DeltaT13 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know its the last thing on many of your minds, but as a WNYer....I'm far more concerned about the insane torch later this week into next weekend. 60 degrees on NYE is not out of the question....YUCK. This is going to destroy the local resorts base!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I figured with La Nina we were going to get some of them ..... when the pattern sends troughs into the west. But it does seem to reload the cold after that... Though I haven't looked at 12Z much past this coming week yet so that is based on what I saw at 0Z. I know its the last thing on many of your minds, but as a WNYer....I'm far more concerned about the insane torch later this week into next weekend. 60 degrees on NYE is not out of the question....YUCK. This is going to destroy the local resorts base!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to you and the family Andy.I may be going in myself as the supervisor called and asked "if" we get snow, can I go in and get the repairs done that were left undone because this storm was not going to hit us at all.I am torn between going now just for the extra o/t or waiting to get a better idea to see if it is going to hit,how much ECT(stall in other words LOL!!) I'm going in. No eve newscasts just an 11pm. I'll set the table. GFS is ominous for all of ENY and can't be discounted but it also loves to "over do" QP to the north and nw of lows in the colder air. Love the snow ratios though. CAP and I are thinking close to 15:1 show even an inch of liquid. Banding isuses also huge with this system what type, how many and where all of concern but probably not answerable 'til Sunday 12z/18z runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Andy, THANK YOU for posting here. Being called in to work on a holiday I know is part of your gig, but I'm sure there are other things you could be doing right now I'm hopeful things continue to move NW, just as they last systems did... for once that would work out in our favor Merry Christmas to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z EC is identical to 00z in qpf... at 48 hours the low center is slightly west of 00z however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z EC is identical to 00z in qpf... at 48 hours the low center is slightly west of 00z however Storm being a bit further West is more important than QPF at this point. We want Andy's banding to make it further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Andy, THANK YOU for posting here. Being called in to work on a holiday I know is part of your gig, but I'm sure there are other things you could be doing right now I'm hopeful things continue to move NW, just as they last systems did... for once that would work out in our favor Merry Christmas to all! You're welcome couch...yes I would like to be hitting the egg nog but won't. ;-). I've worked holidays before so its no big deal, even came in on vacation, its part of the gig. Storm being a bit further West is more important than QPF at this point. We want Andy's banding to make it further west. Banding is going to be huge and will also wreak havoc on the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i think you guys are going to get a lot of snow. banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Storm being a bit further West is more important than QPF at this point. We want Andy's banding to make it further west. yeah looking at the suny mm5 you can see some intense banding on the northwest side of this thing. If it bombs out as advertised someone could get a nice suprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For the 3rd straight run the gefs indv member look similar http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf036.html http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf042.html http://raleighwx.ame...rs/12zf048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know its the last thing on many of your minds, but as a WNYer....I'm far more concerned about the insane torch later this week into next weekend. 60 degrees on NYE is not out of the question....YUCK. This is going to destroy the local resorts base!! agreed - been following the longer range pattern and all NWP indicates a major warm-up w/ significant rainfall late next week, prob on weekend. Suspect that most of the eastern seaboard will be bare ground after next weekend. Some of the long range GFS runs have indicated a slow moving heavy rain event with temps well into the 50s for a couple/few days. Hopefully, this won't be a winter where there's 2 weeks of fun and the rest is relatively uneventful, but I could see that playing out, or at least January being a relative dud. We've certainly been in the doldrums for over a week now w/ really no endpoint in sight, excepting the coastal low which is of no consequence out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay after looking at GFS and Hires NAM (12km) data in WINGRIDDS I find both of their QPF a bit odd to me. NAM very dry across ENY actually shafting areas just to the west thru north of Albany while the GFS is too wet perhaps. For now leaning on UK QP output for starters as it appears to be a decent compromise between the 2 models AND it actually looks more reasonable wrt the system's structure as is forecast by all models. EC (to me actually) looks similar to UK in terms of track and superimposing the RH maps on e-wall with UK's QPF maps one gets a pretty good idea on first guess for amounts and orientation of expected snow fall contours. Using "Wx-type" movement analogs from my "shiprouting" days for "maritime" lows I am also thinking this will be more west and towards the coast. