mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 No it hasn't.The morning update from SPC is the first place it has been mentioned by anyone BOX three hours ago: CONTRAST THAT WITH A MORESUBSTANTIAL LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCEVALLEY/LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LINE HAS PAIRED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCEAND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM OTTAWA TO CLEVELAND. IF THESE STORMSHOLD TOGETHER...THEY WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE BERKSHIRES AND SRNGREENS BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 BOX three hours ago: CONTRAST THAT WITH A MORESUBSTANTIAL LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCEVALLEY/LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LINE HAS PAIRED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCEAND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM OTTAWA TO CLEVELAND. IF THESE STORMSHOLD TOGETHER...THEY WOULD EXTRAPOLATE TO THE BERKSHIRES AND SRNGREENS BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM. Like I said until ths morning nothing about this was mentioned anywhere. That wasthe morning update not the 4:00am AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 NNE has a cloud shield that stretches from NH to Lake Michigan. What I'm saying is that this rain will clear out here and in NNE more quickly than in SNE.. that rain wont reach and clear out of SNE till like 2-3 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This isn't the line they are forecasting severe for. This was unforecast by models and humans .They are keying on something happening later SPC WRF had this yesterday. FTW. That's why we were saying unsure of convective debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well for a death heat wave with temps in the 90s for seven straight days starting this past Sat, looks like 2/3 so far will not make 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well for a death heat wave with temps in the 90s for seven straight days starting this past Sat, looks like 2/3 so far will not make 90. Today will hit 90 at BDL..Relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Like I said until ths morning nothing about this was mentioned anywhere. That wasthe morning update not the 4:00am AFD The WRF and HRRR have had this since yesterday. Even a NAM to an extent...which is why it was showing crashing mid level LR come early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 IMO, the NAMM only causes the EML to fall apart because of the convection that develops between 16z and 17z...at least that's what I saw on the ORH BUFKIT sounding. The 750mb to 600mb lapse rate goes from 8.1C/km to 6.5C/km in the matter of one hour. I just looked on twisterdata and you can see this from 15z to 18z tomorrow. Look at the difference in lapse rates from 650-550mb during these times. Looks like it coincides with something coming through. I actually did a point click near you, but it defaults probably to KSFZ or something. This isn't the line they are forecasting severe for. This was unforecast by models and humans .They are keying on something happening later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well for a death heat wave with temps in the 90s for seven straight days starting this past Sat, looks like 2/3 so far will not make 90. Blizz is having a tough summer...be kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Actually the models did a pretty good job with this. A line like this one was exactly why I wasn't very gung ho yesterday. Agree-this line will likely ruin our chances later--cloud debris and decaying storms/showers will just muck it all up--perhaps the line can maintain strength coming south and east, but doubt it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 SPC WRF had this yesterday. FTW. That's why we were saying unsure of convective debris. I thought you were saying the overnight complex..not a midday one. Hopefully it 's correct with supercells this afternoon for Ct/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Today will hit 90 at BDL..Relax LOL hanging slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Like I said until ths morning nothing about this was mentioned anywhere. That wasthe morning update not the 4:00am AFD People need to take a step back and stop being weenies for a sec. This line was way nw at the time of the AFD. At that point, you don't know how this will play out. Also, the airmass behind Buffalo looks better and this will advect ese. There will be more stuff developing behind this line. The question is how it plays out later on. Since I'm looking at this area, I'd say give it a chance to see how stuff forms later on. It's possible this might be just meh, but we have some decent support in place for stuff near 00z. Obviously we want full sunshine, but we just have to sit tight. We all mentioned this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 SPC WRF had this yesterday. FTW. That's why we were saying unsure of convective debris. Yeah, exactly. This was always something that seemed quite possible. Too bad it's holding together a bit too well and it's moving in at the worst possible time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Sun's out here...hopefully we can destabilize by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Check out the 12z SPC WRF. Kind of what I'm afraid of. It brings crap through in the morning, but looks like more cells would arrive very late day. It's a model, but just saying fwiw. I mentioned this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 People need to take a step back and let me play with their weenies for a sec. I am all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I mentioned this yesterday. SREFs and the NAM are still highlighting later this afternoon for max instability after the late morning/early afternoon convection moves away. Shear is decent and so instability...but we do lose the favorable lapse rates after the activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 If the sun desn't come back out by 1-2:00 we're f'd for severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 If the sun desn't come back out by 1-2:00 we're f'd for severe Sun is out here, but still lots of clouds at different levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Sun is out here, but still lots of clouds at different levels I meant after the first round of sprinkles/showers comes thru late morning/noon time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Out in sunny Ashtabula, Ohio for a quick 18 of disc golf. Woke up early to beat the rain. The southern part of that line was pretty weak. We got out ahead of it for the most part heading through Buffalo. Brkn cloud cover with occasional showers. good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 SREFs and the NAM are still highlighting later this afternoon for max instability after the late morning/early afternoon convection moves away. Shear is decent and so instability...but we do lose the favorable lapse rates after the activity. Yeah it's possible. Recall on June 1st after he first line of cells went through, we had that awesome light show develop in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Did somebody mention yesterday that a morning line of showers could be good to prevent mixing and keep higher dews in the area? NWS has a high of 90 for me today.. hard.to believe that will happen with these showers. 73/68 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Another issue I noticed is that all the high dewpoint air is found over Western PA and NY (21C at 925mb), behind the MCS activity. Favorable lapse-rates and low-level moisture/instability are not collocated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Not a fun day for northeast TAFs..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This looks to be the main show down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This area of precipitation is just lagging.. I guess time to start watching the NNY radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Poor Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Poor Wiz. This blows for all of us . i was looking forward to something fun to track today. Oh well..maybe we'll have some evening storms or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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