yoda Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Poor Wiz. Good thing he is at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 OVC mid level clouds now with some breaks to reveal the Ci/Cs deck attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MCS ROLLING SEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL DISTURBANCE THRUTHE H5 LONGWAVE PATTERN...AMPLIFIED BY H5-H7 STEEP MID-LVL LAPSERATES PER ALBANY SOUNDING...AND FED BY LLVL H925 MOIST THETAECONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD. ALTHO IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTSWARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE LLVLS ARE BECOMINGPRIMED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WITH THE MESORUC SUGGESTINGUP TO 1500 J/KG IN S-CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...CONCURRENT TO BUILDINGSFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OUT OF THE W/SW...PRESENTLY TAKING PLACEOVER W NY AHEAD OF THE LINE. HOW EFFECTIVELY THIS MCS WILLCONTINUE REMAINS TO BE SEEN...YET AS PER WSR-88D TRENDS CONVECTIONIS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MCS LINE IN S VT.MESOANALYSIS OF THE UPR LVL LONGWAVE PATTERN DOES HIGHLIGHTDIFLUENT MOTIONS OVER THE RGN SUPPORTIVE OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT...YET NOTABLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE RGN OF THE JET AXIS...RIGHT EXITRGN. STILL FEEL BY MIDDAY INTO AFTN THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FORSEVERE WX. POINTING OUT SOME OF THE PARTICULARS...0-6 KM BULKSHEAR VECTORS OUT OF THE NW ARE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFCCOLD FRONT...PRESENTLY STREWN SE OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VLY ANDAVERAGE AROUND 45 KTS. 0-6 KM MEAN WIND IS ALSO OUT OF THE NWAROUND AN AVG OF 30 KTS. SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SWWITH STRONG MID-LVL FLOW OUT OF THE NW...ALREADY THIS MORNING H85FLOW FROM VWPS HAS BEEN AROUND 40-45 KTS...AND THIS SFC TO MID-LVLFLOW PRESENTS A VEERING PATTERN OF WIND WITH HEIGHT.AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WITH THE DIURNALHEATING OF THE DAY AND LIKELY LLVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THRUTHE DAY. VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG SFC BASED CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLEWITH LLVLS STEEPENING AND COUPLING WITH THE H5-H7 STEEP MID-LVLLAPSE RATES...PER ALBANY SOUNDING...OF 6-7 C/KM. MOIST CONVERGENCEPRESENTLY OVER W NY AT LLVLS WILL FOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THISMORNINGS MCS AND ADVECT EWD OVER NEW ENGLAND. ALBANY SOUNDINGHIGHLIGHTED 1.64 PW...AND BUFFALO AT 1.88 PW. ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...FEELING IS THERE WILL STILL BE TWO WAVESOF CONVECTION. /FIRST/ WITH THE MCS INTO THIS EARLY AFTN...ALONGAND AHEAD OF WHICH CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM WITH THEDESTABILIZATION AND LIFT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY LAYER. CANT RULE OUTISOLATED THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGINGWINDS. THE SITUATED WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. /SECOND/ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT POISED SE OF THE ST LAWRENCEVLY RGN...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE REBOUNDING BEHIND THE MCS OVERTHE ERN GRT LKS RGN. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO HIGHLIGHT SOMECLEARING WHICH SHOULD ACT TO AID THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE SFCBOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FEELTHIS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW OF THREATS FOR THIS LATER AFTN INTOEVNG...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND THEISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELLCLUSTERS AND LEWPS...BUT WITH S/SW SFC FLOW AND FAST MID-LVL FLOWOUT OF THE W/NW...COUPLED WITH SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLDFRONT...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT PERSPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LIKELY TO SEE STRONG STORMS INTO THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLYAFTN PERIOD WITH THIS FIRST LINE...AFTER WHICH A LULL MAY OCCURTHRU AFTN...WHENCE BY LATE AFTN WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE SECONDWAVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY SEVEREWX THREATS...THOUGH THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS NOTHING AS OF YETHAS EVOLVED...AND WHETHER THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL HAVE ANYEFFECT TO THE AFTN POTENTIAL. WILL MODIFY WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE ANDFOCUS MAIN ATTENTION TO THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE WX FOR NOW.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 side note: post editing is really terrible on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah it's possible. Recall on June 1st after he first line of cells went through, we had that awesome light show develop in the evening. BOX looks like they agree with the late aftn/evening with better dynamics.Just gotta have to wait and see. ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...FEELING IS THERE WILL STILL BE TWO WAVES OF CONVECTION. /FIRST/ WITH THE MCS INTO THIS EARLY AFTN...ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM WITH THE DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY LAYER. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SITUATED WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. /SECOND/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT POISED SE OF THE ST LAWRENCE VLY RGN...