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it tracks west of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Okay after looking at GFS and Hires NAM (12km) data in WINGRIDDS I find both of their QPF a bit odd to me. NAM very dry across ENY actually shafting areas just to the west thru north of Albany while the GFS is too wet perhaps. For now leaning on UK QP output for starters as it appears to be a decent compromise between the 2 models AND it actually looks more reasonable wrt the system's structure as is forecast by all models. EC (to me actually) looks similar to UK in terms of track and superimposing the RH maps on e-wall with UK's QPF maps one gets a pretty good idea on first guess for amounts and orientation of expected snow fall contours. Using "Wx-type" movement analogs from my "shiprouting" days for "maritime" lows I am also thinking this will be more west and towards the coast. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it tracks west of the BM. 18z nam has come well west from 12z hits the capital district and points southeast real hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's it show for northeast oneida county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's it show for northeast oneida county? The North Country won't see much more than a few light flurries if that. There is just not enough moisture for anything more than that. I would be surprised if more than a half inch fell by Monday morning...After that, the costal low moves away so fast that the chance for LES is marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's it show for northeast oneida county? around .10 maybe less theres a real sharp cutoff just northwest of albany so even northwest fulton and montgomery counties get under .75" while ALB gets 1.25. Logan11 should like this run as it jackpots right near his house with near 1.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks for the responses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z nam has come well west from 12z hits the capital district and points southeast real hard. GEFS 12z mean looks to be west of the BM too. The plot thickens. The North Country won't see much more than a few light flurries if that. There is just not enough moisture for anything more than that. I would be surprised if more than a half inch fell by Monday morning...After that, the costal low moves away so fast that the chance for LES is marginal at best. You just couldn't stay away from the weather for a day! ;-) Well I should talk..heading in to work now. Hope the 11pm isn't too late in going on as ABC is running a NBA triple-header today. Merry Christmas EVERYONE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The North Country won't see much more than a few light flurries if that. There is just not enough moisture for anything more than that. I would be surprised if more than a half inch fell by Monday morning...After that, the costal low moves away so fast that the chance for LES is marginal at best. Depends where you define as North Country. Southern Dacks around GFL and the lower part of Lk. George look to do well to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 apparently the 18z nam had initialization errors lol figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GEFS 12z mean looks to be west of the BM too. The plot thickens. You just couldn't stay away from the weather for a day! ;-) Well I should talk..heading in to work now. Hope the 11pm isn't too late in going on as ABC is running a NBA triple-header today. Merry Christmas EVERYONE! Likewise Andy, and good luck with the forecast and the feets of snow in your viewing area!!! Merry Christmas to all.....may Jan. provide us all insane snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Depends where you define as North Country. Southern Dacks around GFL and the lower part of Lk. George look to do well to me you're right...I should have been more exact...I was referring to spots west of Hamilton County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GEFS 12z mean looks to be west of the BM too. The plot thickens. You just couldn't stay away from the weather for a day! ;-) Well I should talk..heading in to work now. Hope the 11pm isn't too late in going on as ABC is running a NBA triple-header today. Merry Christmas EVERYONE! I know....But what can I say, when you're addicted your addicted ...Anyway enjoy the snow. Merry Christmas to you and everyone on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so your saying there's a chance HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ038&warncounty=NYC043&firewxzone=NYZ038&local_place1=Herkimer+NY&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I gotta ask another dumb question. I went out got some work done,came home put the plow on the truck, came in turned the heat in the garage on to get some last minute work done on some other vehicles, and I noticed the ALB NWS pulled the HWO highlight down for our area...did it change again away from us??? I am tired of putting this plow on my truck to take it off again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I gotta ask another dumb question. I went out got some work done,came home put the plow on the truck, came in turned the heat in the garage on to get some last minute work done on some other vehicles, and I noticed the ALB NWS pulled the HWO highlight down for our area...did it change again away from us??? I am tired of putting this plow on my truck to take it off again... Not sure....I haven't checked, but the new 18z GFS ensemble means throw much more qpf back toward CNY....around .4 or .5 to SYR....and progressively more to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not sure....I haven't checked, but the new 18z GFS ensemble means throw much more qpf back toward CNY....around .4 or .5 to SYR....and progressively more to the east. the GFS ensembles are really bullish on a decent snow all the way back into central ny. i guess we wont know until 00z tonight. If the canadian models come west thats a good sign because they seem to be the eastern outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You ENY'ers deserve this!!!! :thumbsup: .