Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[NorEaster27]

12z GFS certainly says ADK high peaks get ready....path of surface low- just inland of Long Island and then moving through Conn. and into VT strongly favors the ADK. Kinda looks like a snow to mix as WAA overspreads the region then back to snow as low moves east of the region and tightens. Lets see what the Euro comes up with tomorrow as we get into it's 4 day dead-eye range.

Also- looking at the NAM for support it sure seems like will it holds cyclogenisis off until the system is east enough to cut at least east off the app spine- a similar track to the GFS.

I'm still putting my eggs in the low tracking into the Buffalo region but this is an interesting development nonetheless.

I think the ADKs can do very well with this storm, even if it goes over to a mix for a period of time. A heavy wet snow would be great for the area to lay down a real base for ski areas and sled trails.

[danno]

Snowing as hard now in downtown Syracuse as it has for the past 3 days. Another 15" last night as the band set up right over my house. Strom totals now over 40". Leaving work early to clear roofs - not too worried with what we have now, but with extended forecast, more snow (or rain) in 3'-4' sitting on my roof would be bad, very bad.

[adk]

I think the ADKs can do very well with this storm, even if it goes over to a mix for a period of time. A heavy wet snow would be great for the area to lay down a real base for ski areas and sled trails.

It would certainly help to consolidate the many many inches the high peaks picked up over the last few days. A little slop on top would do very well to consolidate this fluff into a base.

[ontario squalls]

Im really feeling left out. Only 17 inches for me over the last 4 days. Got a feeling I'll catch up by end of winter.

[Kaner587]

56.2 4 day total at SYR (airport). That is equivalent to 45% of average seasonal snowfall in 4 days. Wow

[winter_rules]

Im really feeling left out. Only 17 inches for me over the last 4 days. Got a feeling I'll catch up by end of winter.

I hear you on that! In some twisted way I feel like a "loser" with 20" on the ground. Semi-official storm total for me would be 29" through this morning. That's with new measurements every 12hrs.

The semi warm storm will help all sled and ski trails compact as long as we don't get too much rain. That would make for a great base all over the snowbelts!

[CoastalWx]

56.2 4 day total at SYR (airport). That is equivalent to 45% of average seasonal snowfall in 4 days. Wow

It sure looked like it could be a very impressive event, last week. Glad it worked out.

[Organizing Low]

5 feet of snow at syracuse airport??

wow!

[Organizing Low]

hey, did LES Chaser aka Ty make it over to this board?

he must be doing some serious chasing, lol

[Organizing Low]

everything was ok until the euro rolled in

front end snow to mix/rain for all

followed by retrograde secondary low

[2Slick]

Updated totals with more to come tonight

... Onondaga County...

Clay 47.0 1111 am 12/8 cocorahs

Van Buren 42.5 1110 am 12/8 cocorahs

Clay 39.6 1113 am 12/8 cocorahs

Syracuse Airport 38.2 1245 PM 12/8 coop

Marcellus 36.1 1111 am 12/8 cocorahs

Brewerton 20.7 1236 PM 12/8 coop

[2Slick]

Nasty Lake-Effect Snow Event Follows

In the wake of the storm, the coldest air of the season so far, and perhaps the entire winter season, will follow.

Some of the snowbelts downwind of the Great Lakes could easily receive from 1 to 3 feet of new snow next week.

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, "The heavy load of snow may cause roofs to fail."

"If the snowfall happens as forecast, it could mean some locations will have 5 to 10 feet of snow on the ground from the most recent lake-effect, the storm and the new lake-effect," Anderson added.

[CNYWxGuy]

12z GFS Ensemble Mean is a solid hit for the Appalachian Spine and Upstate NY. However, it should be noted there remains a good deal of member spread, and the GFS Ens Mean has a noted southeast / cold bias at times...

[2Slick]

Good video I found taken by someone over at the Golden Snowball site.

[met_fan]

Updated totals with more to come tonight

... Onondaga County...

Clay 47.0 1111 am 12/8 cocorahs

Van Buren 42.5 1110 am 12/8 cocorahs

Clay 39.6 1113 am 12/8 cocorahs

Syracuse Airport 38.2 1245 PM 12/8 coop

Marcellus 36.1 1111 am 12/8 cocorahs

Brewerton 20.7 1236 PM 12/8 coop

What happened to the 56" report from the airport?

[2Slick]

What happened to the 56" report from the airport?

I don't know where he got that total from. Haven't seen it around anywhere...

[WNYLakeEffect]

3.5" last night, 3.5" today with on and off squalls. 23.6" storm total, 18" on the ground. Hoping for a last minute boost to 30" tonight.

[LakeEffectKing]

Pic from around noon on the SU quad....snowing at what I'd guess as 2"/hr.:

[Kaner587]

What happened to the 56" report from the airport?

