dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 48kts in the SW quad at flight level. Not a lot of variation in the quadrants, which is to be expected from such a slow moving storm. Center moved E or ESE from the last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 180700 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011 A. 18/06:37:30Z B. 27 deg 07 min N 077 deg 48 min W C. 850 mb 1448 m D. 45 kt E. 334 deg 7 nm F. 101 deg 46 kt G. 003 deg 11 nm H. 1001 mb I. 15 C / 1466 m J. 22 C / 1462 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF308 0202A BRET OB 08 MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 05:16:00Z Curvature North and East. Heavy rain inbound from NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 00z GFDL now takes it up to a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The latest microwave shows a system that's still not vertically stacked. I'm thinking dry/stable air (well defined on microwave to the north) is going to be a major factor in preventing this storm from becoming a hurricane, although it should still be able to slowly intensify in the next 24 hours before the shear gets to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Small thing, but looking more like a genuine TC. Too bad its probably fishing, the rain would be appreciated. Most of Florida has been getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Still lacking a bit on the deep convection... but visible looks halfway decent, although it still doesn't appear vertically stacked. I'm still liking a 50 knot peak intensity atm over the next 24 hours, although if it can get vertically stacked before then, it could get a little stronger than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 When trying to forecast where this low was going to exist 3-7 days out, all the global guidance (including all the global ensemble members) had this low in a band between 29-32N latitude. The ECMWF ensemble members were most emphatic on its development, as shortwave energy across Georgia and the Carolinas was stronger on the EC solution. This is also why the medium range forecast (when a low was depicted anyway) shifted from a westward drift into the Georgia coast to offshore the Southeast by Wednesday night. The first model, Tuesday night, which showed this system could be a bit farther south was the 00z NAM, which continued to advertise a position somewhat north of the Northwest Bahamas (and south of all other guidance) through Wednesday night, in forecasts valid Saturday morning-Sunday morning. There was no ensemble support for this solution, so it was not considered viable. Oops. Sometimes the outlier still verifies...which shows that ensemble forecasting still has a way to go to capture all possible outcomes. It has gone further south than they ever expected... very interesting. I'm not implying anything yet but it's supposed to be turning the complete opposite way very soon. and that radar shot is also interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Another bout of intensification in the works? An interesting eye like feature is showing up, while some healthy convection on the west side of the circulation has sprouted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Another bout of intensification in the works? An interesting eye like feature is showing up, while some healthy convection on the west side of the circulation has sprouted. It will depend how vertically stacked recon finds Bret this afternoon. Looks rather impressive on visible, but convection is still a little on the weak side. Maybe a 50 knot system? Edit: Forgot to look at radar, and I have to say, it looks like its undergone a significant evolution in the last few hours towards a more organized system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Based on how much more symmetric the convection is, I would guess the vortex is quite a bit less tilted than it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It seems like it is getting better organized and then I look at a wide shot and think aww its so small and cute. Will it be Microcane 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Could make hurricane status after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looking at the 12z model guidance as well... I might have to make a significant change in my forecast in the middle and long ranges. If Bret survives the 36-72 hour period, it looks like an upper low might cutoff to the west of the system sheltering it from the strong westerly flow beyond 72 hours. I don't know how much will be left of the system by that point, but it bears watching, since the first trough located east of the system is too weak and too far east to pick up the storm completely, and it will take a second stronger upper level trough to finish the job beyond 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 50, 998, TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 AL, 02, 2011071818, , BEST, 0, 281N, 772W, 50, 998, TS That might be adjusted further when recon arrives... cloud tops are still not that cold, but there is a pretty strong indication that a banding eyewall is trying to form. Recon will be arriving in the next 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html hello eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 996mb and unflagged 56 kts...not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 There were a couple of SFMR that were a touch higher that weren't that rain contaminated (59 knots at 3mm/hr and 51 knots at 1mm/hr). Recon is still on the edge of the circulation center, so they may find higher winds on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 also 59kts unflagged. nearing hurricane strength. i'd say 65 mph at next advisory based on imagery and recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 hopefully this is the runt of this year's litter...this is ma-on's uglier stepsister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 hopefully this is the runt of this year's litter...this is ma-on's uglier stepsister Hurricane Bill Redux... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Recon went for the quad that would have the highest winds due to the storm motion... seems like the center is near 28.15N and 77.1W which places it right on top of the warm spot. Numerous 60+ knot flight level winds to the SE of the storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Very little doubt those in the contest will get their July cane by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I guess it can't hurt to post the VDM, I doubt everyone has access to it at work and whatnot... Dropsonde measured 55 kts. SE of the center at the surface. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:58Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307) Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011 Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W) B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (311°) from the flight level center Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 55 kts reported by dropsonde at sea level.. definately 65 mph at 5 pm. edit: Vortex says 60 kts maximum at sea level.. either 65 mph or 70 mph, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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