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Tropical Storm Bret


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Center has moved SE from the last pass, getting close to 78W

000

URNT12 KNHC 172108

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011

A. 17/20:54:00Z

B. 27 deg 30 min N

078 deg 06 min W

C. NA

D. 45 kt

E. 041 deg 25 nm

F. 060 deg 43 kt

G. 041 deg 25 nm

H. EXTRAP 1009 mb

I. 18 C / 178 m

J. 24 C / 178 m

K. 21 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1234 / 01

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF304 01BBA INVEST OB 16

MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 20:45:20Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT

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Great display of how the SFMR can be affective by heavy rain rates on the last update

From forth to last, to second to last, the observations are highest 10 second wind during the 30 second period, SFMR wind, and rainfall rate.

The recon plane was a good deal from the center of the storm, and the flight winds were fairly constant. However, we see that there was a heavy burst of precip it went through, with rainfall rates getting fairly high for a moment. While the flight level winds are somewhat constant, the SFMR jumps up to 52kts, surrounded by readings much less than that.


212600 2657N 07746W 9926 00192 0147 +224 +216 196024 025 029 008 03
212630 2657N 07745W 9885 00227 0148 +204 //// 198019 020 043 014 05
212700 2656N 07743W 9932 00186 0148 +197 //// 186019 020 052 023 05
212730 2656N 07742W 9867 00243 0149 +196 //// 190020 021 046 026 01
212800 2655N 07740W 9900 00215 0149 +199 +194 185020 021 041 022 03
212830 2655N 07739W 9925 00193 0148 +208 +191 179020 021 036 016 00
212900 2655N 07737W 9919 00198 0147 +229 +189 168020 021 026 013 03
212930 2655N 07736W 9923 00195 0146 +234 +189 162022 023 027 020 03
213000 2655N 07734W 9917 00200 0147 +231 +192 165021 021 023 007 03
213030 2655N 07732W 9920 00198 0147 +230 +195 168019 019 025 006 00
213100 2654N 07731W 9921 00196 0147 +232 +197 171019 020 024 007 00
213130 2654N 07729W 9921 00197 0147 +233 +199 166016 016 025 006 00
213200 2653N 07728W 9921 00197 0148 +233 +200 168018 019 027 004 03

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That's true.

Regardless...recon supports an upgrade to TS status.

Not necessarily... the NHC explained their argument well for not upgrading TD2 to Bret. They stated that convective organization was lacking despite wind support. Next time read a bit more before posting your allegations.

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SFMR? :lol:

Great display of how the SREF can be affective by heavy rain rates on the last update

From forth to last, to second to last, the observations are highest 10 second wind during the 30 second period, SREF wind, and rainfall rate.

The recon plane was a good deal from the center of the storm, and the flight winds were fairly constant. However, we see that there was a heavy burst of precip it went through, with rainfall rates getting fairly high for a moment. While the flight level winds are somewhat constant, the SREF jumps up to 52kts, surrounded by readings much less than that.

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No, it doesn't. The NHC is correct in that the lack of impressive convection would prevent the tropical storm force winds mixing down to the surface.

If the surface estimate winds were lower I'd agree with the NHC with respect to the winds not mixing down, but both the FL and Surface estimates support TS strength, almost sounds like the NHC are trying to find reasons not to upgrade!

Why would you discount both and go with a lower estimate than what actual evidence suggests? This is why a few people are abit confused with just 30kts.

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If the surface estimate winds were lower I'd agree with the NHC with respect to the winds not mixing down, but both the FL and Surface estimates support TS strength, almost sounds like the NHC are trying to find reasons not to upgrade!

Why would you discount both and go with a lower estimate than what actual evidence suggests? This is why a few people are abit confused with just 30kts.

000

URNT12 KNHC 172204

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011

A. 17/21:51:20Z

D. 35 kt

H. EXTRAP 1009 mb

You guys are being thick headed... just because the recon on board estimates 35 knot surface winds does not mean that is what is occuring on the surface. The quote below is from the NHC forecast discussion. They reason that despite both SFMR and Flight level winds supporting TS force winds... convection is too weak to mix those winds down to the surface. Again please read before you post.

ALTHOUGH WINDS OFTROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE MEASURED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARDTHE PLANE...THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE. PEAKFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 44 KT WHICH WOULDNORMALLY INDICATE A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IN THISCASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACEAS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS.
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Of course not, I do know that...its just the flight level winds also support 35kts as well as the surface estimates, its not like one supports and the other doesn't, they both give pretty good weight towards a 35kts strength rather than 30kts...and its not just one isolated wind report, its been the same for the last 2hrs or so...and yes its an estimate but its not one without other evidence backing it up....

Going to need a big burst for the NHC to upgrade it from the looks of things, convection is just a little too skimpy at the moment for them to upgrade.

Ps, I think its going to struggle anyway to get much beyond where it is fwiw in terms of strength...

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...Tropical depression strengthens...becomes the second tropicalstorm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season...

summary of 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...information----------------------------------------------location...27.5n 78.1wabout 100 mi...165 km NW of Great Abaco Islandmaximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/hpresent movement...SSE or 145 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/hminimum central pressure...1009 mb...29.80 inches

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