GaWx Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wxman57, a well-respected and conservative tropical met., thinks this is already a TD! Kudos to Mr. Stewart for first getting attention paid to this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 TRMM at 12z this morning had 35 kts on the E side.. I don't know how reliable that instrument is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wxman57, a well-respected and conservative tropical met., thinks this is already a TD! Kudo's to Mr. Stewart for first getting attention paid to this yesterday. Yeah. Now I know that it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This looks like aTD to me on the visible...the only issues are the high pressure, which may mean most of the system is still at the mid levels, and the location of the surface low pressure is rising at the bouys closest but there isn't really any data near the center also the COC at the low levels may be reforming more SE then the 12z position perhaps near that new over shoting top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 WINDSAT has a decently closed circulation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 30KT wind report on the north side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Recon is a go.. leaves at 12:15 pm EST and will arrive at Invest 98L at 1:30-2:00 PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Based on KMLB radar, the center would be at 27.9 degrees North, 78.1 degrees West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 This might even be a low end tropical storm, we wont know until recon gets there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 FWIW there was another flare up along the coast of Mexico last night that looked close to a TD. but is now inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Will be fun to watch this system because it looks like both a tricky track and intensity forecast. Right now the system is in a favorable environment sandwiched in between a mid-level ridge and trough. However, the upper level features are displaced east of their mid level counterparts. This makes things interesting because the low level flow is light westerly while the upper level flow is easterly. The strength of the storm in this case will have a greater impact on the motion than normal with a more vertically deep storm staying put while a weaker storm will shift northeast with time.. The intensity beyond 36 hours will be dictated by how much the mid level ridge builds westward. If it fails to do so, like the GFS is suggesting, our system will become strongly sheared from the east and the storm will quickly fall apart as the low level flow draws it eastward against the upper level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1215 PM EDT SUN 17 JULY 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JULY 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-047 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 A. 18/1800Z B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE C. 18/1500Z D. 28.0N 79.5W E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2300Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73 A. 19/0600Z B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE C. 19/0300Z D. 28.5N 79.5W E. 19/0500Z TO 19/1100Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. 3. REMARK: FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR 18/1800Z WILL CONVERT TO AN LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IF THE FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR 17/0600Z IS CANCELLED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Recon is up, no HDOB's yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Que? 3. REMARK: FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR 18/1800Z WILL CONVERT TO AN LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IF THE FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR 17/0600Z IS CANCELLED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I sailed through this on a cruise ship from Freeport yesterday morning. Very rough seas and all outside decks closed for several hours. Ship's anemometer peaked at 68 kts. Of course we all know about how bad cruise ship obs are, and I'm pretty sure even at the mast it wasn't quite 68 kts, but still I can attest to some very strong winds and seas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Que? It was 17/1600z when it supposedly took off. They are sending RECCO obs. http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 About to leave from port canaveral on a cruise to Freeport. Wonder if well avoid the port because of the storm. Should be an interesting trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 About to leave from port canaveral on a cruise to Freeport. Wonder if well avoid the port because of the storm. Should be an interesting trip. Lucky duck, better get on the boat quick before this thing gets classified and your trip gets canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 There is little question this system is at tropical depression status... Recon might even find stronger winds to qualify this as a tropical storm. I'm not one to bash the NHC but it's a little embarrassing that they still have the 30% up from 8am this morning... You would have thought they would have issued a Special TWO by now, considering the WINDSAT pass, satellite, and radar. Not a big deal, but they will have some poor stats from the last several TWO probabilities. That's just the fickle nature of TCG sometimes. I've posted some initial thoughts on my blog, but will update later this afternoon after recon has investigated the system. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/17/invest-98l-becoming-better-organized-likely-to-be-a-depression-or-tropical-storm-later-today/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm a little stunned. Satellite makes it pretty clear its a TD, but usually the models do a much better job of suggesting development. When even the genesis happy Canadian misses development from less than 24 hours out, well, I'm a little stunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The windsat pass from earlier, the impressive low-level organization seen on the visible imagery, and the persistence of convection near the center all suggest a TD has formed to me. The forecast track is highly uncertain, but I would have to go with little movement over the next couple days, followed by a gradual acceleration towards the NE. Most of the dynamical and global models indicate this, although they don't resolve the system very well. I don't think the ridge over the interior U.S. is going to be enough to drive this south and westward into the Gulf, especially as the eastern end of it gets eroded by the digging trough over the Canadian Maritimes. Under this track scenario, it will likely die a quick death in 2-3 days as it encounters increased shear from upper-level northeasterlies. Before that time though, I think this has a pretty good chance of intensifying into a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 To supplement CUmet's thoughts, this storm is going to have a lifetime struggle with dry air to its north. Already convection has decreased markedly as some of the dry air north of the system is being advected in. The shear won't be too strong in the short term (24-36 hours) but it will still be from the north, which is going to cause a lot of dry air intrusions. Despite the warm waters underneath this system, deep convection will likely struggle to remain consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Hmmm... NHC wants the recon to finish investigating 98L before they call it a TD it seems... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY. Dang, you just beat me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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