Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 getting some strange data 55-60 kt on the SFMR unflagged Courtesy of Bermuda Triangle wormholes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 pressure 1009.3 last pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Center has moved SE from the last pass, getting close to 78W 000URNT12 KNHC 172108 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011 A. 17/20:54:00Z B. 27 deg 30 min N 078 deg 06 min W C. NA D. 45 kt E. 041 deg 25 nm F. 060 deg 43 kt G. 041 deg 25 nm H. EXTRAP 1009 mb I. 18 C / 178 m J. 24 C / 178 m K. 21 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1234 / 01 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 16 MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 20:45:20Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 If recon finding are found not to be erroneous, this could be declared a TS at 8 in a special statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 If recon finding are found not to be erroneous, this could be declared a TS at 8 in a special statement Wouldn't need a special statement, since there are watches up, an intermediate advisory is scheduled for 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 cooling tops around the COC the past 1 HR or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks like the NHC dropped the ball once more with their call to keep TD2 as a TD. Look at the rainfall rate. Rainfall contamination will cause SFMR to be well off at times. These readings are bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Look at the rainfall rate. Rainfall contamination will cause SFMR to be well off at times. These readings are bogus. That's true. Regardless...recon supports an upgrade to TS status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks like the NHC dropped the ball once more with their call to keep TD2 as a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Great display of how the SFMR can be affective by heavy rain rates on the last update From forth to last, to second to last, the observations are highest 10 second wind during the 30 second period, SFMR wind, and rainfall rate. The recon plane was a good deal from the center of the storm, and the flight winds were fairly constant. However, we see that there was a heavy burst of precip it went through, with rainfall rates getting fairly high for a moment. While the flight level winds are somewhat constant, the SFMR jumps up to 52kts, surrounded by readings much less than that. 212600 2657N 07746W 9926 00192 0147 +224 +216 196024 025 029 008 03 212630 2657N 07745W 9885 00227 0148 +204 //// 198019 020 043 014 05 212700 2656N 07743W 9932 00186 0148 +197 //// 186019 020 052 023 05 212730 2656N 07742W 9867 00243 0149 +196 //// 190020 021 046 026 01 212800 2655N 07740W 9900 00215 0149 +199 +194 185020 021 041 022 03 212830 2655N 07739W 9925 00193 0148 +208 +191 179020 021 036 016 00 212900 2655N 07737W 9919 00198 0147 +229 +189 168020 021 026 013 03 212930 2655N 07736W 9923 00195 0146 +234 +189 162022 023 027 020 03 213000 2655N 07734W 9917 00200 0147 +231 +192 165021 021 023 007 03 213030 2655N 07732W 9920 00198 0147 +230 +195 168019 019 025 006 00 213100 2654N 07731W 9921 00196 0147 +232 +197 171019 020 024 007 00 213130 2654N 07729W 9921 00197 0147 +233 +199 166016 016 025 006 00 213200 2653N 07728W 9921 00197 0148 +233 +200 168018 019 027 004 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This one's very close to home Unfortunately, I think that even IF we can get it to wobble west a tad tonight, dry air to the west of the CoC and northerly shear should keep the strongest winds and attendant convection east of center, with little or no effects on FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 That's true. Regardless...recon supports an upgrade to TS status. Not necessarily... the NHC explained their argument well for not upgrading TD2 to Bret. They stated that convective organization was lacking despite wind support. Next time read a bit more before posting your allegations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 SFMR? Great display of how the SREF can be affective by heavy rain rates on the last update From forth to last, to second to last, the observations are highest 10 second wind during the 30 second period, SREF wind, and rainfall rate. The recon plane was a good deal from the center of the storm, and the flight winds were fairly constant. However, we see that there was a heavy burst of precip it went through, with rainfall rates getting fairly high for a moment. While the flight level winds are somewhat constant, the SREF jumps up to 52kts, surrounded by readings much less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 That's true. Regardless...recon supports an upgrade to TS status. No, it doesn't. The NHC is correct in that the lack of impressive convection would prevent the tropical storm force winds mixing down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 SFMR? Didn't edit it fast enough. As soon as I posted, I thought, why the hell did I just do that, guess I was thinking of the model with that name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 1008.9mb right on 78W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 No, it doesn't. The NHC is correct in that the lack of impressive convection would prevent the tropical storm force winds mixing down to the surface. If the surface estimate winds were lower I'd agree with the NHC with respect to the winds not mixing down, but both the FL and Surface estimates support TS strength, almost sounds like the NHC are trying to find reasons not to upgrade! Why would you discount both and go with a lower estimate than what actual evidence suggests? This is why a few people are abit confused with just 30kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 172204 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011 A. 17/21:51:20Z D. 35 kt H. EXTRAP 1009 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Well, I'm in Ocracoke from Tuesday until next Sunday... so i'm hoping this things gets big and at least comes close to the coast for some nice waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 If the surface estimate winds were lower I'd agree with the NHC with respect to the winds not mixing down, but both the FL and Surface estimates support TS strength, almost sounds like the NHC are trying to find reasons not to upgrade! Why would you discount both and go with a lower estimate than what actual evidence suggests? This is why a few people are abit confused with just 30kts. 000 URNT12 KNHC 172204 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011 A. 17/21:51:20Z D. 35 kt H. EXTRAP 1009 mb You guys are being thick headed... just because the recon on board estimates 35 knot surface winds does not mean that is what is occuring on the surface. The quote below is from the NHC forecast discussion. They reason that despite both SFMR and Flight level winds supporting TS force winds... convection is too weak to mix those winds down to the surface. Again please read before you post. ALTHOUGH WINDS OFTROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE MEASURED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARDTHE PLANE...THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE. PEAKFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 44 KT WHICH WOULDNORMALLY INDICATE A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IN THISCASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACEAS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Recon is now pulling out for the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 They will upgrade when there is more convection or some pressure drops , which is why I agree with them right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ^ I was off the subject a while ago... Just posted the new VDM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Of course not, I do know that...its just the flight level winds also support 35kts as well as the surface estimates, its not like one supports and the other doesn't, they both give pretty good weight towards a 35kts strength rather than 30kts...and its not just one isolated wind report, its been the same for the last 2hrs or so...and yes its an estimate but its not one without other evidence backing it up.... Going to need a big burst for the NHC to upgrade it from the looks of things, convection is just a little too skimpy at the moment for them to upgrade. Ps, I think its going to struggle anyway to get much beyond where it is fwiw in terms of strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 That's a wrap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like the dry air is winning, I think we'll have to wait til morning for the upgrade because it looks skimpy right now, if it cant get rid of the dry air, it isnt getting any stronger than it is right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ...Tropical depression strengthens...becomes the second tropicalstorm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season... summary of 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...27.5n 78.1wabout 100 mi...165 km NW of Great Abaco Islandmaximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hpresent movement...SSE or 145 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/hminimum central pressure...1009 mb...29.80 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Just been designated Tropical storm bret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks like it picked up enoguh convection to be upgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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