Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I feel like they should have gone with a code red, but I think they are waiting for recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Quick look at buoy data near the possible TD seems to indicated a broad area of low pressure at the surface based on wind directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It is like they pretty much ignored the WINDSAT pass earlier this morning or surface buoy obs which have indicated winds approaching 25 knots on the north side of the circulation outside of the convection. Going with 40% is rather conservative, especially considering Stewart was writing part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Probably not getting below 1000mb no model shows that except the HWRF. Dead to me. Where's the real storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Probably not getting below 1000mb no model shows that except the HWRF. Dead to me. Where's the real storm? It is July....expecting nothing like record-breaking Tropical Cyclone genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Recon is there, I think they'll find at least a depression, but looks can be decieving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Based on the excellent banding on radar out of Melbourne, and the tight vis signature, I think this is a TC. Pretty surprised it developed so quickly. Radar center at 27.8 N, 78.5 W, and drifting almost due south. The vortex does appear to be tilted significantly at this time, i.e. it's getting sheared pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Based on the excellent banding on radar out of Melbourne, and the tight vis signature, I think this is a TC. Pretty surprised it developed so quickly. Radar center at 27.8 N, 78.5 W, and drifting almost due south. The vortex does appear to be tilted significantly at this time, i.e. it's getting sheared pretty good. recon flying east at 28N winds went from NNE/N to ESE around 78.2W so the center is at that Long and likely a hair south of 28N so that matches up well lowest pressure so far 1015.6mb max flw 29 kts they are now in the NE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 recon flying east at 28N winds went from NNE/N to SE around 78.5W so the center is at that Long and likley a hair south of 28N so that matches up well lowest pressure so far 1015.6mb max flw 29 kts they are now in the NE quad Peak SFMR is 33 kt so far, I suspect values will increase as they go east. We'll need a N-S pass to get a solid confirmation that this is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 32kts flight level 83400 2805N 07813W 9885 00233 0153 +221 +185 110032 032 034 000 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 183330 2804N 07814W 9885 00232 0153 +221 +184 109032 032 035 001 00 35 kt not flagged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 18Z SHIP= 50kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 There has been an increasing amount of separation of the convection and the llc as observed on visible imagery although I think this is more due to the system ingesting dry air rather than strong shear coming into the equation. Recon is making a N/S pass into the storm, should confirm the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks like a tropical storm with a rather tight 1010mb low, 44kts winds at flight level. Very short distance to go from Northeast winds at 44 kts to Southwest winds at 30+ kts 192230 2754N 07817W 9907 00205 0143 +218 +204 076026 026 024 001 00 192300 2753N 07817W 9907 00205 0143 +216 +203 071027 028 026 000 00 192330 2751N 07818W 9907 00204 0142 +218 +202 072029 029 027 001 00 192400 2749N 07818W 9908 00201 0140 +217 +200 076028 030 029 001 00 192430 2748N 07819W 9905 00203 0139 +210 +198 070031 032 032 003 00 192500 2746N 07819W 9907 00198 0135 +213 +194 061034 035 032 005 00 192530 2745N 07819W 9910 00191 0132 +212 +190 057037 038 035 002 03 192600 2743N 07820W 9908 00190 0128 +208 +185 054040 041 039 005 03 192630 2741N 07820W 9903 00189 0121 +207 +182 045043 044 043 004 03 192700 2739N 07820W 9905 00178 0111 +216 +180 040037 044 042 004 03 192730 2738N 07820W 9905 00172 0104 +231 +179 010023 025 028 004 03 192800 2736N 07819W 9910 00167 0102 +235 +182 341017 019 024 001 03 192830 2735N 07818W 9907 00169 0100 +233 +186 302017 019 023 003 03 192900 2735N 07816W 9902 00172 0100 +228 +191 264021 027 027 005 00 192930 2734N 07814W 9905 00177 0110 +227 +194 229031 032 /// /// 03 193000 2733N 07814W 9900 00185 0113 +226 +196 240029 030 033 003 03 193030 2732N 07815W 9908 00178 0115 +225 +198 256032 033 035 001 00 193100 2731N 07816W 9906 00184 0118 +225 +201 265031 032 033 001 00 193130 2730N 07817W 9915 00180 0122 +225 +203 272030 030 030 003 03 193200 2730N 07819W 9896 00198 0124 +223 +205 288029 030 032 000 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Lot of W wind and 1010 mb. Upgrade likely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 44 knot Flight level winds wound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 1010mb and another un flagged 35kt surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Found the circulation... robust 25+ knot winds on both sides too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Really tight surface low.. NE to SW in 10 miles with >25 kts. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This is pretty much undeniably T.S. Bret right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This is pretty much undeniably T.S. Bret right now. Yup. Can't wait to see the first model runs with the recon data ingested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Pasch/Stewart Recon pretty much confirms that 98L is/has been at least a tropical depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Pasch/Stewart Recon pretty much confirms that 98L is/has been at least a tropical depression. I guess you would have upgraded with RECON in the air nearing 98L without data. Gotcha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 IMO, if this organizes/strengthens quickly, it will have a better chance of lingering around the EC of FL, or perhaps turning a bit more to the west. I think all models that have this as a weak entity (all of them at this point) are sending this too much (or too quickly) to the NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Pasch/Stewart Recon pretty much confirms that 98L is/has been at least a tropical depression. Well, now their going to have to hoist at least TS watches for the FL E Coast. From a EM point of view, going from nothing to something rapidly is a real headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 HH's turning back in quickly for another pass. Hoping for a clearer shot this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al022011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 IMO, if this organizes/strengthens quickly, it will have a better chance of lingering around the EC of FL, or perhaps turning a bit more to the west. I think all models that have this as a weak entity (all of them at this point) are sending this too much (or too quickly) to the NE... We are indeed in a strange steering pattern due to the monster high over the plains, deep steering will send it SW, especially as that high comes east. GFS still trying to drag it around the Bermuda high instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 We have TD 2 it seems... invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al022011.ren 17-Jul-2011 19:55 1.3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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