free_man Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 No sun or heat, beach, torch talk. There are several threads dedicated to that. Next best chance of widespread rain in SNE seems to be Monday or Tues AM, with prefrontal trof or MCS night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 100% sun today. not too much heat. beach would be nice. looks like a torch later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 100% sun today. not too much heat. beach would be nice. looks like a torch later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 100% sun today. not too much heat. beach would be nice. looks like a torch later next week. LOL , can not beat the beach in the heat. Great sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 If you light a torch despite the heat on the beach, will the torch increase the heat on the beach, and add to the torch? If so, some rain would help. Beaches can be very hot, be-atches can be, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 zzz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 100% sun today. not too much heat. beach would be nice. looks like a torch later next week. oy vay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Too bad as of right now the ML lapse rates suck...not really a bad setup at all Monday...just a question of timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Looks like moderate CAPE around 1500 J/kg or so, nice difluence at 250mb, decent veering winds throughout the column, solid low level jet. 500mb temps more than -8 or so definitely a mitigating factor. Later runs showing cooler temps though luckily. Both NAM and GFS showing decent QPF across the region. Looks like perhaps a squall line moving almost north to south hitting SNE early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 In any event; a good beach day for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Too bad as of right now the ML lapse rates suck...not really a bad setup at all Monday...just a question of timing. 00z NAM lapse rates are fine, the other soundings "appear" to be okay. >6c/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 ...NERN STATES TO THE MIDWEST... LARGE REGION OF POTENTIAL SVR WEATHER WILL UNFOLD ON MONDAY. A SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NERN STATES MONDAY AFTN WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT. WSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT BOTH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING PWATS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER QUE/SERN ONT AND PSBLY NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE DAY. AMID INCREASING WNW FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTN INSTABILITY...BANDS OF STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH FROM CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO PARTS OF NY. WRN PARTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ BY EVENING. HIGH WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. Don't blame me for jinxing it this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Monday does look somewhat interesting. Shear isn't super impressive, but pretty good CAPES and lapse rates look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Monday does look somewhat interesting. Shear isn't super impressive, but pretty good CAPES and lapse rates look decent. Potentially some nice upper level jet support there too depending on the evolution of the 250hpa flow. Looks promising...which is about all you can ask for at 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Would love to see what the 06Z NAM spits out come to fruition for Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 GFS tries to actually get an EML to work in here, has ML lapse rates up near 7 C/KM while the NAM is complete crap with them...only around 6 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Looks like this upper level support might stick around through next week with multiple chances for severe weather. Looks like a solid chance of storms possibly Weds through Fri, then after a bit of ridging, another dynamic set up early next week. For Monday I'm liking how the nose of that 250mb jet is aimed right at New England. NAM definitely backed off on helicity a bit from previous runs but still modest veering and speed shear for the middle of summer. GFS and NAM both showing moderate instability between 1000-2000j/kg, GFS a little better with this with cooler 500mb temps. Some of our best events have a mix of moderate instability and moderate shear, and of course we have a forcing of a surface front to kick things off. Just hoping 500mb temps stay around -10C or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 NAM has a lot of QPF for monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 30%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 NAM showing another tornado over Springfield Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 30%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! mod risk later today? surely the icing on the jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 mod risk later today? surely the icing on the jinx This is looking pretty damn impressive, almost June 1st impressive but not quite the tornadic threat...at least not right now but that is certainly a possibility. Staying up for the 3z SPC SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 This is looking pretty damn impressive, almost June 1st impressive but not quite the tornadic threat...at least not right now but that is certainly a possibility. Staying up for the 3z SPC SREF. It looks really good so far, esp now that we're 1.5 days out. Not nearly as good as June1, but every event is unique, so it's comparing apples and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks really good so far, esp now that we're 1.5 days out. Not nearly as good as June1, but every event is unique, so it's comparing apples and oranges. Unique indeed...and in all honesty I'm not a fan of comparing events...at all. Every single event and setup is different...sure you might have a lot of similarities but all it takes is one small, tiny difference to make a setup very unique. We'll see what happens...right now my current thinking is we see two lines of intense storms with damaging winds and large hail...possibly some supercells out ahead of the first line...BUT these supercells that may develop may actually start to form the first line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I just hope no tornados hit when I'm mowing the lawn at my place below ALB tomorrow afternoon. 59 with the birds chirping outside now.... Unique indeed...and in all honesty I'm not a fan of comparing events...at all. Every single event and setup is different...sure you might have a lot of similarities but all it takes is one small, tiny difference to make a setup very unique. We'll see what happens...right now my current thinking is we see two lines of intense storms with damaging winds and large hail...possibly some supercells out ahead of the first line...BUT these supercells that may develop may actually start to form the first line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 HAVE TO WATCH FOR UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WHICH COULD THROW WRENCH INTO ALL OF THIS. RIGHT NOW MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT ANY COMPLEX WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR W AS IT RIDES AROUND PERIPHERY OF STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE...BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS OR LEFTOVER SHOWERS COULD LIMIT HEATING MON. This may be a problem..I see NWS mentioned cloud debris. Watch a large decaying MCS will roll in Monday, right around 8-10am. Actually I'm not convinced it will really matter so much since lapse rates are okay later on, wind field reasonably good, plus a decent cold front/wind shift to lift. If one of those were off, different story. MUCape should recover. Even with the atmosphere wrangled some because of debris, should still be a somewhat interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Right now I'm thinking 4-7 TOR's tomorrow,, but reserve the right to up that amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Wow the GFS looks pretty impressive for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Bring it on. More rains to get us through a week of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I think SNE is gonna benefit for its latitude, because I think there might be some crappy mid level clouds over NNE. Looks like some stuff goes through NNE late night tonight which would probably mean there will be left over convective stuff up that way. This may also waft down into SNE, but at least we should have some solar heating. Also even if clouds muck up the heating a bit, we have continuous height falls, so it shouldn't be too capped. Shear looks pretty good as well across CT and up into western mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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