Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[West Point, NY]

I don't like the very narrow, consolidated appearance of the precip field at this stage. With the weaker storm you would want a more widespread overrunning look. This puppy needs to go negative tilt soon as I don't see a large expansion of the western edge of the precip shield as bombogenesis is occurring..........actually a NW-SE contraction is more likely as she heads towards SNE. But the beauty of these storms are that they are all different and maybe this one has a wrinkle in it to come that will surprise. One good thing early this morning is the greatest pressure falls appear to be NNW of the center.

[LakeEffectKing]

11z RUC really pushes the band of heavy snow north and west.....similar to a few SREF western members:

[FEFD17]

I am at work now,my work truck has the weather band in it. The NWS is really all over the place with winds with this storm. Another 24/7 local news station met was saying the winds could be stronger than what they were showing on screen.I will try to stop by today between calls with reports,I will probably be all over the place with calls. Good luck everybody!!!!!

[TheRealeDeal]

Snowfall Forecast for Central NY:

[2Slick]

Blizzard warning for NYC.

lol.

[Wx4cast]

Snowfall Forecast for Central NY:

Looks pretty good Real. Similar to my first call from last night. Although I still think it won't take much for these bands to be shifted some NW .

[West Point, NY]

Looks pretty good Real. Similar to my first call from last night. Although I still think it won't take much for these bands to be shifted some NW .

Andy, It's not bothering you looking at radar trends with the western extent of the precip only back into extreme E.PA ?I realize there will be a more northerly trajectory later but when the collapsing begins it won't have to go far to leave the MV, CD and especially UHV

[Wx4cast]

Andy, It's not bothering you looking at radar trends with the western extent of the precip only back into extreme E.PA ?I realize there will be a more northerly trajectory later but when the collapsing begins it won't have to go far to leave the MV, CD and especially UHV

Jeff,

Not yet. As this thing explodes you'll see expansion north and west. I envision a scenario similar to the 66 hour storm of of March 2001. System rapidly deepened and in this case stalled and looped between ELI and ACK and as it did vast amounts of moisture were hurled back WNW across New England and the UHV mostly on the "backside" of the storm.

BTW I still think this storm will wind up being deeper as it approaches LI then whatever the deepest model is showing.

[adk]

I'm really curious about the snow totals in the catskills. All the models seem to create a heavy pocket of snow smack dab in the middle. G-wave? Deformation zone? Orogaphic enhancement? Not sure what the exact cause is but if this low does track through L.I. anywhere I suspect the models will be right and the Catskills might get a real wallup. 16-20 inches for sure.

[West Point, NY]

Jeff,

Not yet. As this thing explodes you'll see expansion north and west. I envision a scenario similar to the 66 hour storm of of March 2001. System rapidly deepened and in this case stalled and looped between ELI and ACK and as it did vast amounts of moisture were hurled back WNW across New England and the UHV mostly on the "backside" of the storm.

BTW I still think this storm will wind up being deeper as it approaches LI then whatever the deepest model is showing.

Thanks Andy. That's the fun watching the unique attributes of each of these monsters. Radar presentations like this normally give me bad vibes. I would normally write off anything that didn't have a back edge from Harrisburg to BGM. Good thing is it's been constantly flurrying all morning so there won't be virga issues

[Wx4cast]

I'm really curious about the snow totals in the catskills. All the models seem to create a heavy pocket of snow smack dab in the middle. G-wave? Deformation zone? Orogaphic enhancement? Not sure what the exact cause is but if this low does track through L.I. anywhere I suspect the models will be right and the Catskills might get a real wallup. 16-20 inches for sure.

Possibly a bit of all? Quite likely DEFZONE and OROE

Thanks Andy. That's the fun watching the unique attributes of each of these monsters. Radar presentations like this normally give me bad vibes. I would normally write off anything that didn't have a back edge from Harrisburg to BGM. Good thing is it's been constantly flurrying all morning so there won't be virga issues

This will be like a wall of snow...few flurries now, a couple of flakes 10mins after the flurris are observed another 5 mins later like Sam the Snowman in the Rudolph the Red-nosed Reinder Christmas show: "Then it struck!"