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE REBOUNDING BEHIND THE MCS OVER THE ERN GRT LKS RGN. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO HIGHLIGHT SOME CLEARING WHICH SHOULD ACT TO AID THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FEEL THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW OF THREATS FOR THIS LATER AFTN INTO EVNG...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND THE ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LEWPS...BUT WITH S/SW SFC FLOW AND FAST MID-LVL FLOW OUT OF THE W/NW...COUPLED WITH SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT...SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LIKELY TO SEE STRONG STORMS INTO THE MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN PERIOD WITH THIS FIRST LINE...AFTER WHICH A LULL MAY OCCUR THRU AFTN...WHENCE BY LATE AFTN WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE SECOND WAVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS...THOUGH THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS NOTHING AS OF YET HAS EVOLVED...AND WHETHER THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION WILL HAVE ANY EFFECT TO THE AFTN POTENTIAL. WILL MODIFY WITH THE 1 PM UPDATE AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Storms entering Southern Berkshire Cty starting to look better on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Storms entering Southern Berkshire Cty starting to look better on radar That line should perk up a little more, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looks like things are starting to clear up in NNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Idk what you guys are talking about but the suns been.blaring.here all day and its 85 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Idk what you guys are talking about but the suns been.blaring.here all day and its 85 lol It's been sunny everywhere in SNE..that isn't the issue. We're talking about it screwing things up for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Looks like instead of intensifying the line is weakening. I guess that's good. Let's just get this disaster in and out as quickly as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Idk what you guys are talking about but the suns been.blaring.here all day and its 85 lol The first round of showers needs to clear up fast do we can spike the instability with sunshine and fire storms in the pm time . your morning sun will just get erased when those showers work in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised if this is washed up south of the MA border once it reaches here. Still have to contend with a few hours of overcast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 First rumble of thunder here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Torrential rains now.. Ryan wasn't lying when he said were saturated That storm exploded over MHT.. pretty decent thunder and lightning here now The wind was actually pretty awesome with that storm.. must of been 25-30kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I realize that I just thought people near me were saying they already had clouds a couple hours ago...nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 drove through that storm in Windham/Londonderry. Heavy rain and some wind, nothing spectuacular. Nice cloud formations though. It was around 90 in Gov't Ctr and Downtown, 71 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 drove through that storm in Windham/Londonderry. Heavy rain and some wind, nothing spectuacular. Nice cloud formations though. It was around 90 in Gov't Ctr and Downtown, 71 here. It was pretty good here too.. probably the best storm well see all day here.. hopefully not tho.. its.actually starting to clear up now to the west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Heavy rain here in Andover too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 73/69.. how is it gonna reach 90? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Line is really washing out now. Doubt I see much of anything beyond a few sprinkles here in Shrewsbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 HRRR continues to show a line developing in CNY and moving through SNE down towards NYC in about 4 between 3-6PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I'd like to see some storms start to form in NY state.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 New SPC OTLK kicks the 5% tor and 30% wind.... only 15% now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 today reminds me of the June '10 severe bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 FARTHER S...MORNING CONVECTION IS WEAKENING ACROSS SE NY/MA...BUT SUBSTANTIAL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DURING THE DAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY WWD. THERE WILL BE SOME DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION...AND ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PA IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX MOVING SEWD OVER LAKE ERIE. SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN PA. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH DEEP-LAYER WNWLY/NWLY SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 New SPC OTLK kicks the 5% tor and 30% wind.... only 15% now AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Stick the proverbial fork in this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 New SPC OTLK kicks the 5% tor and 30% wind.... only 15% now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 At least Wiz is at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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