HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Maybe OrganizingLow gets his Sox game cancelled due to losing power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Chances are it won't...this setup is halfway decent except for one thing...boundary layer dewpoints. Usually strong and long lived nocturnal mcs events in the northeast are accompanied by 70+ sfc dews. They aren't close tonight. CAPE robber despite good mid level lapse rates. It's a shame. low-mid 60s won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like the line is weakening now actually, but that might be because some more discrete cells are forming ahead of it... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=TYX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Watch out for parts of NY/VT/NH until 1:00 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It's a shame. low-mid 60s won't cut it. Yeah, for something big here you want a thermodynamic environment similar to the one in Nrn WI right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Good look at the two MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah, for something big here you want a thermodynamic environment similar to the one in Nrn WI right now. What are dews looking like for tomorrow around NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah, for something big here you want a thermodynamic environment similar to the one in Nrn WI right now. As long as we don't get BL winds more westerly tomorrow we should have dewpoints somewhat similar...low 70's here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah, for something big here you want a thermodynamic environment similar to the one in Nrn WI right now. Tomorrow's threat is awfully convoluted. Models are all over the place but in general all seem to show enough taint of the remnant EML plume to hurt our chances from something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 As long as we don't get BL winds more westerly tomorrow we should have dewpoints somewhat similar...low 70's here tomorrow. Too bad instead of 5500 j/kg of MUCape we'll have something on the order of 1500 or 2000 j/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Tomorrow's threat is awfully convoluted. Models are all over the place but in general all seem to show enough taint of the remnant EML plume to hurt our chances from something significant. As long as you get dews 70F and lapse rates at a minimum of 6.8 C/km you have a shot at something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Too bad instead of 5500 j/kg of MUCape we'll have something on the order of 1500 or 2000 j/kg. Yeah I know, I would love to get some of those numbers that are over the northern Plains right now. Were just going to have to watch this EML closely...if it doesn't end up being tainted and we have ML lapse rates around 7 C/KM or steeper then we can probably add another solid 1200-1500 J/KG of Cape to those numbers...and we'll have to watch those dews...hopefully we can manage to get 71-74F dews in here and not mix them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Too bad instead of 5500 j/kg of MUCape we'll have something on the order of 1500 or 2000 j/kg. Too much debris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Tomorrow's threat is awfully convoluted. Models are all over the place but in general all seem to show enough taint of the remnant EML plume to hurt our chances from something significant. HRRR seems to portray it well imo. Current Ontario complex moves into Maine as another system develops early tomorrow AM (in NW Ontario currently) and pushes south after 12z. And then depending on morning cloud cover get something to potentially develop out ahead of it. But at least DPs look decent tomorrow around 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah I know, I would love to get some of those numbers that are over the northern Plains right now. Were just going to have to watch this EML closely...if it doesn't end up being tainted and we have ML lapse rates around 7 C/KM or steeper then we can probably add another solid 1200-1500 J/KG of Cape to those numbers...and we'll have to watch those dews...hopefully we can manage to get 71-74F dews in here and not mix them out. We keep talking about "as long as the EML isn't tainted" How do you monitor the EML? Just by observations? Why is the elevated mixed layer important? Actually I'll just read MEKSTERs document again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 As long as you get dews 70F and lapse rates at a minimum of 6.8 C/km you have a shot at something decent. yeah... not sure we'll be able to realize lapse rates that good in the second half of the day. The GFS and NAM have them really going to hell after the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 We keep talking about "as long as the EML isn't tainted" How do you monitor the EML? Just by observations? Why is the elevated mixed layer important? Actually I'll just read MEKSTERs document again... You can look at the ML lapse rates on the SPC mesoanalysis page. TO sum it up...it's important b/c it caps off the atmosphere until sufficient lift is present and this inhibits from clouds from forming too early so it allows further time for the atmosphere to destabilize, and it helps to maximize instability even further...more too it but you can get much more detailed information from Eksters paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 You can look at the ML lapse rates on the SPC mesoanalysis page. TO sum