Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The latest SPC Day 3 has most of Iowa, central and eastern Nebraska, southwest Minnesota and southeast South Dakota in the 5% "See Text" area for severe: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 00Z NAM is showing some potential Friday and possibly Saturday across the Northern Plains/MS Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 New SPC Day 2 (Thursday): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html SPC Day 3 (Friday): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Negatively-tilted trough + solid bulk shear (35-50 kts) + 3000-5000 j/kg CAPE + somewhat minimal CIN = trouble... NAM is even more impressive, showing 60-70 kts of bulk shear in Minnesota on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Negatively-tilted trough + solid bulk shear (35-50 kts) + 3000-5000 j/kg CAPE + somewhat minimal CIN = trouble... NAM is even more impressive, showing 60-70 kts of bulk shear in Minnesota on Saturday. It is a complicated scenario as of right now. Model guidance are all pretty consistent on the overall mean trough, but there will be at least 3 embedded speed maxes/PV anomalies rotating around the base of the mean trough as this systems slowly develops across the western US into the plains. This throws out quite a bit of small scale variablity by Saturday afternoon, not to mention there may be an ongoing MCS into portions of MN during the early day. Global guidance does seem less impressive than the operational NAM, and in either scenario much of the region looks to be strongly capped with forcing along the front the main/only contributor to DMC initiation above the cap. While this is usually a common feature for larger potential severe weather events (good capping through much of the afternoon), laying out severe probs would be difficult at this time for SPC. The synoptic differences amongst the guidance owing to the 2-3 anomalies rounding the mean trough would have signifiacnt differences ranging from strength of the frontal zone/potential initiation to wind fields aloft and subsequent shear. NAM verbatim would be a potentially significant threat with the progged instability/frontal forcing/shear fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 FWIW, the parallel NAM supports the operational NAM in suggesting a strong PV anomaly and subsequent potent shortwave rounding the base of the mean trough into MN on Saturday. While the I give little credence to the NAM operational these days, the NAM parallel has proven its worth and lends a little credibility to the NAM operational solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 ...and in either scenario much of the region looks to be strongly capped... Threat over Nah, but in all seriousness, I'm gonna await the 00z GFS to compare the two models and further assess this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 The 0z does look interesting for FSD on eastward along the I-90 corridor in southwest MN, both pros and cons with this one. Looking more into it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 GFS still not as bullish on any waves rounding the base of the mean trough as the two NAMs are, but it still initiates DMC along the warm front and prefrontal trof in the late afternoon, and it certainly is more impressive than the last couple runs. Deep later shear looks a tad better with great low level turning in a high CAPE environment. I am slightly more interested in this threat than a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ok, this is hilarious, and thought you guys may get a kick out of it. It relates to potential svr wx, so I decided to put it here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fb4O-_8f9jw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ok, this is hilarious, and thought you guys may get a kick out of it. It relates to potential svr wx, so I decided to put it here. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Fb4O-_8f9jw Oh god, that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 The ECMWF made slow strides towards something more significant on Saturday, still not as impressive as the NAM or UK, but slower and stronger with the mid level wave than a day ago with a stronger surface reflection. The EC: And the NAM looking UK: With the latest suite of 00Z guidance and the general trend the last day, I would have to think a Day 3 will be laid out by SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ok, this is hilarious, and thought you guys may get a kick out of it. It relates to potential svr wx, so I decided to put it here. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Fb4O-_8f9jw "Oh wow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 The ECMWF made slow strides towards something more significant on Saturday, still not as impressive as the NAM or UK, but slower and stronger with the mid level wave than a day ago with a stronger surface reflection. The EC: And the NAM looking UK: With the latest suite of 00Z guidance and the general trend the last day, I would have to think a Day 3 will be laid out by SPC. The wording in the day 2 outlook for Friday is already rather strong: ...UPR MS VLY WWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY 70S SFC DEW POINTS...WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NWD FRI AS SLY FLOW ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPR SYSTEM. CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN H85-H7 TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAP...PARTICULARLY ALONG/SW OF THE MO RVR VLY. HOWEVER...00Z GFS/NAM AND 12Z ECMWF HINT THAT A SUBTLE SUB-TROPICAL WAVE MAY EJECT AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH... REACHING PARTS OF SD/ND BY MID-AFTN FRI. