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Monday showers/thunder threat


free_man

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This sucks, this **** sucks. Felt really good with the sun out here then all of a sudden those piece of **** clouds came in and stuck around.

Yup. Nothing to track. No severe. No tropical systems. No 100F heat (only 98).

Only thing to track is the NFL labor negotiations. yay :rolleyes:

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This sucks, this **** sucks. Felt really good with the sun out here then all of a sudden those piece of **** clouds came in and stuck around.

Typical severe in SNE...what can go wrong often does go wrong. Days like 6/1/11 are the exception of course.

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sort of like when you guys are rooting for some clipper to redevelop underneath us and 95% of sne winds up getting flurries.

Those probably have about a 100x better chance of producing something than our severe "threats". :lol:

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Everything collapsing to the NW..one of the biggest Phails we've had in severe wx in awhile..and we've had many. 30% wind probs this morning lol..

I don't think it was that big of a fail. A lot of us weren't excited yesterday and weren't excited this morning.

The SPC didn't do well but several of us on the board were good.

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Everything collapsing to the NW..one of the biggest Phails we've had in severe wx in awhile..and we've had many. 30% wind probs this morning lol..

Cloud cover was the biggest issue..we must have said this so many times. The one thing that I thought might be possible was if we could possibly heat up in the aftn and fire stuff along the front. However two things happened. Earlier convection tainted the mid levels and cloud cover did not allow surface instability. That equals fail.

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I don't think it was that big of a fail. A lot of us weren't excited yesterday and weren't excited this morning.

The SPC didn't do well but several of us on the board were good.

I thought we'd get a few more storms than we did, but overall it definitely didn't look great for a widespread outbreak. A lot of marginal factors and then the clouds kind of put the nail in the coffin.

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With working all day yesterday I was unable to track things as they were unfolding so I tried going back to look up some stuff and just had a few thoughts on yesterday...just came up with them from the little I got to see yesterday when I got home so something could be off here.

After many locations in southern New England woke up to a great deal of sunshine, especially in CT clouds from a decaying MCS overspread the region and left us with lots of mid and high level clouds to deal with. These clouds inhibited stronger surface heating from occurring which made for an airmass that was not nearly as unstable as it could have been had their been stronger heating. Besides leaving us with a great deal of cloud cover the MCS also weakened the EML that was trying to overspread the region as latent heat release from the associated showers/thunderstorms warmed mid-level temps a bit, thus weakening the mid-level lapse rates. This as well acted to keep the airmass from becoming as unstable as it could have. With this, did these clouds prevent a potential outbreak or prevent a major severe weather event from occurring? IMO, I don't think they did.

From reading a few updated AFD's written yesterday and looking at some current obs (such as surface winds) it appears that the pre-frontal trough just out ahead of the cold front came through fairly early in the afternoon. There were quite a few obs showing winds coming from the west or even northwest. Once this occurred dewpoints sort of fell a bit, were only mid 60's as opposed to upper 60's. Winds shifting to these directions also highly limited the amount of surface convergence and also halted the more rich theta-e air from fully spreading into the region. Had there been full sun, or mostly sun in the morning through early afternoon would we have seen severe weather with the pre-frontal trough? Sure, absolutely, however, I still don't believe we would have seen a potent event. The pre-frontal trough coming through that early we probably still wouldn't have been moderately unstable and the stronger shear and best mid level/upper level support was still lagging behind.

Our best shot for a more widespread event was just out ahead of the cold front, which was timed to pass through the region mid to late afternoon...this is when things would have been moderately unstable and the best shear and support would have been over our region.

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