wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z gfs looks good, less precip tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The temp has been dropping like a rock. We're sitting 16.7F with 43%RH. That's a dewpoint of approximately 0. We will see tomorrow morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z sucks... Looks like 2 inches of snow for all of WNY... I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 FOLLOWING THIS AS THE MOST LIKELY (BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN) SCENARIO…EXPECT SNOW TO LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. AM CONFIDENT IT WILL PRECIPITATE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT…HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL FALL. MODELS WITH A WESTERN TRACK HAVE ALSO KEPT THE 850 LOW WEST…WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION SLEET OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN…WHILE THE FAVORED EASTERN TRACK WOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW YORK. WILL CARRY SNOW/SLEET IN THE FORECAST AS THE MOST LIKELY TWO. AS THE LOW EITHER TRACKS EAST…AND/OR A COASTAL LOW TAKES OVER…COLDER AIR WILL BUILD ON THE BACK OF THE LOW…CHANGING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM…WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A POSSIBILITY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS MOSTLY SNOW. THIS…COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS…MIGHT RESULT IN DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NWS BUF Buffalo remaining a little too conservative IMO. Taking into account every possible model, there is pretty much no scenario that won't create horrible driving conditions Sunday night. If one were to take the 12z GFS verbatim, Sunday night will be a storm we talk about in future years....Huge Negatively tilted 300mb trough, sub 970mb low, ridiculous temps on the backside, and then this thing gets pinned by the -NAO and retrogrades over Eastern Canada. Stay East baby, no whammy's.....stop! Its kind of a big deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18z sucks... Looks like 2 inches of snow for all of WNY... I'm not buying it. Never sweat the off hour models man, they'll poison your brain. I haven't looked at one since last winter and don't feel I've missed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It still looks as though WNY is going to be buried by the end of next week. In the past 3 days Lake Erie's temp as dropped 4F to 39F. Between the cold temps, wind, evaporation cooling, and 40+ inches of snow that have been dumped in parts of the lake it's cooling quickly. Here in ENY the Sunday/Monday storm looks interesting. If we do end up with rain, it's not going anywhere with the ground being frozen...and we can expect a flash freeze by Monday. Between DT, the Euro, and lake cutters of Nina past, I'm not sold on a frozen event for us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The temp has been dropping like a rock. We're sitting 16.7F with 43%RH. That's a dewpoint of approximately 0. We will see tomorrow morning... Wow. I just came inside and it didn't feel that cold out. 13.2° here now. 2 more inches of snow today for a total of 22". Skies are clear now so I may be done with the snow, but it may get mighty cold tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 4 more inches here in Liverpool.....total snow for event....43"....snow on ground 28"....currently heavy snow....looking for 8-16" overnight....18z GFS has issues, looks like a new shortwave has "popped up" in between the 2 branches, which knocks the ridging down a bit, and delays any kind of consolidation of energy into base by a good 6-12 hours.....so the spread between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro is about 800 miles!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Central Oneida County was getting slammed. I got close to 4" in about 90 minutes in New Hartford. The drive home was wonderful for about the first 3 miles. Nothing here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The 18z GFS is awful. At most 4" for ottawa if that were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Only 4 1/2 inches so far for herkimer through the event so far. Snowing real good now with huge flakez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Another dusting for the "Dusting King" total of 3 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Moderate snow here for the last 30 minutes or so. Band has parked itself right over here. Sorry Andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I would take an Ice storm over another rainout.It is getting cold out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 4 more inches here in Liverpool.....total snow for event....43"....snow on ground 28"....currently heavy snow....looking for 8-16" overnight....18z GFS has issues, looks like a new shortwave has "popped up" in between the 2 branches, which knocks the ridging down a bit, and delays any kind of consolidation of energy into base by a good 6-12 hours.....so the spread between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro is about 800 miles!! Onondaga County did very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Another dusting for the "Dusting King" total of 3 inches on the ground. Your time will come...there is still 4-5 months of Winter left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 I'm glad to see so many folks cashing in that didn't get much snow last year. We didn't have much in the "eastern central northern" NY area (Johnsburg / south-central Adirondacks), but the ground was white from Thanksgiving on. We're still brown, but I think that will change in the next week or two:) I look forward to checking out the models, and everyone's opinions here over the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Onondaga County did is doing very well. Hope you don't mind the change! ....moderate snow ATT....band is getting ready to settle, and am awaiting intensification/possible upstream connection soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I say no. Its in the Upper Hudson Valley. While the Adirondack Park does extend south to north of Glens Falls (as well as a part of NW Saratoga County) the Adirondacks refer to the more mountainous area to the North thru West of GFL. You are right. Most of the Adirondack range is included in the 6 million acre State Park. However. what most people think of as the Adirondacks encompasses a much smaller area. Unlike most mountain ranges the Adirondacks are not connected; instead they are a collection of around 100 peaks; 46 of which are called the High Peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danno Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 why does it only snow at night? Not that I'm complaing, but 99% of my plowable snow seems to come at night, including this huge go around. I understand later in the season, the sun angle really breaks down lake effect, but did not think it would be such a factor in mid december. I've plowed 15-18" out of my driveway the last 3 mornings, and it has all come at night. Seems like the upper great lakes only crank in the overnight? We had some very intense squalls downtown Syracuse, but they only lasted an hour and did not accumulate much. I've seen it snow/accumulate hard during the day on the Tug, but rarely down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Baby it's cold outside...temp here is down to 5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 well, the 0z GFS is in and it depicts a BUST for the Ottawa region. maybe a period of moderate snow, but then just more of what we've had this week, with lots of wind and flurries and the lake effect areas getting buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 ... Onondaga County... Liverpool 43.0 600 PM 12/8 still snowing Syracuse 41.1 1000 PM 12/8 Syracuse Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Hope you don't mind the change! ....moderate snow ATT....band is getting ready to settle, and am awaiting intensification/possible upstream connection soon. I'm happy that you are doing well. .. ..I just wish, I was getting at least a little more than what I've been getting the last few days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 ... Onondaga County... Liverpool 43.0 600 PM 12/8 still snowing Syracuse 41.1 1000 PM 12/8 Syracuse Airport just saw a webcam from the quad at SU looks like its coming down at a good clip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 just saw a webcam from the quad at SU looks like its coming down at a good clip Yup, still cranking! What are the early thoughts for next weeks LE? Anything near the magnitude of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Yup, still cranking! What are the early thoughts for next weeks LE? Anything near the magnitude of this? this is unprecedented to see 4 and 5 day totals most likely exceeding 50 inches...it'd be hard pressed to be as good as this event but there will definitely be some bonafide LES after the passage of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Down to 11F here. Baby it's cold outside...temp here is down to 5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY Mike Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 well, the 0z GFS is in and it depicts a BUST for the Ottawa region. maybe a period of moderate snow, but then just more of what we've had this week, with lots of wind and flurries and the lake effect areas getting buried. At lest the GFS is the outliar, with the EURO, UKMET, and CMC having the low track further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 -2 here brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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