Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 WOW...18z NAM is NUTS for Wednesday...won't need much lift. Caught me off guard too - I had to go back and forth and make sure I was looking at the right time interval - couldn't believe my eyes. That's pretty damn awesome for this part of the country. Could be a red herring; we've seen the NAM pull this crap before only to drop the signal by tomorrow. There is a kind of diffused warm front in the area; there may be some theta-e pool because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Mm, interesting... DPs have jolted into the mid 60s through the area and the sounding is in positive geopotential flow with NW riding over WSW so MCS numbers are not exactly 0. Would like to see some organization...perpetuation as the line is now on board in N NY. These things are not forecast that well when the params are iffy - Wasn't it on 6/1 where all of the models failed to forecast the MCS in the morning hours that formed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Tip what do you think for tomorrow at this point? Not blown away by it overall, but - no pun intended - wind could be interesting. Unidirectional shear amid 1100 to 1400 (depending on point sounding) of SBCAPE, with CINH that shoots from 80 to 8 would likely produce a wedge outflow scenario - perhaps similar to that afternoon linear event a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wasn't it on 6/1 where all of the models failed to forecast the MCS in the morning hours that formed? Oh, I don't know of anything that specific. DP could also just be fluctuating diurnally here with vegetation at max green on the tale end of hot day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Caught me off guard too - I had to go back and forth and make sure I was looking at the right time interval - couldn't believe my eyes. That's pretty damn awesome for this part of the country. Could be a red herring; we've seen the NAM pull this crap before only to drop the signal by tomorrow. There is a kind of diffused warm front in the area; there may be some theta-e pool because of that. It certainly is interesting...has another EML over the region. Shear/helicity/instability is pretty ripe. In fact, Wednesday through the weekend looks ripe...you really won't need much of a trigger at all to set things off. Given the ridge positioning there should be series of s/w energy moving through in the flow aloft. This pattern is really setting up for some nighttime MCS activity as well...ring of fire baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Not blown away by it overall, but - no pun intended - wind could be interesting. Unidirectional shear amid 1100 to 1400 (depending on point sounding) of SBCAPE, with CINH that shoots from 80 to 8 would likely produce a wedge outflow scenario - perhaps similar to that afternoon linear event a couple weeks ago. That afternoon event was a good one. Best Severe I've seen this year so far. I'd take that and those green clouds in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I guarantee MPM and SkiMRG get a SVR tomorrow oh and Bennington, VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 well that MCS that cruised through Canada and into NY state is dying out...probaly leftover crap clouds around in the morning...but that's about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 well that MCS that cruised through Canada and into NY state is dying out...probaly leftover crap clouds around in the morning...but that's about it It could also add to the low-level moisture if it holds long enough and produces some rain and it will provide a nice outflow boundary for tomorrow afternoon as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Good wind on the velocity scans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Can we get the airmass that was at KAPX at 00z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Can we get the airmass that was at KAPX at 00z?? 21z SPC SREF basically gives us <10% chance of ML lapse rates of 7 C/KM or steeper...looking at mesoanalysis now it has a huge plum of 7-7.5 C/KM lapse rates off to our west which are working in...if the EML were to weaken what would cause it to do so? Convection that fires during the night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 00z NAM looks yuck yuck for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 21z SPC SREF basically gives us <10% chance of ML lapse rates of 7 C/KM or steeper...looking at mesoanalysis now it has a huge plum of 7-7.5 C/KM lapse rates off to our west which are working in...if the EML were to weaken what would cause it to do so? Convection that fires during the night? Well that's not everything. Just being away from its source region and some of that tropical airmass getting entrained into it can probably modify it too. So what of we don't have 7.5C/KM. I think 6.5C to 7C is plenty good for SNE. I believe Mike mentioned something like that, earlier. There are other issues possibly, but we'll just see how it looks in the morning. Good to have NW flow, but it's not everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 yeah... not sure we'll be able to realize lapse rates that good in the second half of the day. The GFS and NAM have them really going to hell after the morning. IMO, the NAMM only causes the EML to fall apart because of the convection that develops between 16z and 17z...at least that's what I saw on the ORH BUFKIT sounding. The 750mb to 600mb lapse rate goes from 8.1C/km to 6.5C/km in the matter of one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 IMO, the NAMM only causes the EML to fall apart because of the convection that develops between 16z and 17z...at least that's what I saw on the ORH BUFKIT sounding. The 750mb to 600mb lapse rate goes from 8.1C/km to 6.5C/km in the matter of one hour. I just looked on twisterdata and you can see this from 15z to 18z tomorrow. Look at the difference in lapse rates from 650-550mb during these times. Looks like it coincides with something coming through. I actually did a point click near you, but it defaults probably to KSFZ or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I think we all learned that you can't always predict sever outbreaks around here. Not that I'm hoping for a repeat, but I'll be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I think we all learned that you can't always predict sever outbreaks around here. Not that I'm hoping for a repeat, but I'll be watching. june 1st looked excellent a week out...this is not really the same animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 According to the NAM we could have showers/storms on tuesday and wednesday as well... I'd love the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 june 1st looked excellent a week out...this is not really the same animal. I know it's not the same - I'm just not ready to tell Wiz to give it up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 HRRR takes the line in the UP of Michigan and continues it overnight, expands it a bit, and pushes it through WNY and into NE around 12-15z tomorrow steadily weakening it over time. That would be the severe killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 HRRR takes the line in the UP of Michigan and continues it overnight, expands it a bit, and pushes it through WNY and into NE around 12-15z tomorrow steadily weakening it over time. That would be the severe killer. Our in-house WRF keeps SNE dry and relatively sunny through about 18z and then strengthens storms moving in from the NW. So who knows When the dog jumps on my bed at 7 tomorrow morning and I look out the window I'll feel more confident in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Our in-house WRF keeps SNE dry and relatively sunny through about 18z and then strengthens storms moving in from the NW. So who knows When the dog jumps on my bed at 7 tomorrow morning and I look out the window I'll feel more confident in the forecast. I'll be waking up before the sun comes up. Gotta wake up at 4:30 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Our in-house WRF keeps SNE dry and relatively sunny through about 18z and then strengthens storms moving in from the NW. So who knows When the dog jumps on my bed at 7 tomorrow morning and I look out the window I'll feel more confident in the forecast. What kind of dog is Doppler? I was fawning over him earlier lol ....love the color of his coat. Some sort of setter? Otherwise, stellar night outside...cooling breeze, still low DPs, perfectly clear skies and a nearly full moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'll be waking up before the sun comes up. Gotta wake up at 4:30 AM EDT. Why so early? I want sunny skies tomorrow!! Either way its gonna be Grotesque out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Those are some strong storms in the UP of MICHIGAN. Hopefully something like that will be around here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 What kind of dog is Doppler? I was fawning over him earlier lol ....love the color of his coat. Some sort of setter? Otherwise, stellar night outside...cooling breeze, still low DPs, perfectly clear skies and a nearly full moon. He is a golden but probably mixed with a little something else. Great dog... We adopted him like 18 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Why so early? I want sunny skies tomorrow!! Either way its gonna be Grotesque out Gotta go into work at 6:00 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well the 21z SPC SREF had these probs for ML lapse rates 7 C/KM or steeper across the region: This is what is out there now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 ML lapse rates now nearing 8 C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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