CTG lighting. Best light show of the year. Gonna be a lot of tree damage. Storms are interacting with the lake breeze. Outflow from storms south of the lake have pushed the lake breeze boundary back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 View out my window as storm passed. Awesome show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Storms lined up across E Montana. Looks like potentially some big-time hail in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 View out my window as storm passed. Awesome show! Nice pic. You have a great view. Pretty unique scenario as the lake breeze was push north to the shoreline. Chagrin falls got rocked. Lightning strikes all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Nice pic. You have a great view. Pretty unique scenario as the lake breeze was push north to the shoreline. Chagrin falls got rocked. Lightning strikes all over the place. Yeah. Great lightning show. Looks like after a 3-4 week reprieve, we are back into the heavy rain pattern again. This was about an inch in roughly 20 minutes just before rush hour. Lots of flash flooding on the highways this evening. Just imagine what it would have been like with the 3-5" rain event the other day, which happened at 2 am, if it had been during either rush. Complete madness. CLE picked up 2.5" in one hour, which has to be a record considering there are only a handful of days in the records books that even have that much rain for a day. I do think all that rain/soil moisture kept our high temps the past few days in the mid 90s. Had that event missed us and with our parched soils, we'd have easily hit 100+ like Toledo did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Storms are festering out in Iowa may get a little interesting later this evening. Don't see much in the way of forcing from any short waves or anything, but severe parameters are pretty robust out there. Mixed layer cape over 4000j/kg, 30-40kts 500mb bulk shear, and H5 winds over 30kts. If those storms can continue to organize and grow they could eventually establish a cold pool and the lack of forcing won't matter anymore. SPC doesn't seem too impressed judging by their convective outlook, so it may be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Here we go again for ND... URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 535 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 670...WW 671...WW 672... DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG WNW/ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT IN S CNTRL ND. MODERATE TO STRONGLY VEERING LOW LVL WIND PROFILES IN THIS REGION...STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...AND PRESENCE OF AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WITH TIME...BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS NOW IN ERN MT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN ND AS ASSOCIATED UPR LVL JET STREAK CONTINUES NEWD. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER SCALE BOW MCS...POSSIBLY YIELDING A MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND THREAT...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES/SVR HAIL INTO LATE TNGT/EARLY SAT. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24020. ...CORFIDI 70/30 probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 That is probably the biggest warning box i've ever seen out in MT right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 About as impressive of a satellite image you will see coming out of Montana. Love the lone supercell west of Bis too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 MPX rightfully concerned. I will hopefully have a more detailed forecast later, but tomorrow could be quite a local outbreak in MN/WI. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR TOMORROW WITH SFC-1KM SHEAR VALUES QUITE HIGH ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL MN. LOCAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES ARE ALREADY IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OVERNIGHT WITH THE CONVECTION FROM THE DAKOTAS...WE MAY HAVE QUITE THE BOUNDARY SET UP ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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