28storms Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Published just prior to the upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 18Z HWRF 18Z GFDL http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looks like the HWRF is still struggling with it's rapid ramp-ups in the first 6-12 forecast hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Recon is on route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 How did you get the TDWRs in GR2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 My updated thoughts and first (and maybe only) forecast track for Bret. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/17/invest-98l-becoming-better-organized-likely-to-be-a-depression-or-tropical-storm-later-today/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 How did you get the TDWRs in GR2? It's GRLevel3 Using 248nm BR on PBI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looks like they are doing the pass at 850mb compared to the lower passes they did earlier, probably because of how close the center is to the extreme northern Bahamas based on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Doesn't have extrap pressure values, but still a nice tight circulation, and 51kts in the SE quad at 850mbs 050530 2727N 07813W 8494 01518 //// +169 //// 057039 040 038 004 01 050600 2726N 07812W 8491 01521 //// +172 //// 052039 040 038 006 01 050630 2724N 07812W 8494 01515 //// +173 //// 048037 038 037 005 01 050700 2723N 07811W 8494 01514 //// +175 //// 044035 036 041 007 01 050730 2721N 07810W 8492 01514 //// +170 //// 037034 035 041 006 01 050800 2720N 07809W 8493 01511 //// +170 //// 032034 035 047 006 01 050830 2718N 07808W 8495 01502 //// +157 //// 039036 038 045 003 01 050900 2717N 07807W 8491 01501 //// +159 //// 047037 037 050 009 01 050930 2716N 07806W 8490 01493 //// +145 //// 048041 043 053 013 01 051000 2714N 07805W 8496 01479 //// +157 //// 043041 043 047 003 01 051030 2713N 07804W 8494 01474 //// +172 //// 042034 036 049 002 01 051100 2711N 07803W 8482 01479 //// +208 //// 050022 027 040 000 05 051130 2710N 07801W 8499 01456 //// +204 //// 030012 014 032 002 01 051200 2709N 07800W 8497 01459 //// +196 //// 007006 009 017 001 01 051230 2708N 07758W 8488 01467 //// +200 //// 266010 013 015 001 01 051300 2707N 07757W 8498 01459 //// +195 //// 257019 021 028 001 01 051330 2706N 07755W 8484 01476 //// +190 //// 246026 029 042 001 01 051400 2706N 07753W 8501 01462 //// +187 //// 231032 033 043 002 05 051430 2704N 07752W 8493 01478 //// +174 //// 230040 046 043 002 01 051500 2703N 07751W 8493 01486 //// +166 //// 228050 051 049 012 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Doesn't have extrap pressure values, but still a nice tight circulation, and 51kts in the SW quad at 850mbs 050530 2727N 07813W 8494 01518 //// +169 //// 057039 040 038 004 01 050600 2726N 07812W 8491 01521 //// +172 //// 052039 040 038 006 01 050630 2724N 07812W 8494 01515 //// +173 //// 048037 038 037 005 01 050700 2723N 07811W 8494 01514 //// +175 //// 044035 036 041 007 01 050730 2721N 07810W 8492 01514 //// +170 //// 037034 035 041 006 01 050800 2720N 07809W 8493 01511 //// +170 //// 032034 035 047 006 01 050830 2718N 07808W 8495 01502 //// +157 //// 039036 038 045 003 01 050900 2717N 07807W 8491 01501 //// +159 //// 047037 037 050 009 01 050930 2716N 07806W 8490 01493 //// +145 //// 048041 043 053 013 01 051000 2714N 07805W 8496 01479 //// +157 //// 043041 043 047 003 01 051030 2713N 07804W 8494 01474 //// +172 //// 042034 036 049 002 01 051100 2711N 07803W 8482 01479 //// +208 //// 050022 027 040 000 05 051130 2710N 07801W 8499 01456 //// +204 //// 030012 014 032 002 01 051200 2709N 07800W 8497 01459 //// +196 //// 007006 009 017 001 01 051230 2708N 07758W 8488 01467 //// +200 //// 266010 013 015 001 01 051300 2707N 07757W 8498 01459 //// +195 //// 257019 021 028 001 01 051330 2706N 07755W 8484 01476 //// +190 //// 246026 029 042 001 01 051400 2706N 07753W 8501 01462 //// +187 //// 231032 033 043 002 05 051430 2704N 07752W 8493 01478 //// +174 //// 230040 046 043 002 01 051500 2703N 07751W 8493 01486 //// +166 //// 228050 051 049 012 05 They could use this info, plus the numerous 40-45 knot SFMR to bump up the winds a bit in the next intermediate advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 They could use this info, plus the numerous 40-45 knot SFMR to bump up the winds a bit in the next intermediate advisory. Slight chance of a hurricane the next 24 hrs, methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Pressure way down, 1002mb on drop, compared to the 1009mb found when recon made the last past about 7.5 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 1002 is a big drop... 50kft tops in the NE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 180535 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011 A. 18/05:12:20Z B. 27 deg 09 min N 077 deg 59 min W C. 400 mb 1454 m D. 49 kt E. 310 deg 5 nm F. 048 deg 43 kt G. 316 deg 8 nm H. 1002 mb I. 15 C / 1462 m J. 21 C / 1473 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 4 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF308 0202A BRET OB 04 MAX FL WIND 43 KT NW QUAD 05:09:40Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 05:16:40Z Banding North and East on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 From 850mb you apply an 80% reduction factor. That yields ~40kts. It's a bit conservative if we considerate some of the SMFR values, but not by much. It's structure on radar and IR imagery shows that it's slowly organizing, it has around 24 hours before moderate shear makes it appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Interesting. I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,462m (4,797ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,473m (4,833ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Should see tropical storm warnings go up for the northern Bahamas at 2am, seeing the continued southward movement, and the fact that the northernmost islands should be experiencing conditions at or near tropical storm force at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Up to 40kt 00WTNT32 KNHC 180547 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011 200 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 ...BRET A LITTLE STRONGER...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 78.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H...HOWEVER A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OR IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Slight chance of a hurricane the next 24 hrs, methinks Looking at what recon found... could be an outside possibility. Convection is curling around the center currently and the radar presentation looks pretty decent. The southward drift is continuing it help it out too, pushing it towards a more favorable environment. That dry air on the NW flank is still close, and it could make another intrusion later today once the convection starts to weaken, similar to what happened yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 ASCAT is useless over the Islands and we have RECON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 He's been busy the last couple of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This looks like on radar the beginnings of an eye like feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This looks like on radar the beginnings of an eye like feature A more recent radar image suggests this was just a transient feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It has gone further south than they ever expected... very interesting. I'm not implying anything yet but it's supposed to be turning the complete opposite way very soon. and that radar shot is also interesting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 47kts at flight level NE quad, SFMR were up to around 56kts, but rain contaminated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It has gone further south than they ever expected... very interesting. I'm not implying anything yet but it's supposed to be turning the complete opposite way very soon. and that radar shot is also interesting, I am slightly thinking the pressure field has a lobe rotating around the nearly stationary center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well so much for my post 36 hrs ago saying Bret may wait until August. Bret does appear to be organizing pretty decently this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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