toad strangler Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 hopefully this is the runt of this year's litter...this is ma-on's uglier stepsister Not nearly ugly as this recent ass fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Despite it's appearance, recon still found 57kt flight level winds and a 1001mb pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Despite it's appearance, recon still found 57kt flight level winds and a 1001mb pressure. For the ugly duckling that it is... its been maintain a surprisingly strong wind core. Recon is going in for another look this afternoon, and it appears that is still is about as organized as it was yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Looks like it is finally weakening, extrap is about 1005mb, and flight level winds were 42kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Looks like it is finally weakening, extrap is about 1005mb, and flight level winds were 42kts Yep, and visible is noticeably less organized with the llc beginning to elongate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 they should just keep going east and sample cindy instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Bret is no more... here is my forecast verification made nearly 5 days ago now. Intensity was nearly spot on (was 12 hours too early on degeneration but otherwise 0 knot error for intensity at each time frame 24-96 hrs). Track was not a complete disaster, but was way too fast and south in the long range, likely owing to the fact that Bret held on a little longer than expected, plus the initial northward turn I didn't really account for. Overall, I give myself a D for track, and an A for forecast intensity. Let me know if you guys agree or disagree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Bret is no more... here is my forecast verification made nearly 5 days ago now. Intensity was nearly spot on (was 12 hours too early on degeneration but otherwise 0 knot error for intensity at each time frame 24-96 hrs). Track was not a complete disaster, but was way too fast and south in the long range, likely owing to the fact that Bret held on a little longer than expected, plus the initial northward turn I didn't really account for. Overall, I give myself a D for track, and an A for forecast intensity. Let me know if you guys agree or disagree! Nice job Phil. I'd go A- on the Intensity. As I think you should factor in the extra time it held together in the intensity part. I also give you a C-/D+ on track. You were not too far off until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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