mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Impressive late night convection moving into MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 ugly radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Predawn light show in the works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Predawn light show in the works. To annihilate any shot of max heating later.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 To annihilate any shot of max heating later.. I gotta work in the afternoon, so I'm down with an early show. This stuff should be out of here in time for diurnal heating anyway. Dynamics will probably help compensate for any lack of destabilization as well. We aren't gonna need full sun all day for severe wx to occur tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Plenty of New England severe wx events start out with convection in the morning. Especially ones with strong upper level support like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 I gotta work in the afternoon, so I'm down with an early show. This stuff should be out of here in time for diurnal heating anyway. Dynamics will probably help compensate for any lack of destabilization as well. We aren't gonna need full sun all day for severe wx to occur tomorrow. I was just speaking cynically. I agree with you, posted the very same thing yesterday that you just did. However, full sun is always appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well we'll have to see what these dam clouds do I guess. Hopefully they break up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 shocked to wake up and see the radar this morning...looks like my commute to worcester is going to get rocked...will be nice to get some rain, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow...ML lapse rates just increased big time again...now back up to 6-6.5 C/KM with nice area of 7-7.5 C/KM back over the Great Lakes. We'll see what happens, NAM weakens them significantly as the day goes on. SPC outlook pretty beefy too, large swath of 5% TOR and 30% damaging winds...gotta wonder if any of this will be further fine tuned at 9:00 when the situation is a big more clear. Doesn't look like clouds will be too much of an issue, at least down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow...ML lapse rates just increased big time again...now back up to 6-6.5 C/KM with nice area of 7-7.5 C/KM back over the Great Lakes. We'll see what happens, NAM weakens them significantly as the day goes on. SPC outlook pretty beefy too, large swath of 5% TOR and 30% damaging winds...gotta wonder if any of this will be further fine tuned at 9:00 when the situation is a big more clear. Doesn't look like clouds will be too much of an issue, at least down this way. I was looking at that yesterday. CT will probably have the least in the way of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow...ML lapse rates just increased big time again...now back up to 6-6.5 C/KM with nice area of 7-7.5 C/KM back over the Great Lakes. We'll see what happens, NAM weakens them significantly as the day goes on. SPC outlook pretty beefy too, large swath of 5% TOR and 30% damaging winds...gotta wonder if any of this will be further fine tuned at 9:00 when the situation is a big more clear. Doesn't look like clouds will be too much of an issue, at least down this way. um, have you seen the radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I was looking at that yesterday. CT will probably have the least in the way of clouds. Yeah I really wasn't worried about clouds being an issue down this way...this MCS is moving along the path I kind of thought it would...kind of shocked me. In fact the bulk of the thickest clouds cover should just get into northeast MA and that's it. While we will have some cloud cover around the sun should really work to burn these clouds off and fairly easily. This afternoon is going to be be highly interesting, especially when it comes to storm mode...if we are able to remain more discrete for a longer period of time there certainly could be the potential for an isolated tornado or two as latest guidance is suggesting that the flow may back a bit...or actually veer...veering would be bad though b/c it could help to mix out some of the low-level moisture in place but the amount of low-level moisture in place is pretty impressive so veering winds may not actually hurt all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 um, have you seen the radar? Yeah I saw...nothing too bad...sun is out in many locations by mid-morning and with such a warm/moist low-level airmass in place we'll destabilize very quickly and temperatures will soar quickly. This MCS will provide some nice boundaries for storms to interact with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah I really wasn't worried about clouds being an issue down this way...this MCS is moving along the path I kind of thought it would...kind of shocked me. In fact the bulk of the thickest clouds cover should just get into northeast MA and that's it. While we will have some cloud cover around the sun should really work to burn these clouds off and fairly easily. This afternoon is going to be be highly interesting, especially when it comes to storm mode...if we are able to remain more discrete for a longer period of time there certainly could be the potential for an isolated tornado or two as latest guidance is suggesting that the flow may back a bit...or actually veer...veering would be bad though b/c it could help to mix out some of the low-level moisture in place but the amount of low-level moisture in place is pretty impressive so veering winds may not actually hurt all that much. I wouldn't be shocked if this is more of a CT/RI thing. We'll see how the clouds go today, but just sayin'. Hopefully this crud can be outta here by 10am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if this is more of a CT/RI thing. We'll see how the clouds go today, but just sayin'. Hopefully this crud can be outta here by 10am or so. What's actually very perfect for CT/RI is the timing...looks like between 3-8 PM for these areas and that's prime time. Some of our most intense storms here come in the 3-6 PM timeframe here in CT. Going to be a very interesting afternoon too...especially if