CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I think SNE is gonna benefit for its latitude, because I think there might be some crappy mid level clouds over NNE. Looks like some stuff goes through NNE late night tonight which would probably mean there will be left over convective stuff up that way. This may also waft down into SNE, but at least we should have some solar heating. Also even if clouds muck up the heating a bit, we have continuous height falls, so it shouldn't be too capped. Shear looks pretty good as well across CT and up into western mass. Yeah looks good. Rare to see instability, shear, jet dynamics come together in SNE. Should have a better idea by the 12z/18z models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Hvy hvy upper air ventilation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Hvy hvy upper air ventilation You have a fetish for LFQ of jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 You have a fetish for LFQ of jets. Lol. I need the jet support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Lol. I need the jet support. NW flow is pretty nice for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wiz needs to weigh in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 NW flow is pretty nice for the Cape. Yeah best way to get anything in here outside of elevated stuff in waa s flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wiz needs to weigh in I'll post more after looking at the 12z runs but I really like what I see potentially right now...as always there are some things that could really screw us over, however, none of that looks rather likely, at least down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It's because LFQ is fun to type, Scott - lol. Tomorrow has a classic relief day look about it! We could sky rocket temps out of the gates with such a high launching pad, and right amid a lead theta-e ridge... CAPEs should be good, no doubt. On-going cells in western/upstate NY by noon will organize into segmented hail and wind producers as they rake through the remainder of the afternoon, with photo op shelf clouds and 20F temperature reducing outflow blasts. Nice. It's 91/70, sky gets dark with flickers and distance moans, suddenly the trees lay over and it's like jumping in a swimming pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'll post more after looking at the 12z runs but I really like what I see potentially right now...as always there are some things that could really screw us over, however, none of that looks rather likely, at least down this way. Well... being in SNE for one. After June 1, we've used up our severe quota for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It's because LFQ is fun to type, Scott - lol. Tomorrow has a classic relief day look about it! We could sky rocket temps out of the gates with such a high launching pad, and right amid a lead theta-e ridge... CAPEs should be good, no doubt. On-going cells in western/upstate NY by noon will organize into segmented hail and wind producers as they rake through the remainder of the afternoon, with photo op shelf clouds and 20F temperature reducing outflow blasts. Nice. It's 91/70, sky gets dark with flickers and distance moans, suddenly the trees lay over and it's like jumping in a swimming pool. No it's because without it...it goes to crap. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The most interesting about tomorrow is wehether or not that EML can survive and make it's journey into the area...if it does then were getting some serious storms tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 No it's because without it...it goes to crap. Lol It will be interesting to see the 00z RAOBS to the nw of us in Quebec, tonight. We definitely want that EML over MN right now, to advect east with limited convective taint. I think things look good on paper for now. I mean even 6.5C to 7C mid level lapse rates is great for SNE. The concern I have is for how much mid level crud tries to move into SNE tomorrow morning. It's a little concerning. Even so, you'll have some venting from a favorable jet position and height falls during the day to help try and offset any lack of insulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Since this week is dead at camp, only a total of 37 kids signed up which is the lowest number ever and staff had to be cut back I'm trying to only work 1/2 a day tomorrow and get out around 1:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Tomorrow starts Phase II of the ALB Eradication Program...no idea what I will be doing...but I sure hope we get those storms...this week is going to be hell for those of us who work full time outdoors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Moderate risk going to be issued across parts of the northern Plains,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Was in south Florida for the week and not as much as a stray clap of thunder.. Hopefully tomorrow delivers around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The GFS is pretty unstable tomorrow, but it also suddenly spikes dews which seems suspect. Even so, looks decent at first glance, but I still have the "what can go wrong" playing in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Damn...can't get out of work early tomorrow...person I asked if he could split the day with me said he can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The GFS is pretty unstable tomorrow, but it also suddenly spikes dews which seems suspect. Even so, looks decent at first glance, but I still have the "what can go wrong" playing in my head. One thing to watch for is winds in the lowest 900mb...GFS has them more out of the west...if this occurs this would limit the amount of sfc convergence and also could drop dews a bit as the day goes on as drier air aloft mixes down. If these winds stay more out of the SW though helicity is going to be increased by a decent amount and we could be looking at the threat for supercells and perhaps a few spinups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 One thing to watch for is winds in the lowest 900mb...GFS has them more out of the west...if this occurs this would limit the amount of sfc convergence and also could drop dews a bit as the day goes on as drier air aloft mixes down. If these winds stay more out of the SW though helicity is going to be increased by a decent amount and we could be looking at the threat for supercells and perhaps a few spinups. The GFS might have more westerly winds, thanks to its resolution. Still, I could see more wsw type winds which isn't bad. One of the problems with westerly winds is that it dries us out and allows for more mixing of drier air from aloft. I think this time around td's are higher aloft so we don't have to worry too much about mixing drier air from aloft, but you don't want like a 280 type wind either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The GFS might have more westerly winds, thanks to its resolution. Still, I could see more wsw type winds which isn't bad. One of the problems with westerly winds is that it dries us out and allows for more mixing of drier air from aloft. I think this time around td's are higher aloft so we don't have to worry too much about mixing drier air from aloft, but you don't want like a 280 type wind either. The GFS still has decent looking hodos, at least early on in the day. The NAM wasn't too bad either. Still thinking that the storm mode very early on will be mainly supercells but then they will begin to converge and form a line which will quickly begin to bow out. We may see multiple lines tomorrow in fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 The GFS is pretty unstable tomorrow, but it also suddenly spikes dews which seems suspect. Even so, looks decent at first glance, but I still have the "what can go wrong" playing in my head. Dewpoint pooling ahead of the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Dewpoint pooling ahead of the front? This is Fargo's ob right now. Wow. 90/81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Dewpoint pooling ahead of the front? Yeah some of that moisture will be in here, but not dews of 80..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah some of that moisture will be in here, but not dews of 80..lol. Good deal of theta-e advection tomorrow ahead of the front with some pretty high PWATS so perhaps if the sfc wind direction is right we could see dews get well into the lower to perhaps mid 70's for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Good deal of theta-e advection tomorrow ahead of the front with some pretty high PWATS so perhaps if the sfc wind direction is right we could see dews get well into the lower to perhaps mid 70's for a time. Check out the 12z SPC WRF. Kind of what I'm afraid of. It brings crap through in the morning, but looks like more cells would arrive very late day. It's a model, but just saying fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Check out the 12z SPC WRF. Kind of what I'm afraid of. It brings crap through in the morning, but looks like more cells would arrive very late day. It's a model, but just saying fwiw. Actually rooting for a quiet day for selfish reasons, come on MCS debris and west winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Check out the 12z SPC WRF. Kind of what I'm afraid of. It brings crap through in the morning, but looks like more cells would arrive very late day. It's a model, but just saying fwiw. The 12z NAM kind of hints at this as well b/c there is a really sudden drop off in instability during the early afternoon. In setups like this you always have to keep in mind the potential for morning crap, especially with any sort of MCS that tries rolling through. A couple things we may have working for us is we may be capped early in the day and it appears as if tonight/early AM the strongest MUcape values will be across northern New England so perhaps any activity goes to our north. The positioning of the ridge is a little worrisome though b/c I could see something take aim at us in SNE but I could see it just sliding to our south. Any morning action though will also leave some nice outflow boundaries for storms to work with later in the day...hopefully though any morning action is something that is weakening as it's nearing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Back to 15%. Was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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