tornadojay Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Discuss..... ...NERN U.S... THE ESEWD PROGRESSION OF MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL COLLECTIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM EXPANSIVE CNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS SEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS BY 19/12Z. PERSISTENT WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY. LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVER UPSTATE NY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD THIS MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS COMPLEX WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...OR UNDERGO DIURNAL DECAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE W WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD FRONT ITSELF. EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM ONTARIO...ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 i'm in the poconos until wednesday. hopefully i have better luck than at home really, really liking the NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Tomorrow's severe potential has been looking less impressive over the past few runs as the guidance has backed the better shear parameters farther to the north. Check out the loop of the past few SREF runs showing the better probability of severe weather staying north of our area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f030&startdate=2011071715&field=SREF_03HR_SVR_PROBS__ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 healthy line of storms on the CF moving down from the upstate this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 healthy line of storms on the CF moving down from the upstate this morning Yeah, nothing from SPC yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I think patience is the key with today's threat. Lots of CIN out there right now but that line is many hours away and we should get maximum heating. I would think SBCAPE should be in excess of 2000/JKG right up to the coast with an offshore flow, dew points in the 60's and full sun. The limiting factor could be shear but with this type of setup 30kts should be sufficant. We seem to do our best in these types of marginal setups and with a healthy looking squall line already ongoing I like our chances of at least some strong storms this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 SPC in their 13z outlook uncertain where the storms will fall apart or intensifty on the next few hours: LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVER UPSTATE NY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD THIS MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS COMPLEX WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...OR UNDERGO DIURNAL DECAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE W WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD FRONT ITSELF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 the warm ml temps are an issue as far as establishing and/or regenerating an mcs and could inhibit a well established cold pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 6z NAM brings line into our area by 5pm. It breaks it down though, as it approaches. 6z GFS keeps the line intact and hits the whole area pretty hard. It however, is a few hours behind the NAM and doesnt bring the line in until the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 0z SPC WRF is similar to NAM. Breaks up the line of storms as it approaches our area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 NAM is still looking pretty juicy for tonight. Maybe it's not going to be severe but hopefully we can get some good nighttime soaking thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 NAM is still looking pretty juicy for tonight. Maybe it's not going to be severe but hopefully we can get some good nighttime soaking thunderstorms. Yeah. 12z NAM is definitely better then 6z for our area. Focuses the really heavy stuff in NW Jersey, but brings the NYC area a decent line of rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Comparing the latest NAM to current radar depiction, shows that the line of storms is a few hours faster the the models are forecasting. The line is flying right now on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Comparing the latest NAM to current radar depiction, shows that the line of storms is a few hours faster the the models are forecasting. The line is flying right now on radar. wow, no kidding. swings through by early afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Comparing the latest NAM to current radar depiction, shows that the line of storms is a few hours faster the the models are forecasting. The line is flying right now on radar. No surprise the SPC WRF caught that as well on its run last night, it was well ahead of most models then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 No surprise the SPC WRF caught that as well on its run last night, it was well ahead of most models then. NAM has the line on us around 6-8pm. GFS is even later, after 10pm. What time do you think the line swings thru? Just looking at radar, I cant see how its later then 2pmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I just want a quick soaking rain I don't need the storms if they're not going to happen. The ground is rock hard here literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I just want a quick soaking rain I don't need the storms if they're not going to happen. The ground is rock hard here literally. The line better expand to its west or once again the main rain will be East and NE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The newest HRRR has this initial line, that the radar has, swinging thru in the next 3-4 hours, mostly missing to our NE. And then develops another line coming out of the lakes area and swings it thru NYC in the evening and night hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The newest HRRR has this initial line, that the radar has, swinging thru in the next 3-4 hours, mostly missing to our NE. And then develops another line coming out of the lakes area and swings it thru NYC in the evening and night hours. It better, cuz that first line is very meh. Probably why the models seem so fast, it won't hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I really hope it rains. The problem is that it will not cool us down anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Interestingly today is July 18th and recently I brought up 7/18/97 in the top 5 severe weather days...the setup at 500mb and even the surface is similar across the country....we saw an initial pre-frontal unexpected early line of storms followed by 4-5 hours of heating and then more storms thereafter...the first line of storms was totally unforecast and missed by most models....something similar could occur today though I don't know if we can get enough heating following the initial line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 You can already see the secondary line building over Western NY state. There also appears to be new initiation near Sussex County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Think we get a watch box today? Lately the days we haven't had them is when we've gotten our better storms You can already see the secondary line building over Western NY state. There also appears to be new initiation near Sussex County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 New GFS picks up on the current situation and has this line thru us now by 9pm. Weak and disorganized too. 6z GFS and 0z GFS had the line coming thru in the overnight hours tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It still has precip after 6z though, maybe not that impressive but rarely do I look at the GFS QPF amounts when talking about short term New GFS picks up on the current situation and has this line thru us now by 9pm. Weak and disorganized too. 6z GFS and 0z GFS had the line coming thru in the overnight hours tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It still has precip after 6z though, maybe not that impressive but rarely do I look at the GFS QPF amounts when talking about short term Agreed. Never look for the actual QPF amounts. Just the placement and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 CIN is gone and been replaced by about 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE Initial line is falling apart and missing us to the NE Looks like a poor forecast thus far, but I stress patience There is 50+ kts of effective bulk shear with the line over western central NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see SPC remove the 30%...the mid level temps are a real problem despite the shear. It's going to be difficult to get these storms churning south without a well developed cold pool. The shear is still strong though--so who knows. That decayed MCS can still cause wind shift problems even though it's weakened, too. The 30% contour should really be back over Western and Central NY for later this afternoon if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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