HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Does Wiz have a baseball game today? If sO, several EF2-3s Cloudy with sprinkles here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The first line will be the main (and probably only) show for many in SNE, particularly north of the Pike. No so sure about that. There will be more stuff developing behind that line later on. Just not totally sure how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 That won't miss. It may weaken, but should come through BOS-BDL around noon or so..maybe a bit later. Scott, your thinking that this line hits, and then more discrete cells form Behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Scott, your thinking that this line hits, and then more discrete cells form Behind it? Well "hit" is subjective. It's possible the line weakens as it moves east, but the airmass is also heating up too. I'd say wait until it gets into VT and then evaluate. Afterwards, more cells will develop over NY state, but I don't think you can say that they will be totally discrete, at this early juncture. Might be very early on and then form into a line, but lets just see how they form...nevermind the type of cells and organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Whatever happens, we have one of our best shots at SVR for the season, its just a matter of how it plays out I guess.. can't ask for more than that. Sun coming out now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Does Wiz have a baseball game today? If sO, several EF2-3s Cloudy with sprinkles here Think he said he had work till 4 or 5pm I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Albany has an EML...albeit in a relatively shallow layer near 600mb. 700 to 521mb are somewhere around 7.2C/km and and closer to 9C/km in the 100mb layer centered near 600mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 the mid-level lapse rates behind the MCS over NY are putrid from the latent heat release overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Lining up along and south of the pike, along and ahead MCS in NYS. ...NERN U.S... THE ESEWD PROGRESSION OF MULTIPLE MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL COLLECTIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM EXPANSIVE CNTRL U.S. ANTICYCLONE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS SEWD TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS BY 19/12Z. PERSISTENT WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE THE FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OH VALLEY. LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVER UPSTATE NY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD THIS MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS COMPLEX WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...OR UNDERGO DIURNAL DECAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE W WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD FRONT ITSELF. EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM ONTARIO...ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 the mid-level lapse rates behind the MCS over NY are putrid from the latent heat release overnight. I was just looking at that. I wonder if we can get some recovery from upstream stuff, but yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I was just looking at that. I wonder if we can get some recovery from upstream stuff, but yuck. we probably want it to fall apart or intensify...hopefully it's not somewhere in between where it just ruins everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 That line had better dry up before it gets here or we are f'd for anything later this afternoon. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Not so sure why SPC is so excited about the severe threat. The radar looks horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Not so sure why BOX and SPC are so excited about the severe threat. The radar looks horrific. Our only hope is that weakens/dries up and we fire stuff later this afternoon/evening..I don't think anyone forecast or saw this MCS heading into SNE at noontime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Not so sure why BOX and SPC are so excited about the severe threat. The radar looks horrific. It almost looks like NNE had a better shot than CNE AND SNE right now.. they look to clear much faster after this initial batch and not be so inundated with clouds/ after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Not so sure why BOX and SPC are so excited about the severe threat. The radar looks horrific. Just not sure I understand the thinking. Both SPC and BOX are assuming storms develop out ahead of this line, but at 45mph or so this is moving through SNE in 2-4 hours, not 3-7PM as has been discussed. And it's showing no signs of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Our only hope is that weakens/dries up and we fire stuff later this afternoon/evening..I don't think anyone forecast or saw this MCS heading into SNE at noontime I hope it fizzles early and sets us up for a better chance later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just not sure I understand the thinking. Both SPC and BOX are assuming storms develop out ahead of this line, but at 45mph or so this is moving through SNE in 2-4 hours, not 3-7PM as has been discussed. And it's showing no signs of weakening. This isn't the line they are forecasting severe for. This was unforecast by models and humans .They are keying on something happening later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Great hopefully it moves through quick and thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It almost looks like NNE had a better shot than CNE AND SNE right now.. they look to clear much faster after this initial batch and not be so inundated with clouds/ after that NNE has a cloud shield that stretches from NH to Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 tds in mid to upper 60s with a couple of 70-71 thrown in there for Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This isn't the line they are forecasting severe for. This was unforecast by models and humans .They are keying on something happening later Erm, it's been forecasted all morning: LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVER UPSTATE NY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD THIS MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS COMPLEX WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...OR UNDERGO DIURNAL DECAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE W WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD FRONT ITSELF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Great hopefully it moves through quick and thats it. On the pond today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Just not sure I understand the thinking. Both SPC and BOX are assuming storms develop out ahead of this line, but at 45mph or so this is moving through SNE in 2-4 hours, not 3-7PM as has been discussed. And it's showing no signs of weakening. I think it is weakening but not fast enough. Cloud tops are warming quickly and the radar is looking less impressive. That said a tremendous amount of convective debris along with crummy mid level lapse rates behind it will advect in this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Erm, it's been forecasted all morning: LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVER UPSTATE NY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD THIS MORNING...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHETHER THIS COMPLEX WILL INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...OR UNDERGO DIURNAL DECAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE W WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ANY STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD FRONT ITSELF. No it hasn't.The morning update from SPC is the first place it has been mentioned by anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 On the pond today? What pond? no games tonight , we already have three makeups, get the rain out by 3 dry up, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This isn't the line they are forecasting severe for. This was unforecast by models and humans .They are keying on something happening later yesterday 18z NAMM had convection between 16 and 17z at ORH...with the mid-level lapse rates getting crappy around that time...I'm pretty sure it's the same MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This isn't the line they are forecasting severe for. This was unforecast by models and humans .They are keying on something happening later Actually the models did a pretty good job with this. A line like this one was exactly why I wasn't very gung ho yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Actually the models did a pretty good job with this. A line like this one was exactly why I wasn't very gung ho yesterday. Well you didn't forecast it last nite on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 What pond? no games tonight , we already have three makeups, get the rain out by 3 dry up, game on. Ahh.... I remember you said something yesterday about wanting this to not happen. Figured you were fishing/swimming or something. Forgot about your team. I hope to see some hail, and could use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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