jpeters3 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm not so sure about that...SBCINH is only about -25J/kg and that's not enough to totally preclude that this could be sfc-based...could it be elevated? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it. It's hard to tell - the only forcing mechanism at this point appears to be a line of sfc-based frontagenesis along the WI/IL boarder, and it's possible that this is sufficient forcing to overcome CINH. Remember though, -25 J/Kg ~= 7 m/s VV minimum required to overcome negative buoyancy, with is hard to achieve without convective ascent. Could be that SFC frontagentic lift has eroded the cap beyond what is indicated by mesoanalysis. The fact that even some of the smaller cell motions are in more accordance with low-mid level flow would suggest elevated base as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 It's hard to tell - the only forcing mechanism at this point appears to be a line of sfc-based frontagenesis along the WI/IL boarder, and it's possible that this is sufficient forcing to overcome CINH. Remember though, -25 J/Kg ~= 7 m/s VV minimum required to overcome negative buoyancy, with is hard to achieve without convective ascent. Could be that SFC frontagentic lift has eroded the cap beyond what is indicated by mesoanalysis. Do you live in the Milwaukee area? Your current conditions icon caught my eye, given that it was Milwaukee's current conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 geez that supercell had about 100kt g2g at 9000kft when it was just south of DBQ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...FAR SRN WI...E-CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 272354Z - 280100Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO. CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED IN THE PAST HR NEAR KDBQ ALONG A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT AS A REMNANT MCV SHIFTS EWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. AREAL COVERAGE HAS PROBABLY BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR BY SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD AND WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES /PER 00Z GPS-IPW DATA/ AND VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE HAS AIDED IN EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG...AND SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS IN PLACE...MODERATELY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW /E.G. 40 KTS AT 500 MB/ ALONG WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES COULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT ACROSS NRN IL SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. PRIMARY THREATS ATTM APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ..ROGERS.. 07/27/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Do you live in the Milwaukee area? Your current conditions icon caught my eye, given that it was Milwaukee's current conditions. Yes , do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yes , do you? Yes. I live very close to the geometric center of the county, and have been waiting for a decent rain event to come along. This still appears, though, like last week, to focus just south of the area, and I ruled out severe late this afternoon when the sun failed to even peek through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Great looking satellite presentation at sunset, great look at the overshooting top. These storms are laying right along the instability gradient, in a good environment to produce some severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Very nice continuity with low level meso and a nice echo overhang being supported And now TOR for the cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 735 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA... JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT. * AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR DUBUQUE REGIONAL AIRPORT...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF DUBUQUE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STORM WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO IS 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALENA...ALSO MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MASSEY AROUND 740 PM CDT... ST. DONATUS AROUND 745 PM CDT... GALENA...AIKEN...RICE AND SMITHS THROUGH 800 PM CDT... GALENA TERRITORY AND RODDEN THROUGH 810 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Equally, if not more, impressive cell southeast of Galena in Jo Daviess County, Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 This is not going to end well. Rain wrapped intense mesos in an environment that frankly supports strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 This is not going to end well. Rain wrapped intense mesos in an environment that frankly supports strong tornadoes. And hilly terrain that doesn't support visuals either. 65 dBZ to over 44kft (extremely large hail possible) and a tight mid level meso that has maintained continuity from scan to scan now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 25 knots of 0-1km shear does indeed support something significant if these can make it to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 quite a few strong low-level mesos in the last few scans.. the first one was 100kt g2g at 4000kft.. now with the latest scan we have two strong mesos...one WNW of Elizabeth and the other NW of town.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Confirmed tornado 6 NW of Galena, occurred before these two storms really flared up actually. Little signature to go off of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Nice hook and meso north of Stockton, Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 tornado watch till 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Nice hook and meso north of Stockton, Illinois. Concur. Nasty hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 inhibition has eroded along southern periphery via mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Confirmed tornado 6 NW of Galena, occurred before these two storms really flared up actually. Little signature to go off of there. easy to tell by on radar, nice hook and associated couplet at that position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 tornado watch till 1am Rockford over towards Chicago are definitely looking good for a significant severe threat this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Concur. Nasty hook. This is actually a situation where although it goes against storm-based warning philosophy, boxing the entire line might be the prudent thing to do. We might have just seen 4 or 5 touchdowns in a 3 volume scan span of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 0-1 km shear north of 20 knots, ample 0-3 km CAPE (150+) and plenty of vorticity along the effective warm front. Might see a couple short but intense low level circulations out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Rockford over towards Chicago are definitely looking good for a significant severe threat this evening. Not good, especially considering the Jo Daviess cell is on line to hit Northern Lake County which got the worst of the rains this morning, up to 5 inches I believe. A repeat in the same day along with severe weather ain't gonna be pretty up in northern Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 0-1 km shear north of 20 knots, ample 0-3 km CAPE (150+) and plenty of vorticity along the effective warm front. Might see a couple short but intense low level circulations out of this. completely agree with this post and yours before this one, this image says it all, 3 strong low level circuations.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 completely agree with this post and yours before this one, this image says it all, 3 strong low level circuations.. Triple trouble... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 these storms are training too...heavy rain going to be a big problem and looking like a bit of a push south and east in the last few scans. storms will be moving into an area of stronger low-level shear along and north of the IL/WI border (0-1km SRH >250 m2/s2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 these storms are training too...heavy rain going to be a big problem and looking like a bit of a push south and east in the last few scans. Over areas that just received around 6 inches of rain in a day not even a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Possible tornado about 10 minutes ago on the JD/Stephenson County line. Edit: While LSR is tornado with the "possible" wording, that cell looked pretty damned good. Enough so that I think they'll find damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Over areas that just received around 6 inches of rain in a day not even a week ago. Some even got 5" this morning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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