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --...MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...EXPECTATIONS WERE FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK EAST TO LIMIT ITS IMPACT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO CONCERNS OF MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODEL PERFORMANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WERE LESS THAN IDEAL. TO BE SURE...THERE WILL BE SOME RESEARCH AND CASE EXERCISES IN THE FUTURE ON THIS EVENT. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF YESTERDAYS 18Z DATA /INCLUDING THE 12Z 12/24 GFS THAT WAS THE MOST WEST SOLUTION/...THE TRENDS WERE WEST. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM AIRCRAFT COMPLETING DROPSONDES ACROSS THE GULF LAST NIGHT...NOW SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM WITH ITS IMPACTS BEING FELT ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. THE GUIDANCE TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHRINK WITH METEOROLOGICAL BOMB EVOLVING JUST EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WITHIN THE BENCHMARK AND PREVIOUS CSTAR RESEARCH OF MESOSCALE EFFECTS SUPPORT A RATHER IMPRESSIVE 2D-FGEN FIELD TO BE ACROSS OR EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IN ADDITION...WITH THE EXPLOSIVE NATURE OF THIS STORM...GRAVITY WAVE PROPAGATION COULD ALSO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES /PER THE DUCT FUNCTION...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION/. AS THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET COMES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SNOW WILL REACH THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY SUNSET SUNDAY. SNOW SHOULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE BANDS COMING INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. THE COMMA HEAD SHOULD WRAP BACK ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH DEFORMATION AXIS FURTHER ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES. FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN DACKS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LITTLE PRECIP AS EXPECTATIONS ARE THEIR WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD. IN THESE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEMS...PRECIP SHIELDS TEND TO CONTRACT IN WHICH COULD BE THE CASE SUNDAY-MONDAY. THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 50-60KTS AT AND ABOVE 925MBS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. MIXING POTENTIAL PER BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WE TAP TO NEAR 40KTS. SO THE POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE WSW. THE STORM BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW SHOULD PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LAST PIECE OF JET ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL CANADA TO TAKE THIS STORM RATHER QUICKLY OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A RATHER QUICK ENDING OF THE SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY. AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS THE COMBINATION OF MESOSCALE EFFECTS AND LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL HUGE IMPLICATIONS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE FOR AROUND 1 FOOT OF SNOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...12 TO 18 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH 7 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS OF AROUND 15:1. AGAIN...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE TRACK AND THOSE MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS TO SNOW AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I gotta ask another dumb question. I went out got some work done,came home put the plow on the truck, came in turned the heat in the garage on to get some last minute work done on some other vehicles, and I noticed the ALB NWS pulled the HWO highlight down for our area...did it change again away from us??? I am tired of putting this plow on my truck to take it off again... You will have enough to plow................Still a good possibility of warning criteria accumulation. One thing it looks like we have going for us is the -8 isotherm will be in our neck of the woods (a la the 18z GFS) which can lead to really enhanced amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OK, so the last 3 sets of GFS ensembles have had considerably more qpf back down (westward) the MHV. That's a signal in the model that some trough feature MAY establish itself (and they typically do during our near "misses"). Coupled with higher ratios, I could see places west of the capital region (as far as the Utica/Rome area) to out perform others, with lower ratios near the coast (in terms of snow accumulation)....IF those ensemble members are indeed hinting at that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.