A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 non-severe line in northern illinois starting to get a little more organized, might make a run towards ORD, lay a nice boundary out. LOT thinks the line makes it as far south as MDW BAND OF TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NW IL AND ARE MOVING TO THEEAST INTO SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR. TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE RFD AREA AROUND 14Z AND REACH DPA...ORD...AND MDW BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z. THE END OF THE TSRA BAND MAY STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 In the new update, 5% tornado probs extended east across all of S Wisconsin. For some reason (I think not close enough to the warm front), Northern Illinois does not have much of a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 12z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 12z SPC WRF... Jainesville special, potent looking cell. EDIT: I see it drops that thing across Northeast Illinois, nice. Should see the skies light up something fierce to the north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 And with the 12z 4km wrf comes a flood watch for just about all of Chicagoland. The slow moving and backbuilding linear line sliding south as advertised by that run would drop widespread heavy rains over already saturated soils. MKX should probably go with one too for the southern row of counties, especially Kenosha and Walworth. I can see why they wouldn't put the MKE area under one, since we haven't had particularly excessive rainfall recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Looking at the meso analysis alone would lead you to believe there's a shot at a damaging wind event and a few HP supercells in Iowa, S. Wisconsin, N. Illinois. Now whether or not that occurs...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Nice little H5 jet streak over northern IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Tomorrow actually looks pretty decent for Maine as well. Thanks for the shout out. As is usually the case though, what warrants a SLGT in the Midwest is not so in Maine. Typically the big days up here are once winds become more westerly, because then our convective debris clears out sooner. Once that occurs the elevated heating off the mountains takes over, and we're usually going by noon. Sort of like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Is it me or is there a little couplet northwest of Anamosa.. I have a little story about that cell, got to ride it out in Monticello. My shift is coming to an end though, so I'll try and post something tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I have a little story about that cell, got to ride it out in Monticello. My shift is coming to an end though, so I'll try and post something tonight. Sweetness, gonna head to the beach and I will check back later on the svr threat and for this story! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 geez some serious juice in central/eastern IA along and south of the boundary.. OXV 99/81 IOW 91/79 FFL 99/77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 50 knot wind shear and good low level helicity at present in ne IL. 700 mb temp at 11....something could form. Perhaps a bit higher svr threat than I was earlier thinking. Front just sw of me. Goshen 75 and Warsaw 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 with MLCAPE at 4500j/kg in eastern IA, 40-50kts of 0-6km shear and sig tor between 2-3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Sitting here just NW of Cedar Rapids, IA in Urbana, IA. Some good moisture convergence to my west a little bit. I would like to see the 0-1km shear pick up some though. My favorite Short Fuse Composite maps aren't all working on DMX's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Rather impressive parameters out there, I for one wasn't expecting these kind of numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Main question is do we have the trigger for something significant this evening. If we have just enough, it could get pretty wild for nrn IL/srn WI/ern IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Yeah, I think I woke up too early, I'm bored already sitting here. It appears the cap is gone, humid as crap here, corn prolly doesn't help, I measured 81 dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 While not a carbon copy, the setup today does resemble 8/4/08 to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Sitting here just NW of Cedar Rapids, IA in Urbana, IA. Some good moisture convergence to my west a little bit. I would like to see the 0-1km shear pick up some though. My favorite Short Fuse Composite maps aren't all working on DMX's site I'm 16 miles north of you. The fact that you are in the area makes me pay a bit more attention. How soon are you expecting some sort of initiation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 While not a carbon copy, the setup today does resemble 8/4/08 to an extent. Less instability, more low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 From LOT... TONIGHT...POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE NOT PICKING UP ON THE DISTURBED WIND FIELD OF THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACED TOO FAR NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT...MODEL PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH. THIS HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS ON PLACEMENT OF THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JET POINTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL CAP. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...WHICH BASED ON SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS BEEN BUILDING IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND CREEPING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A QUASI-ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MESOSCALE VORTEX. THIS MAY ALSO INHIBIT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THANKS TO HIGH INSTABILITY AGAINST THE BOUNDARY...40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND A GRADIENT OF HIGH SFC-3 KM CAPE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...THOUGH SEVERE HAIL HAS BEEN TOUGH TO GET IN THE WARM AIRMASS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR THE BOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm 16 miles north of you. The fact that you are in the area makes me pay a bit more attention. How soon are you expecting some sort of initiation? I'm actually headed to a McDonald's in Independence now. Ummm, maybe 22z? idk..haha I'm now starting to question what Tony had to say. Parameters are there, and nuts! 200 0-3km CAPE, somebody pull the trigger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm actually headed to a McDonald's in Independence now. Ummm, maybe 22z? idk..haha I'm now starting to question what Tony had to say. Parameters are there, and nuts! 200 0-3km CAPE, somebody pull the trigger! Hope you enjoyed THE McDonald's in Independence. Just spent an hour outside working - it is ridiculously humid. My weather station has us at 91/77. Don't see a tremendous amount of vertical growth in the clouds right now, but with the instability, wouldn't take much. According to mesoanalysis by SPC may be just a smidge of a cap left. More worried about rain - we had 6 inches last weekend here after 3 weeks of nothing. Big rain tonight would have nowhere to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Initiation...somewhat linear, but we'll see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Initiation...somewhat linear, but we'll see how things evolve. Yeah, it's probably a bit elevated given the marginal CINH apparent in mesoanalysis. The storms are moving in accordance with mean flow, and not propagating SSEwawrd quite yet, suggesting that sheer is sufficient for more organized structures in anything that gets Sfc based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 21Z HRRR run seemed to have a decent handle on convective initiation. Quite the mess it fires up in the hours ahead. I am currently at I-39 and Rt. 20 vicinity. WIll head west a bit - perhaps Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Would REALLY watch the storm near Dubuque... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Would REALLY watch the storm near Dubuque... Again, I think these are elevated, which will likely preclude any tornadic potential; however, the seem to be quickly developing upscale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Would REALLY watch the storm near Dubuque... Nice 'lil hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Again, I think these are elevated, which will likely preclude any tornadic potential; however, the seem to be quickly developing upscale. I'm not so sure about that...SBCINH is only about -25J/kg and that's not enough to totally preclude that this could be sfc-based...could it be elevated? Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.