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Tropical Storm Bret


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It is like they pretty much ignored the WINDSAT pass earlier this morning or surface buoy obs which have indicated winds approaching 25 knots on the north side of the circulation outside of the convection. Going with 40% is rather conservative, especially considering Stewart was writing part of it.

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Based on the excellent banding on radar out of Melbourne, and the tight vis signature, I think this is a TC. Pretty surprised it developed so quickly.

Radar center at 27.8 N, 78.5 W, and drifting almost due south. The vortex does appear to be tilted significantly at this time, i.e. it's getting sheared pretty good.

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Based on the excellent banding on radar out of Melbourne, and the tight vis signature, I think this is a TC. Pretty surprised it developed so quickly.

Radar center at 27.8 N, 78.5 W, and drifting almost due south. The vortex does appear to be tilted significantly at this time, i.e. it's getting sheared pretty good.

recon flying east at 28N winds went from NNE/N to ESE around 78.2W so the center is at that Long and likely a hair south of 28N so that matches up well

lowest pressure so far 1015.6mb max flw 29 kts they are now in the NE quad

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recon flying east at 28N winds went from NNE/N to SE around 78.5W so the center is at that Long and likley a hair south of 28N so that matches up well

lowest pressure so far 1015.6mb max flw 29 kts they are now in the NE quad

Peak SFMR is 33 kt so far, I suspect values will increase as they go east. We'll need a N-S pass to get a solid confirmation that this is closed.

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There has been an increasing amount of separation of the convection and the llc as observed on visible imagery although I think this is more due to the system ingesting dry air rather than strong shear coming into the equation. Recon is making a N/S pass into the storm, should confirm the circulation.

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Looks like a tropical storm with a rather tight 1010mb low, 44kts winds at flight level. Very short distance to go from Northeast winds at 44 kts to Southwest winds at 30+ kts

192230 2754N 07817W 9907 00205 0143 +218 +204 076026 026 024 001 00

192300 2753N 07817W 9907 00205 0143 +216 +203 071027 028 026 000 00

192330 2751N 07818W 9907 00204 0142 +218 +202 072029 029 027 001 00

192400 2749N 07818W 9908 00201 0140 +217 +200 076028 030 029 001 00

192430 2748N 07819W 9905 00203 0139 +210 +198 070031 032 032 003 00

192500 2746N 07819W 9907 00198 0135 +213 +194 061034 035 032 005 00

192530 2745N 07819W 9910 00191 0132 +212 +190 057037 038 035 002 03

192600 2743N 07820W 9908 00190 0128 +208 +185 054040 041 039 005 03

192630 2741N 07820W 9903 00189 0121 +207 +182 045043 044 043 004 03

192700 2739N 07820W 9905 00178 0111 +216 +180 040037 044 042 004 03

192730 2738N 07820W 9905 00172 0104 +231 +179 010023 025 028 004 03

192800 2736N 07819W 9910 00167 0102 +235 +182 341017 019 024 001 03

192830 2735N 07818W 9907 00169 0100 +233 +186 302017 019 023 003 03

192900 2735N 07816W 9902 00172 0100 +228 +191 264021 027 027 005 00

192930 2734N 07814W 9905 00177 0110 +227 +194 229031 032 /// /// 03

193000 2733N 07814W 9900 00185 0113 +226 +196 240029 030 033 003 03

193030 2732N 07815W 9908 00178 0115 +225 +198 256032 033 035 001 00

193100 2731N 07816W 9906 00184 0118 +225 +201 265031 032 033 001 00

193130 2730N 07817W 9915 00180 0122 +225 +203 272030 030 030 003 03

193200 2730N 07819W 9896 00198 0124 +223 +205 288029 030 032 000 00

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IMO, if this organizes/strengthens quickly, it will have a better chance of lingering around the EC of FL, or perhaps turning a bit more to the west. I think all models that have this as a weak entity (all of them at this point) are sending this too much (or too quickly) to the NE...

We are indeed in a strange steering pattern due to the monster high over the plains, deep steering will send it SW, especially as that high comes east.

GFS still trying to drag it around the Bermuda high instead.

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