Also wanted to add in my prior post to you. I see some similarities in this upcoming storm to one we had in March 01. That system too a similar track to what this current one will. During its max deepening phase the snowfall rates for a bout a 4-6 hour period were INSANE 3-4 inches / hour even had some spotters in VT and WMA to tgetting 7". This insane snow spread WNW-NW to the upper HV. Now I'm not saying this will happen with this upcoming storm but what I can envision is something similar. The question is will this heavy snowband make it to us or stay to our E and SE unfortunately I don't think we'll know until perhaps 18-21Z runs (RUC/Hi RESWRF) if we're lucky.

[West Point, NY]

Possibly a bit of all? Quite likely DEFZONE and OROE

This will be like a wall of snow...few flurries now, a couple of flakes 10mins after the flurris are observed another 5 mins later like Sam the Snowman in the Rudolph the Red-nosed Reinder Christmas show: "Then it struck!"

Also wanted to add in my prior post to you. I see some similarities in this upcoming storm to one we had in March 01. That system too a similar track to what this current one will. During its max deepening phase the snowfall rates for a bout a 4-6 hour period were INSANE 3-4 inches / hour even had some spotters in VT and WMA to tgetting 7". This insane snow spread WNW-NW to the upper HV. Now I'm not saying this will happen with this upcoming storm but what I can envision is something similar. The question is will this heavy snowband make it to us or stay to our E and SE unfortunately I don't think we'll know until perhaps 18-21Z runs (RUC/Hi RESWRF) if we're lucky.

GFS has thrown in the towel up here at 12z but I realize that we're in hi-res/ nowcast mode. I just cant envision a storm that dumps 9" in Norfolk being a player up here..........gonna be fun.

[TheRealeDeal]

Vikings/Eagles game has been postponed until Tuesday night.

[Logan11]

HAH postponing a football game because of a little snow? These guys are really weak now...I used to love seeing them paying in 0F wx etc. All these silly domed stadiums now that are named after companies....

Vikings/Eagles game has been postponed until Tuesday night.

[West Point, NY]

HAH postponing a football game because of a little snow? These guys are really weak now...I used to love seeing them paying in 0F wx etc. All these silly domed stadiums now that are named after companies....

Apparently the mayor of Philly wants everyone off the streets by 2pm..................Big gun fight on Broad st. ?

[ENYsnow]

well the hi res models still hit ENY pretty good but show that extremely tight gradient. I'd take either one of these gladly and be happy with my 15" but I still think these models are too far west with the heaviest precip. I hope i'm wrong.

[Revracer800]

Looks like a fairly quiet week for use in Central grrrrr. Minor lake effect Tuesday according to 9wsyr anybody have any info on how much LES will fall? Also how long will the warm up last coming up next weekend?

[West Point, NY]

Hi-Res models + Andy still on board = High Probability......

[Logan11]

The RUC is going ballistic with this thing, wrapping the low to Montauk and pushing the deformation well back into ENY ..even to BGM to almost SYR. At one point all of SNE is dry slotted....

[Syrmax]

Looks like a fairly quiet week for use in Central grrrrr. Minor lake effect Tuesday according to 9wsyr anybody have any info on how much LES will fall? Also how long will the warm up last coming up next weekend?

LES looks short lived and inconsequential, maybe a few inches in the usually favored places. Warmup should be Thurs thru Saturday w/ FROPA Sat nite or early sunday morning. Followed by seasonable conditions. LR ensembles indicating pattern change to a generally positive-tile trough anchored out west with some amount of ridging favored off the SE US coast. Not sure how that will play out for synoptic systems. If it's cold enough for LES at times, flow should be SWerly in the mean...

[West Point, NY]

Real strong NW push now. Should start in Albany shortly

[ENYsnow]

Real strong NW push now. Should start in Albany shortly

Maybe in an hour or so judging by radar? trying not to be too hopefull and wouldn't trust the ruc for a second. we're gonna get a "plowable snow" and leave it at that until we see how far northwest the best banding gets.

