phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Also the Dropsonde in the center recorded 997mb, but with 13 knot winds... the pressure is more likely 996 like the extrapolated value noted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Whatever banding-type eye-like feature we've been seeing on satellite imagery as of late is getting obscured. It apparently wasn't eye-like enough to recon, which didn't report an eye diameter in the vortex message. http://www.ssd.noaa....lt/t1/vis-l.jpg Also the Dropsonde in the center recorded 997mb, but with 13 knot winds... the pressure is more likely 996 like the extrapolated value noted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Even if the eye like feature, wasn't a real eye, one is brewing apparently looking at MW imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 looks like recon did actually report an open eyewall. This matches well with microwave. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 20:41Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011 Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W) B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open from the north to the east, S M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:39:10Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I sit corrected. =) This system would make for an awfully small hurricane (should it become one)...size-wise like what they used to call a neutercane (subtropical storm mesoscale Beta-sized, which is on the small end of the spectrum). Neutercanes used to be noted on occasion along weak frontal boundaries. That would also fit with the higher than average environmental pressures, and explain why the global model guidance has not been too keen on the system...it would only be 3-4 grid squares across on the global guidance. You wouldn't know this system was a tropical storm even if you were 70-80 miles away from its center. Who knows how many of these type of tropical storms have been missed over the years within HURDAT, particularly prior to the satellite era. DR It looks like recon did actually report an open eyewall. This matches well with microwave.Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 20:41Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011 Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W) B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open from the north to the east, S M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 19:39:10Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 LOCATION...28.3N 77.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It dropped below 1000mb so I'll count it. However it is one ****ty looking storm. It reminds me of Hurricane Shary last year. Very little convection crappy outflow and a lot of dry air, however there is a tight surface swirl somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Odd storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Odd storm. Ahhh. It's tropical season. We have a calamity loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 lol... dry air is completely destroying any convection associated with the storm. At this rate there might not even be much left when significant shear picks up. Recon still shows a robust wind circulation with the storm, but things will start to spin down soon with such a lack of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looks like its well on its way to remnant low status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 POOF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 still hope today, convection over storm again./ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Not a naked swirl. Just topless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I think we can safely say that was he worst diurnal max ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 What a nice well-behaved tropical system. Let's hope the rest of the ATL TCs this season follow suit and leave folks alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 What a nice well-behaved tropical system. Let's hope the rest of the ATL TCs this season follow suit and leave folks alone. I believe the Florida residents and Rain Storm do not wish to be left alone. I don't care about ENSO phases, I want 2004 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 I believe the Florida residents and Rain Storm do not wish to be left alone. I don't care about ENSO phases, I want 2004 redux. Well, I doubt they speak for the folks across the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Well, I doubt they speak for the folks across the Deep South. Sounds like someone jealous of being assigned to KWTF instead of the action stations like KMHX or KILM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Sounds like someone jealous of being assigned to KWTF instead of the action stations like KMHX or KILM... No, not at all. This isn't about me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 get a room you two...this thread is for monitoring the threat posed by tropical storm bret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Wasn't this supposed to be a menacing hurricane by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Recon says that Bret is holding its own, despite the north-easterlies and dry air being ingested into its circulation. Max FL winds are 52 knots, pressure is at 1002mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 get a room you two...this thread is for monitoring the threat posed by tropical storm bret lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Is the system off to Bret's ENE cold core? If not, what is the difference between it and Bret? Not trolling, just curious. http://www.weatherof...bimages=1&clf=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Is the system off to Bret's ENE cold core? If not, what is the difference between it and Bret? Not trolling, just curious. The difference is that Bret's circulation is far better defined despite the weak convection exhibited by both systems. In other news, Bret will be encountering a pretty variable upper level wind pattern the next 24-72 hours. The shear is pretty much going to switch directions 3-4 times during that span. It might not matter much if the dry air continues to limit convection, but when the upper level flow shifts back westerly, it might help to lower the shear over the system since this will be in the same direction as the low level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 My updated thoughts this afternoon... the upper level will be highly variable the next 24-72 hours, which several shifts from easterly flow to westerly flow. Westerly flow is more favorable considering the storm motion to the northeast, so it will be interesting to see if the storm can take advantage of the more favorable environment even within the dry air during these time intervals. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/19/tropical-storm-bret-fights-shear-wont-be-a-threat-to-the-united-states/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Invest 99L to the NE of Bret BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al992011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107192139 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2011, DB, O, 2011071918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992011 AL, 99, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 327N, 683W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011071900, , BEST, 0, 329N, 674W, 20, 1016, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011071906, , BEST, 0, 332N, 665W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011071912, , BEST, 0, 334N, 655W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 99, 2011071918, , BEST, 0, 332N, 643W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 My updated thoughts this afternoon... the upper level will be highly variable the next 24-72 hours, which several shifts from easterly flow to westerly flow. Westerly flow is more favorable considering the storm motion to the northeast, so it will be interesting to see if the storm can take advantage of the more favorable environment even within the dry air during these time intervals. Yeah, but westerly shear is also the direction needed to advect the dry air into the center. Kinda damned either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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