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18z gfs


tombo82685

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Before anyone starts making comparisons to how the models behaved with the storms for the 5th and 8-9th time period, the last time the GFS had a big storm for us for either of those dates was in its 10 day fantasy range. I believe it did show a storm on occasion but not one that affected us (someone correct me if I'm wrong). The storm modeled on the 18z GFS starts taking shape at hr 174-180 and by 192 the trough is starting to go negative. Thats in the 8-9 day range so I would definitely keep a close eye on this threat also because of the fact that the EURO shows something similar.

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Actually looks a bit like February 18-20th 1972... Central PA got absolutely slammed with that one....

Anyway, I like the trends and we got plenty of time to get this going right. Bring it 60 miles East, we'll talking February '10 numbers.

So this is JB's version of Jan 1996. :arrowhead:

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Well it's something nice to see, so what if the track isn't perfect, it's 8 days out, big deal. I wonder if this is just a fluke run or will the 0z gfs follow. Also if you believe the 18z gfs, we could see 1-3 inches of snow between hours 156 to 180. The track is interesting and a little worrying, the storm would take place during the transition to a redeveloping block, the 50/50 low is a bit out of place. You'd like a storm is occur as the block is firmly in place, not while it's in the process of repositioning itself. By hour 228, the block is firmly in place, the low closes off and a good chunk of I-95 would get 3-6 inches of snow after a sloppy rain/snow/sleet mix.

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Guidance remains consistent with potential begining next weekend into the week of the 13th (12/9 - 12/16) with cold sustained cold throughout the period. The peak of the cold is likely to be between the 8th and the 12th with storm threats coinciding in this time frame. Beyond mid month longer range seems to be leaning towards a continuation of an overall colder than normal with a trough in the east. Its good to see guidance persistent with the storm threat next weekend.

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