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Tropical Storm Bret


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Doesn't have extrap pressure values, but still a nice tight circulation, and 51kts in the SE quad at 850mbs

050530 2727N 07813W 8494 01518 //// +169 //// 057039 040 038 004 01

050600 2726N 07812W 8491 01521 //// +172 //// 052039 040 038 006 01

050630 2724N 07812W 8494 01515 //// +173 //// 048037 038 037 005 01

050700 2723N 07811W 8494 01514 //// +175 //// 044035 036 041 007 01

050730 2721N 07810W 8492 01514 //// +170 //// 037034 035 041 006 01

050800 2720N 07809W 8493 01511 //// +170 //// 032034 035 047 006 01

050830 2718N 07808W 8495 01502 //// +157 //// 039036 038 045 003 01

050900 2717N 07807W 8491 01501 //// +159 //// 047037 037 050 009 01

050930 2716N 07806W 8490 01493 //// +145 //// 048041 043 053 013 01

051000 2714N 07805W 8496 01479 //// +157 //// 043041 043 047 003 01

051030 2713N 07804W 8494 01474 //// +172 //// 042034 036 049 002 01

051100 2711N 07803W 8482 01479 //// +208 //// 050022 027 040 000 05

051130 2710N 07801W 8499 01456 //// +204 //// 030012 014 032 002 01

051200 2709N 07800W 8497 01459 //// +196 //// 007006 009 017 001 01

051230 2708N 07758W 8488 01467 //// +200 //// 266010 013 015 001 01

051300 2707N 07757W 8498 01459 //// +195 //// 257019 021 028 001 01

051330 2706N 07755W 8484 01476 //// +190 //// 246026 029 042 001 01

051400 2706N 07753W 8501 01462 //// +187 //// 231032 033 043 002 05

051430 2704N 07752W 8493 01478 //// +174 //// 230040 046 043 002 01

051500 2703N 07751W 8493 01486 //// +166 //// 228050 051 049 012 05

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Doesn't have extrap pressure values, but still a nice tight circulation, and 51kts in the SW quad at 850mbs

050530 2727N 07813W 8494 01518 //// +169 //// 057039 040 038 004 01

050600 2726N 07812W 8491 01521 //// +172 //// 052039 040 038 006 01

050630 2724N 07812W 8494 01515 //// +173 //// 048037 038 037 005 01

050700 2723N 07811W 8494 01514 //// +175 //// 044035 036 041 007 01

050730 2721N 07810W 8492 01514 //// +170 //// 037034 035 041 006 01

050800 2720N 07809W 8493 01511 //// +170 //// 032034 035 047 006 01

050830 2718N 07808W 8495 01502 //// +157 //// 039036 038 045 003 01

050900 2717N 07807W 8491 01501 //// +159 //// 047037 037 050 009 01

050930 2716N 07806W 8490 01493 //// +145 //// 048041 043 053 013 01

051000 2714N 07805W 8496 01479 //// +157 //// 043041 043 047 003 01

051030 2713N 07804W 8494 01474 //// +172 //// 042034 036 049 002 01

051100 2711N 07803W 8482 01479 //// +208 //// 050022 027 040 000 05

051130 2710N 07801W 8499 01456 //// +204 //// 030012 014 032 002 01

051200 2709N 07800W 8497 01459 //// +196 //// 007006 009 017 001 01

051230 2708N 07758W 8488 01467 //// +200 //// 266010 013 015 001 01

051300 2707N 07757W 8498 01459 //// +195 //// 257019 021 028 001 01

051330 2706N 07755W 8484 01476 //// +190 //// 246026 029 042 001 01

051400 2706N 07753W 8501 01462 //// +187 //// 231032 033 043 002 05

051430 2704N 07752W 8493 01478 //// +174 //// 230040 046 043 002 01

051500 2703N 07751W 8493 01486 //// +166 //// 228050 051 049 012 05

They could use this info, plus the numerous 40-45 knot SFMR to bump up the winds a bit in the next intermediate advisory.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 180535

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011

A. 18/05:12:20Z

B. 27 deg 09 min N

077 deg 59 min W

C. 400 mb 1454 m

D. 49 kt

E. 310 deg 5 nm

F. 048 deg 43 kt

G. 316 deg 8 nm

H. 1002 mb

I. 15 C / 1462 m

J. 21 C / 1473 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 4

O. 0.02 / 5 nm

P. AF308 0202A BRET OB 04

MAX FL WIND 43 KT NW QUAD 05:09:40Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 05:16:40Z

Banding North and East on radar

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From 850mb you apply an 80% reduction factor. That yields ~40kts. It's a bit conservative if we considerate some of the SMFR values, but not by much. It's structure on radar and IR imagery shows that it's slowly organizing, it has around 24 hours before moderate shear makes it appearance.

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Up to 40kt

00

WTNT32 KNHC 180547

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011

200 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART

OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...27.1N 78.0W

ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST

BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE

NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS

LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR

LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD

THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H...HOWEVER A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE

INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4

INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OR IMMINENT IN THE

WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN

AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Slight chance of a hurricane the next 24 hrs, methinks

Looking at what recon found... could be an outside possibility. Convection is curling around the center currently and the radar presentation looks pretty decent. The southward drift is continuing it help it out too, pushing it towards a more favorable environment. That dry air on the NW flank is still close, and it could make another intrusion later today once the convection starts to weaken, similar to what happened yesterday.

2dlql5h.gif

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It has gone further south than they ever expected... very interesting. I'm not implying anything yet but it's supposed to be turning the complete opposite way very soon.

and that radar shot is also interesting,

I am slightly thinking the pressure field has a lobe rotating around the nearly stationary center.

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