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Tropical Storm Bret


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000

ABNT20 KNHC 161739

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS

PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN

FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR

SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY

CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE

FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW

CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

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Based on eyeballing vis. sat., I'm guessing it is now ~150 miles E of St. Aug. moving SE. So, I think that the BAM's initialized OK at 18Z positionwise but not motionwise. Any other guesses? Also, it looks more sheared to me than earlier.

My educ. guess based on looking at model progs is that if this doesn't cross FL by Mon., it will turn out NE to sea (leaving Bermuda as the only threat)as steering winds E of FL would no longer have much of a westerly component starting early Tue.

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98L is a feature that casually caught my eye on the models a couple days ago, but often times, such features on the models tend to verify as a strung out mess or just get absorbed into the mid level flow and flung NE'ward.

However, it certainly appears that we have a bonifide entity that is now removed, and becoming moreso, from the mid-latitude synoptic stream, drifting southward, and as such, has a much higher chance of developing into a TC than what the models have been sniffing at.

A little early to put out any kind of map, however, I see a very plausible scenario, where we could have some mid week excitement in the GOM.....

Interest peaked!

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The better divergence moving south with the mid level circulation reached some weakly convergent low level clouds, and bam! she goes. I agree that, even though it's non tropical origins, if it can get into the GOM, it would get very interesting.

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The better divergence moving south with the mid level circulation reached some weakly convergent low level clouds, and bam! she goes. I agree that, even though it's non tropical origins, if it can get into the GOM, it would get very interesting.

It looks to be moving south now after what looked like SE movement earlier and is ~100 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral. Will it start moving more SW soon?

A possible July analog?

http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no

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It looks to be moving south now after what looked like SE movement earlier and is ~100 miles ENE of Cape Canaveral. Will it start moving more SW soon?

A possible July analog?

http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no

There are few, if any south moving storms in that part of the basin... a SWard moving one at it's TCG might be Doria '67, which occurred in Sep.

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It looks to me as if 98L, after looking messier this afternoon due to moderate NW shear/much less convection near the center, is once again looking a good bit better. The shear seems to be lessening and convection has increased over the last few hours. Also, it appears to me that its prior S movement may be slowing. We'll see if a westerly component of motion is about to commence. I think we may have a contender for a TC. Also, I maintain my opinion that this will need to reach the FL coast by no later than Monday afternoon to have a chance to hit the U.S at all because westerly steering currents will then collapse. It may be Gulf-bound afterward as the BAM's suggest if it can get to FL by Mon.

Any other opinions?

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I think that a west of south motion has finally commenced. Here is a radar loop:

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

Look carefully at that hooklike feature on the left side of the convection. It appears to be a center and it seems to be moving somewhat west of south. Anyone else see that?

If it does start moving SW or W, it will be interesting to see if the shear worsens.

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