[Wx4cast]

The RUC is going ballistic with this thing, wrapping the low to Montauk and pushing the deformation well back into ENY ..even to BGM to almost SYR. At one point all of SNE is dry slotted....

March 2001 storm though this one will have less QPF.

[West Point, NY]

Maybe in an hour or so judging by radar? trying not to be too hopefull and wouldn't trust the ruc for a second. we're gonna get a "plowable snow" and leave it at that until we see how far northwest the best banding gets.

My GrLevel3 radar has the leading edge already into southern Albany county and I doubt there will be any virga at the onset so I think an hour is too long

[Wx4cast]

Hi-Res models + Andy still on board = High Probability......

Very confident my first call from last night will work out very, well. Starting to think that UHV gets into the act...7-8 looking better for us West/Jeff. SREF from 15Z a bit more west on QPF and more west on LP track. Still like UK's precip shield presentation when compared to radar.

The RUC is going ballistic with this thing, wrapping the low to Montauk and pushing the deformation well back into ENY ..even to BGM to almost SYR. At one point all of SNE is dry slotted....

Pretty much I what I thought would and will happen and said so here and in the SNE thread. 10pm-7am tomorrow will be awesome. Whiteouts, local blizzard conditions across elevations AOA 1.5K feet in the Greens, Berkshires, possibly the Hilltowns and high spots in Taconics too.

LES looks short lived and inconsequential, maybe a few inches in the usually favored places. Warmup should be Thurs thru Saturday w/ FROPA Sat nite or early sunday morning. Followed by seasonable conditions. LR ensembles indicating pattern change to a generally positive-tile trough anchored out west with some amount of ridging favored off the SE US coast. Not sure how that will play out for synoptic systems. If it's cold enough for LES at times, flow should be SWerly in the mean...

Come on! Who gives a slice of cheese about LES when we have a synoptic snow to talk about. ;-)

[Revracer800]

Sorry for bringing up the LES question haha but since central ny is bust for the blizzard was just wondering what was up weather wise.

[Syrmax]

Very confident my first call from last night will work out very, well. Starting to think that UHV gets into the act...7-8 looking better for us West/Jeff. SREF from 15Z a bit more west on QPF and more west on LP track. Still like UK's precip shield presentation when compared to radar.

Pretty much I what I thought would and will happen and said so here and in the SNE thread. 10pm-7am tomorrow will be awesome. Whiteouts, local blizzard conditions across elevations AOA 1.5K feet in the Greens, Berkshires, possibly the Hilltowns and high spots in Taconics too.

Come on! Who gives a slice of cheese about LES when we have a synoptic snow to talk about. ;-)

yeah but its fake snow! This costal has been out of play for most of us all along. The interesting thing is to see where the storm disappoints or surprises. My $ is on BGM and SE CT coming up on the low end of current forecasts. Happens every time w/ this sort of storm. Ratios may save BGM but dry air and CSI to the SE are a bigger problem usually.

[Wx4cast]

yeah but its fake snow! This costal has been out of play for most of us all along. The interesting thing is to see where the storm disappoints or surprises. My $ is on BGM and SE CT coming up on the low end of current forecasts. Happens every time w/ this sort of storm. Ratios may save BGM but dry air and CSI to the SE are a bigger problem usually.

Yep, LES is just that. You open your door and the woosh of doing that clears your path. (Apologies in advance from LEK, TG, Delta, etc.)

Coastal low snow well you have to do some work to move and remove it. SE CT will probably mix. Don't know about what is being forecast for there but I'll tell you what, in the Catskills, HV, not too far away from Albany, as well as WNE will get creamed tonight/early Monday AM thanks to CSI.

While the coastal low may be out of play for MOST of you most of YOU also have a LES thread too.

[West Point, NY]

Precip having hard time getting through Albany...............

[Avid6eek]

Radar is looking rather unimpressive at th present time, but it is showing some positive signs south of LI. Overall I haven't gotten to excited over this storm since we are on the very back edge and I'll be happy with 3-6". Anything more than that is just a bonus that may help us get through some of the New Year's warmth.