On the 1136 am updated PNS it said 56.2 at the airport which I thought looked funky but it was revised and fixed on the subsequent PNS. They must've added one of the daily totals twice or something. Either way after today and tonight it'll prob be close to 56 lol

[LakeEffectKing]

One more on campus:

[2Slick]

Here are some pics I took yesterday afternoon. Will upload ones from today later on.

http://img192.images...g=dscn1926l.jpg

I'm not to great at taking pictures, sorry if some of them are crappy...)

[LakeEffectKing]

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...FOR THIS AFTERNOON A RATHER BROAD AREA OF SNOW

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUPPORT FROM UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS OFF

GEORGIAN BAY. LATEST NAM AND WORKSTATION WRF SHOW THE LAKE SNOWS

ORIENTING MAINLY FURTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY

FROM MONROE COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY ALL THE WAY TO

SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. EARLIER FORECAST TOTALS FOR MONROE COUNTY

LOOK FINE FOR TODAY (2-5 INCHES). HAVE UPPED AMNTS A BIT FOR WAYNE

AND NORTHERN CAYUGA TO 5-7 INCHES FOR TODAY. AMOUNTS FOR OSWEGO LOOK

OK AS WELL, 3-5" SOUTH AND 1-3" ELSEWHERE. FURTHER TO THE NORTH

EXPECT ONLY SCT LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN

INCH, AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE TUG.

BY LATE AFTERNOON THE NAM SUGGESTS THE GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION WILL

BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED WITH MOST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING

AN INTENSIFYING BAND STRETCHING FROM THE MONROE COUNTY LAKESHORE AND

EASTERN ROCHESTER SUBURBS EAST ACROSS WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA AND

SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY TONIGHT GIVEN THE

VERY FAVORABLE WIND ORIENTATION FOR AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO

GEORGIAN BAY. AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH

WILL ALSO AID IN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HAVE INCREASED

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH OVER A FOOT IN WAYNE/NORTHERN

CAYUGA COUNTIES...AND 6-10 INCHES ALONG THE MONROE COUNTY LAKESHORE

INTO THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER...MAINLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE

BAND MAKES A SUBTLE SINK SOUTHWARD. THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS

OF THE CITY SHOULD ESCAPE THE SNOW MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE

BAND MAY SINK FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND IMPACT MUCH

OF THE METRO AREA FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. FARTHER EAST IN OSWEGO

COUNTY...IT APPEARS ONLY THE EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF

THE COUNTY WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

[2001kx]

im jealous

if i had the money i would buy a house in one of the favored LE area.

one of these days.

[Powderqueen]

12z GFS Ensemble Mean is a solid hit for the Appalachian Spine and Upstate NY. However, it should be noted there remains a good deal of member spread, and the GFS Ens Mean has a noted southeast / cold bias at times...

I like the look of these, but I find it interesting that the NWS BGM posted at 2:52pm that the GFS favored the warmer more western track.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 352 AM...MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE WILL BE THE

SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 0Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FAR ENOUGH WEST...OR

JUST OVER OUR AREA. THIS STORM TRACK WOULD KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA

ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WE STILL LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH

FOR EVERYONE TO START OUT AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY

MORNING. LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON A WARM NOSE

AROUND 900 MB WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN.

THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE LONGER ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE THE

COLDER AIR IS SLOWER TO RETREAT...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN A

POSSIBILITY. THE OTHER PROBLEM SPOT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN

SOUTHERN TIER. IF THE MODELS ARE ACCURATE...THESE AREAS WOULD BE

ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STORM AND MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR

MIXED PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALL AND ALL AFTER A SHOT AT SNOW

AND OR/MIXED PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY ITS LOOKING LIKE MOSTLY A RAIN

EVENT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR A

CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW EVENTUALLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT

AGAIN NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...

[BuffaloWeather]

NOW FOR THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST…THE

POTENTIALLY MAJOR SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT THE OPERATIONA

GFS/EUROPEAN/GGEM AND THE MAJORITY (80%) OF GFS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS…IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL

DEVELOP AS A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROF ENTERS

APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THE PART THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH

IS IF/WHEN/WHERE A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. STILL FEEL THAT FROM A

CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT…A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED GIVEN

THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE NOT

TOO MUCH IS READ IN THE SPECIFICS…THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS MUCH

MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE EUROPEAN/GGEM…AND IS MUCH MORE IN LINE

WITH OUR GOING FORECAST.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

everything was ok until the euro rolled in

front end snow to mix/rain for all

followed by retrograde secondary low

The Euro is the outlier (or is it the out-liar? lol) from what I can gather. having said this, many forecasters, including Brett Anderson of accuweather seem to be married to that model. Joe Bastardi seems to think our area will get hit hard, but we'll see.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

One of the things that I'm really anticipating with this upcoming storm is the arctic blast behind it. It's been a long time since we've seen a major snowstorm followed by rapidly falling temperatures and clearing skies. Even the December 16,2007 storm didn't have this. That storm seemed to take the cold air out with it. It looks like next Monday could see temperatures falling through the teens and into single digets in my area.

