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Tropical Storm Bret


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Despite it's appearance, recon still found 57kt flight level winds and a 1001mb pressure.

For the ugly duckling that it is... its been maintain a surprisingly strong wind core. Recon is going in for another look this afternoon, and it appears that is still is about as organized as it was yesterday at this time.

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Bret is no more... here is my forecast verification made nearly 5 days ago now. Intensity was nearly spot on (was 12 hours too early on degeneration but otherwise 0 knot error for intensity at each time frame 24-96 hrs). Track was not a complete disaster, but was way too fast and south in the long range, likely owing to the fact that Bret held on a little longer than expected, plus the initial northward turn I didn't really account for. Overall, I give myself a D for track, and an A for forecast intensity. Let me know if you guys agree or disagree!

epq988.png

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Bret is no more... here is my forecast verification made nearly 5 days ago now. Intensity was nearly spot on (was 12 hours too early on degeneration but otherwise 0 knot error for intensity at each time frame 24-96 hrs). Track was not a complete disaster, but was way too fast and south in the long range, likely owing to the fact that Bret held on a little longer than expected, plus the initial northward turn I didn't really account for. Overall, I give myself a D for track, and an A for forecast intensity. Let me know if you guys agree or disagree!

epq988.png

Nice job Phil. I'd go A- on the Intensity. As I think you should factor in the extra time it held together in the intensity part. I also give you a C-/D+ on track. You were not too far off until the end.

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