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING...STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND WEAK ASCENT/MOISTENING OF THE BASE OF THE EML WILL PROBABLY YIELD WDLY SCTD SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT/LEE LOW IN SRN ND AND NRN/CNTRL SD. 0-8KM SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER PSBL...INCLUDING TORNADOES. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AND QUESTION ON NUMBER OF STORMS GIVEN WARM MID-LVL TEMPS PRECLUDES HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM...BUT SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER COULD OCCUR SHOULD STORMS INDEED FORM. WHETHER SFC-BASED STORMS FORM OR NOT...LLJ INCREASING TO 40 KTS AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED TSTMS FRI NIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS SEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SRN FRINGES OF ACTIVITY COULD BE SUFFICIENTLY ROOTED AT THE SFC FOR DMGG WIND THREATS TO SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE MRGLLY SVR WITH HAIL/HVY RNFL. MEANWHILE...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FRI AFTN/EVE. HIGH-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN MT/WRN ND FRI EVENING. STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND ROBUST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER BOTH SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WINDS/HAIL AND PSBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY JOIN STORMS FARTHER E OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS FRI NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ok, this is hilarious, and thought you guys may get a kick out of it. It relates to potential svr wx, so I decided to put it here. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Fb4O-_8f9jw One word describes this post: What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Tomorrow actually looks pretty decent for Maine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ok, this is hilarious, and thought you guys may get a kick out of it. It relates to potential svr wx, so I decided to put it here. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Fb4O-_8f9jw Only thing better than his video are the comments. Be careful guys, there's a definite CLOCKWISE rotation of all storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Ok, this is hilarious, and thought you guys may get a kick out of it. It relates to potential svr wx, so I decided to put it here. http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Fb4O-_8f9jw What on earth is he talking about? What is a "HAARP Ring", and what does that have to do with anything? He sounds like he is rambling. He talks like he is showing something significant, but makes absolutely no sense. He says "oh wow' alot , but apparently, the significance of that is known only to him. I couldn't stick with the video... I have a very short attention span when it comes to rambling speech. He just keeps talking about the ring pattern in the radar return, but doesn't explain it's significance, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I'm keeping an eye on Tuesday in the Dakota's too. GFS and Euro seem to be on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 I'm keeping an eye on Tuesday in the Dakota's too. GFS and Euro seem to be on track. Man, they can't catch a break... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 New day 2 sounds more promising for the lakes folks, obv the evolution of tonights action is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 Euro brings that through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 What's lacking today so far severe weather wise as the front comes through the great lakes? With high temps and dew points/humidity, you would think something would pop up. Assuming the cap is too strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 60k ft tall storm just popped up west of Ottumwa Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Small but relatively impressive shear marker west of Wapello Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 00z NAM painting an interesting picture across Southern MN perhaps into WI for Saturday, with 35-45 kts of bulk shear, ample CAPE, potentially eroded CIN, a lot of theta-e and decent-looking hodos. However, morning convection may play a big role in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 00z NAM painting an interesting picture across Southern MN perhaps into WI for Saturday, with 35-45 kts of bulk shear, ample CAPE, potentially eroded CIN, a lot of theta-e and decent-looking hodos. However, morning convection may play a big role in this setup. Good chance I'll be in Madtown Saturday. Hopefully there is the opportunity for something interesting to pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 I'm not sure on the timing of the shortwave anomaly that baro mentioned around there. 30 percent sig-hatched as well for tomorrow, West Dakotas towards the central ND/SD border could get fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 -HRRR says let the games begin Friday morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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