it up...it's important b/c it caps off the atmosphere until sufficient lift is present and this inhibits from clouds from forming too early so it allows further time for the atmosphere to destabilize, and it helps to maximize instability even further...more too it but you can get much more detailed information from Eksters paper. But a big reason it's important is because once the updrafts break that cap, the steep lapse rates allows for strong, violent updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 But a big reason it's important is because once the updrafts break that cap, the steep lapse rates allows for strong, violent updrafts. Yeah I was going to add that in but forgot. That is extremely important. This is why on those days where you do have the EML in place and are capped you really have to pay attention to things extremely closely b/c once the cap breaks and those updrafts are allowed to rise you can go from nothing to extreme hell in a matter of minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah I was going to add that in but forgot. That is extremely important. This is why on those days where you do have the EML in place and are capped you really have to pay attention to things extremely closely b/c once the cap breaks and those updrafts are allowed to rise you can go from nothing to extreme hell in a matter of minutes. All I know is one thing. If I wake up and its sunny then its game on. Cloudy, and well, I'll just be pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 All I know is one thing. If I wake up and its sunny then its game on. Cloudy, and well, I'll just be pissed. Well if we do have clouds around in the morning it's not going to entirely kill things. Even if we do have some clouds around I don't think they will be that big of a deal b/c they should burn off rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 825 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 05Z FOR ALL BUT RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO NOW ENTERING ST LWR VLY. ATMOSPHERE OVER BTV CWA NOT AS UNSTABLE AS THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THESE STORMS DEVELOPED. IN FACT...RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE STORMS WILL ADVANCE BEFORE WEAKENING. THUS...THE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRIMARY THREAT IS STRONG WINDS. OTTAWA EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 60 MPH. FURTHER NORTH A LITTLE EARLIER...PETAWAWA SAW A GUST TO 75 MPH. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE IN OUR CWA...BUT 60 MPH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LWR VLY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 So what exactly is going to taint the EML? All that's out there is that MCS moving through NNE and there probably won't be much development overnight...pretty strongly capped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 If the MCS holds I wonder if it may turn and start traveling more in a southerly direction. Instability axis located across eastern NY into western MA. Going SE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 825 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 05Z FOR ALL BUT RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO NOW ENTERING ST LWR VLY. ATMOSPHERE OVER BTV CWA NOT AS UNSTABLE AS THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THESE STORMS DEVELOPED. IN FACT...RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE STORMS WILL ADVANCE BEFORE WEAKENING. THUS...THE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRIMARY THREAT IS STRONG WINDS. OTTAWA EXPERIENCED A GUST TO 60 MPH. FURTHER NORTH A LITTLE EARLIER...PETAWAWA SAW A GUST TO 75 MPH. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE IN OUR CWA...BUT 60 MPH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LWR VLY THIS EVENING. Came off the els on Rt 2 at sunset and I could see the anvils along the NW horizon ....way the hell and gone out there. Has anyone seen the BUFKIT for Wednesday off the 18z NAM? 2500 CAPE and CINH is low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 SPC mesoanalysis has MUCAPE 2000+ j/kg over a large portion of E NY and NE but the 00z ALB sounding has nothing of the sort with less than 500 j/kg of MUCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Came off the els on Rt 2 at sunset and I could see the anvils along the NW horizon ....way the hell and gone out there. Has anyone seen the BUFKIT for Wednesday off the 18z NAM? 2500 CAPE and CINH is low! Is there any lift on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Came off the els on Rt 2 at sunset and I could see the anvils along the NW horizon ....way the hell and gone out there. Has anyone seen the BUFKIT for Wednesday off the 18z NAM? 2500 CAPE and CINH is low! Tip what do you think for tomorrow at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 WOW...18z NAM is NUTS for Wednesday...won't need much lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 SPC mesoanalysis has MUCAPE 2000+ j/kg over a large portion of E NY and NE but the 00z ALB sounding has nothing of the sort with less than 500 j/kg of MUCAPE. Mm, interesting... DPs have jolted into the mid 60s through the area and the sounding is in positive geopotential flow with NW riding over WSW so MCS numbers are not exactly 0. Would like to see some organization...perpetuation as the line is now on board in N NY. These things are not forecast that well when the params are iffy - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.