we destabilize more than anyone else...could have some nice instability axis setup which is something that could really drive storms too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if this is more of a CT/RI thing. We'll see how the clouds go today, but just sayin'. Hopefully this crud can be outta here by 10am or so. alarm went off at 5am, the first thing i did was look out my window to the west and to see if there were clouds...at that time the edge of the MCS was visible on the horizon...and the storms haven't even entered MA yet...winds are a little gusty here, have been all morning...that MCS is holding together better than I expected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well off to work...back around 4:45-5:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Nice to have clear skies this morning. I did notice as I went out running around 4:45 that it was noticeably dark. Today was the first day I've noticed it staying darker later.. Looks like we rip this afternoon..with major major damage..I'm expecting some homes to completely lose their roofs. Typical cat 1 type damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Any guesses as to the strongest tornado today of the 4-7 plus that will occur? EF2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Are we looking at those storms in Upstate NY as the ones to hit us? if so,, that would sem to make it here much earlier than 3-7 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Are we looking at those storms in Upstate NY as the ones to hit us? if so,, that would sem to make it here much earlier than 3-7 pm I think that line may come through, then perhaps something very late day and early evening. Today seems highly uncertain, in terms of what's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I think that line may come through, then perhaps something very late day and early evening. Today seems highly uncertain, in terms of what's happening. If that first line can hold off till like 1:00 we'd be good..but that may screw up late day stuff. I don't like seeing that there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 BOX is hitting the severe hard today. DISCO ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZEDFLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE QUICKLY.00Z NAM/GFS SIMILAR IN SHOWING MODERATE CAPE/MODERATE SHEARENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ML CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THEORDER OF 6-7C/KM REMAIN OVER REGION AS WELL...ALTHOUGH MODELS MAYBE WEAKENING THESE TOO QUICKLY AS A RESULT OF GENERATINGPRECIPITATION.SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS/BOWS WITH WIND DAMAGEMAIN THREAT...BUT PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FORSUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS LATE INDAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF EML THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A WIDESPREADAND SIGNIFICANT EVENT...BUT NOTE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BEAS VOLATILE AS IT WAS DURING JUNE 1 EVENT.IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO POSSIBILITY OF URBAN FLASH FLOODINGDUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS INLOWER 70S. DECIDED AGAINST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN LOCALIZEDNATURE OF HEAVIER RAIN AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IT DEVELOPS...BUT DAY SHIFT MAY CONSIDER DOING SO.SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNINGMAY BRING HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING TO SOUTHWEST NEWHAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ANDEVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. SOME OF THESTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY RESULT IN RAPIDFLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND WILL RESULT INPOOR VISIBILITY ON ROADWAYS.SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY FROM...2 TO 5 PM IN KEENE AND MANCHESTER...3 TO 7 PM FROM HARTFORD AND SPRINGFIELD TO WORCESTER AND BOSTON...4 TO 8 PM IN PROVIDENCE...5 TO 9 PM IN HYANNIS.THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY...INCLUDING THE BEACH OR CAMPING...SHOULD HEAD INSIDE OR IN A VEHICLE AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENINGWEATHER. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BESTRUCK BY LIGHTNING.STAY UPDATED ON THE WEATHER. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TV ORRADIO STATIONS...OR GO ONLINE TO WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON. POINT AND CLICK: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. West wind between 10 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 If that first line can hold off till like 1:00 we'd be good..but that may screw up late day stuff. I don't like seeing that there They'll be a couple of lines I think. The one in the evening if it does form will have some good support with it. At least the southern edge of the clouds are getting eaten away. I have some sun even up here in Andover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wiz am I screwed here? Stupid morning rains, clearing to the NW though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 HRRR takes the line and moves it through SNE, reaching PVD by 18z, and then looks to develop discrete storms/supercells in the Hudson Valley around 21z moving into CT/RI. Having that line move through 11-1PM seems like a terrible convection killer (and could very well be what the models have been showing as killing mid-level LR too early). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm thinking that this first line almost misses ENE completely which could be good for later In the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm thinking that this first line almost misses ENE completely which could be good for later In the day That won't miss. It may weaken, but should come through BOS-BDL around noon or so..maybe a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'm thinking that this first line almost misses ENE completely which could be good for later In the day The first line will be the main (and probably only) show for many in SNE, particularly north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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