Mr Torchey Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Could care less about severe, just want rain, hoping to come home to a nice looking radar, maybe a tenth of an inch on the way, total rainfall failure, wont do anything. We are bone dry now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Watch SNE get stiffed on any rainfall. Totally bone dry leading into the upcoming nuclear period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 BOX tells Wiz not to suck on the gun just yet AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE RGN THE NEXT HR OR TWO IN ASSOC WITH A DIFFUSE MCS REMNANT FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY PD. THEREAFTER...UPSTREAM CLEARING HAS LED TO SFC BOUNDARY LYR DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE WX HAS DEVELOPED ACCORDINGLY. IN BREVITY...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVNG PD N/W OF THE FCST RGN AND ADVECT S/SE INTO THE S NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING AROUND 21Z AND ON INTO MIDNIGHT. THE SEVERITY OF THE WX MAY BE LESSENED BY THE FACT OF TODAYS ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER WX. NEVERTHELESS STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONVECTION...THE MAIN THREATS BEING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL... AND VERY MOIST ATMOS PROFILE...THERE IS STILL A CHC THIS EVNG OF SEEING LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. EVALUATING THE LATEST MESORUC ANALYSIS...TONGUE OF WARM THETAE AIR IS ADVECTING ALONG WITH 20-30 KT WLY FLOW FROM CENTRAL PA / S NY INTO S NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WX PRESENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE NW TIER OF THE NE CONUS. MESORUC ADVERTISES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE RGN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLN IS LOW WITH ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER. YET SFC TEMPS ARE MILD WITH FAIRLY MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND THIS AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT MAY SIMPLY BE FUEL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHUNTS S. SO WITH 30-40 KT NW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT...SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND A VERY WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS...LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED THREATS ALONG WITH TIMING ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 MD out for upstream MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO NRN NY AND NW VT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 181958Z - 182130Z STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NERN ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE ACROSS NRN NY INTO NRN VT AS WELL WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS RESULTED WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER SRN QUEBEC MOVING E/SE AND COUPLED WITH FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...MAY AID IN SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN NY/NW VT. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 25-40 KT. ..LEITMAN.. 07/18/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 NNE AND GC gets best severe.. what's new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 BOX tells Wiz not to suck on the gun just yet AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE RGN THE NEXT HR OR TWO IN ASSOC WITH A DIFFUSE MCS REMNANT FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY PD. THEREAFTER...UPSTREAM CLEARING HAS LED TO SFC BOUNDARY LYR DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE WX HAS DEVELOPED ACCORDINGLY. IN BREVITY...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVNG PD N/W OF THE FCST RGN AND ADVECT S/SE INTO THE S NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING AROUND 21Z AND ON INTO MIDNIGHT. THE SEVERITY OF THE WX MAY BE LESSENED BY THE FACT OF TODAYS ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER WX. NEVERTHELESS STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONVECTION...THE MAIN THREATS BEING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL... AND VERY MOIST ATMOS PROFILE...THERE IS STILL A CHC THIS EVNG OF SEEING LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. EVALUATING THE LATEST MESORUC ANALYSIS...TONGUE OF WARM THETAE AIR IS ADVECTING ALONG WITH 20-30 KT WLY FLOW FROM CENTRAL PA / S NY INTO S NEW ENGLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE WX PRESENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE NW TIER OF THE NE CONUS. MESORUC ADVERTISES SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE RGN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLN IS LOW WITH ATTENDANT CLOUD COVER. YET SFC TEMPS ARE MILD WITH FAIRLY MOIST DEWPOINTS...AND THIS AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT MAY SIMPLY BE FUEL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SHUNTS S. SO WITH 30-40 KT NW 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT...SOME MID-LVL INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND A VERY WARM AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS...LIKELY POPS SEEM WARRANTED ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED THREATS ALONG WITH TIMING ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Nice cell south of Bob. That area has had a decent season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Miraculously a couple moderate cells have popped down this way, hoping to get at least a tenth or two, better than nothing I guess.............nocturnal would be nice later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Miraculously a couple moderate cells have popped down this way, hoping to get at least a tenth or two, better than nothing I guess.............nocturnal would be nice later. good downpour here right now--will save everything from complete wiltage on Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Pouring with a couple impressive wind gusts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Kevin getting destroyed on his FB page, people were scared, Bizzs worst summer ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 SVR for the Cape now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Nice to jackpot for a change, wow its pouring, liquid gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Storms firing in NNH now! that one cell looks like it has hail Maybe these can actually hold as the drop due S instead of SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 cell that just popped up over myles standish state forest in plymouth is making a bee-line right for my sister...just crappy showers exiting my area...nice individual cells popping in C/NNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Going to be interesting to see what transpires this evening. The sun has finally came out, although likely too late to really do much but perhaps temps can bump up a few degrees...with the shower activity we had the low-level moisture/dews should get a boost as well which will help add to the instability, even with the slightest of warming. As many thought and what some models showed, convection really screwed with the ML lapse rates, however, they seem to actually be recovering quite well ahead of the front and ahead of the developing line of storms...ML lapse rates now nearing 7 C/KM and appear to be improving towards SNE as well, if this can happen here that would help to destabilize things further as well. Shear is pretty strong with vertical shear values in the 30-40 knots range and helicity values are quite high too and the shear should get a bit stronger as we move through the evening. Still should see some thunderstorms later this evening with the potential for some strong to severe weather but it shouldn't be anything too widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Kevin getting destroyed on his FB page, people were scared, Bizzs worst summer ever? He might have had the worst 6 week stretch in forecasting history going back to Benjamin Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 He might have had the worst 6 week stretch in forecasting history going back to Benjamin Franklin. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Oh, I prayyyy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 cell that just popped up over myles standish state forest in plymouth is making a bee-line right for my sister...just crappy showers exiting my area...nice individual cells popping in C/NNE... It almost looks as though those cells are forming into a line on the latest returns. Could this be what the NMM and ARW is hinting at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I actually wish though nothing would pop up over our region for like an hour or 90 minutes...the atmosphere is really trying to recover, especially those ML lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 cell that just popped up over myles standish state forest in plymouth is making a bee-line right for my sister...just crappy showers exiting my area...nice individual cells popping in C/NNE... dang in a matter of minutes that cell blew up, went severe, and bowed out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Gil Simmons just threw in the towel "Okay everyone..... The severe storms did not develop fast enough. Threat is done." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I actually wish though nothing would pop up over our region for like an hour or 90 minutes...the atmosphere is really trying to recover, especially those ML lapse rates. Looks like the line that developed LI-CC was the main threat. Not expecting much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looks like the line that developed LI-CC was the main threat. Not expecting much more. We'll see what happens as we go through the evening...stuff in VT looking quite healthy with some stuff developing in NY...maybe nothing widespread but probably isolated/scattered activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 We'll see what happens as we go through the evening...stuff in VT looking quite healthy with some stuff developing in NY...maybe nothing widespread but probably isolated/scattered activity. I wouldn't be surprised it a scattered line developed from NNH back into upstate NY... you can see it starting on satellite. But that'll wouldn't work down until at least 10PM and by that time meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Nice cell south of Bob. That area has had a decent season. Could here a couple rumbles of thunder. Had a brief downpour about 20 min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'd watch that cell in VT moving SSE..It's moving into a ripe enviro in CNE and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'd watch that cell in VT moving SSE..It's moving into a ripe enviro in CNE and SNE Yea its gonna hit Bennington for their weekly severe storm and then fade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This sucks, this **** sucks. Felt really good with the sun out here then all of a sudden those piece of **** clouds came in and stuck around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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