[CNYWxGuy]

I like the look of these, but I find it interesting that the NWS BGM posted at 2:52pm that the GFS favored the warmer more western track.

Yeah, although that was published earlier this morning following last night's 0z runs. The newly issued disco following today's 12z runs depicts a lot more uncertainty...

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ACTIVE PERIOD WITH FIRST A STRONG STORM GOING THROUGH SUNDAY THEN EVEN COLDER AIR THAN NOW NEXT WEEK. A STRONG STORM DIGS SE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FORMING A SFC STORM. WITH THE DEEP SLOWING UPPER LEVEL TROF GOING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN US THE SFC LOW WILL SLOW. IN ADDITION GULF OF MEXICO AIR WILL MOVE NORTH INTO NY AND PA AHEAD OF THE STORM INTO US LATE SAT NGT TO SUN NGT. GFS...CANADIAN GGEM AND THE EURO ARE SIMILAR WITH THE SNOW TRACK AND RAIN SNOW LINE. WITH THE TRACK TO THE WEST OF BGM...THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. LATE SAT NGT THE PRECIP SHOULD START AS SNOW THEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IN THE SE WHILE THE FAR NW IN THE FINGER LAKES MAY GET JUST SNOW. THIS TRACK AND PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE AS IT GETS CLOSER. MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THAT. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THIS IS ANOTHER STRONG STORM WITH VERY DEEP SATURATED AIR. LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND AN INCH.

[wolfie09]

NWS in Alb

MAJOR SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LARGE

DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN...

BUT THE ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IS THAT THIS SHOULD BE A

SIGNIFICANT EVENT...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SURFACE LOW

EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 980 MB...POSSIBLE AS LOW AS 970 MB...AS

THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THE REGION.

GETTING BACK TO THE DETAILS OF THIS EVENT AND TO THE RANGE OF

POSSIBILITIES. ON THE WARM EXTREME (12Z ECMWF RUN) WE HAVE THE

SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST

AREA...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PCPN TO START THE

EVENT...THEN MAINLY RAIN DURING THE BULK OF THE EVENT...WITH A

FAIRLY SLOW COOL DOWN ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...BUT IT

ARRIVES AFTER ALL THE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN DEPARTS...SO NOT

MUCH WINTRY WEATHER WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE WOULD EXIST A

FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH THIS SCENARIO.

ON THE OTHER EXTREME...AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND NCEP

EXTENDED GUIDANCE...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO

MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE

SURFACE PRESSURE DROPPING TO NEAR 970 MB BY 12Z MONDAY. INITIALLY...

PCPN BEGINS AS SNOW...THEN CHANGES TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR SURGES

IN...BUT SURFACE TEMPS NOSEDIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RAPID CHANGEOVER

TO SNOW...AND THE STEADY SNOW CONTINUES FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE

TAPERING OFF...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG WINDS.

FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE SECOND SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE.

RAISE POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...KEEP THEM

LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LOWER TO CHANCE ON MONDAY.

AFTER THIS STORM GOES BY...EXPECT BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR TO POUR

INTO THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL REACH 10 BELOW TO 10

ABOVE...AND THE HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO

AROUND 20...AND THERE WILL BE A STRONG GUSTY WIND THROUGH THIS

PERIOD. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID

20S.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

[lakeeffectkid383]

FOLLOWING THIS AS THE MOST LIKELY (BUT FAR FROM CERTAIN)

SCENARIO…EXPECT SNOW TO LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. AM

CONFIDENT IT WILL PRECIPITATE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT…HAVE A

LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL FALL. MODELS WITH A WESTERN TRACK HAVE

ALSO KEPT THE 850 LOW WEST…WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MIXED

PRECIPITATION SLEET OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN…WHILE THE FAVORED

EASTERN TRACK WOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW IN NORTHERN AND

WESTERN NEW YORK. WILL CARRY SNOW/SLEET IN THE FORECAST AS THE MOST

LIKELY TWO. AS THE LOW EITHER TRACKS EAST…AND/OR A COASTAL LOW

TAKES OVER…COLDER AIR WILL BUILD ON THE BACK OF THE LOW…CHANGING

ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF

MOISTURE WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM…WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW

ACCUMULATIONS A POSSIBILITY IF PRECIPITATION FALLS AS MOSTLY SNOW.

THIS…COMBINED WITH INCREASING WINDS…MIGHT RESULT IN

DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY INTO

SUNDAY NIGHT.

NWS BUF