CNYWxGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here is the 0z GFS Operational QPF zoomed in... 0z GFS Operational QPF H6-78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z EC actually trended toward GFS Looks like a slightly sharper precip cutoff than the GFS though with ALB around .4 to .5 and much less northwest. POU gets hit real hard.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z EC actually trended toward GFS Looks like a slightly sharper precip cutoff than the GFS though with ALB around .4 to .5 and much less northwest. POU gets hit real hard.. 00z Euro QPF courtesy of member Tombo82685... yellow 2-2.5 pinkis purple 1.75-2 dark purple 1.5-1.75 purple 1.25-1.5 lgt pink 1-1.25 turqouise .75-1 lgt blue .5-.75 green .25-.5 lgt green .25 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ECM is not as bad a i thought, 1/4-1/2" here..Not to far east goes over 1/2"..Looks pretty close to the GEFS, maybe a little less wet,, 10 indv members bring precip into CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF looking better definitely looks improved from 21z for us. if we wanna get into the real significant snow we need this thing to nudge west and north, lets see if the 06z nam can come west from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6z gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6z gfs qpf Zoomed in, here is the total / 24-Hour QPF from H36-60 across Upstate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks logan, much better view...Looks close to the0z GEFS QPF.. Kbgm AFTER ANALYZING VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITESINCLUDING SREF/GEFS AND CIPS ANALOGS...WE DO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE MODEL BIASES OF NOT PULLING ENOUGH FORCING AND THUS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE WEST IN THESE STRONG COASTAL STORM EVENTS. http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6z gefs indv members, every 1 is a hit.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WRF model is showing some type of LES band just to the north of buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Would be a great Christmas present for ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Any chance this thing keeps coming west? Unbelievable changes over the past 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Would be a great Christmas present for ENY Real sharp cutoff in herkimer county, just glad im on the good side 4 now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Real sharp cutoff in herkimer county, just glad im on the good side 4 now lol The trend is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Would be a great Christmas present for ENY I had completly given up hope for this storm, but I guess I am getting sucked back in now. The NWS isn't sold yet (and I haven't seen any mets analysis here recently) so I'm not fully in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! This storm is why you wait on watch data before writing things off. If it bombs a la EC it COULD even pull another 50 miles or so to the NW and coast). Banding potential is unbelievably incredible for this system. Wouldn't be surprised if a gravity wave also formed during the time of bombogenesis.. For me vacation cancel work calls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Andy I hope work did not call just for this storm on Chrismas(ESP on vacation).Merry Christmas and I hope the storm is at least good for all of NY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! This storm is why you wait on watch data before writing things off. If it bombs a la EC it COULD even pull another 50 miles or so to the NW and coast). Banding potential is unbelievably incredible for this system. Wouldn't be surprised if a gravity wave also formed during the time of bombogenesis.. For me vacation cancel work calls.... Merry Christmas Andy............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 given the trends, i wouldnt be surprised if the best snows in this system fall N and W of boston. i think eastern NY is under the gun, but moreso than i mentioned yesterday. the interesting development on the first 12z model, the NAM..... was the earlier involvement of the energy in northern quebec, acting to pull the 500mb low further N and W at hr 48. correct me if im wrong, but i think that would be a true triple phase! lets see if the other models follow. Merrry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Andy I hope work did not call just for this storm on Chrismas(ESP on vacation).Merry Christmas and I hope the storm is at least good for all of NY!! Its happened before and it will again I'm sure. As of now I'm on standby for later today. I may get to "set the table" on this puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Morning update from BGM... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1006 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... UPDATED AS OF 10 AM...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PIKE COUNTY PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY FROM SUN PM TO MON PM. MAIN CONCERN HERE IS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL SOLTNS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FOR THE PARTS OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. THE 06Z GFS/00Z GFS ENSEMBLE/00Z EURO AND EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z UKMET/NCEPS EXPERIMENTAL FIM MODEL AND THE 03Z SREF ALL SHOW A LOW TRACK CLOSE ENUF TO THE NJ COAST TO BRING WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS TO PIKE AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY FARTHER W ACRS MORE OF NE PA AND SC NY. THE MOST WESTWARD SOLTN IS THE 06Z GFS ATTM WHICH WUD CRUSH NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS AND BRING WRNG CRITERIA SNOWS TO SC NY AS FAR W AS BGM/UCA AND TOWANDA. THIS SOLTN DOES SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIER SO DID NOT ISSUE WATCHES THAT FAR W. THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP THE LO FAR ENUF TO THE EAST TO PRECLUDE ANY SIG SNOWS FOR THE BGM CWA IS THE NAM...GGEM/GGEM ENSEMBLES AND THE NAVY NOGAPS. LOOKING AT THE DERIVED FIELDS FROM THE VARIOUS SOLTNS...IT COMES DOWN TO HOW QUICKLY CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AS THE LO TRACKS FROM THE NC COAST NORTHWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE CYCLOGENESIS IS A HIGHLY NON-LINEAR PROCESS THE MODELS WILL STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SPECIFIC MASS FIELDS AND ASSCTD QPF. THE GFS BOMBS THE LOW OUT VERY QUICKLY AND HENCE TRACKS IT FARTHER W. THE FIM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS WHICH IS INTERESTING BECAUSE THE FIM USES THE GFS PHYSICS PACKAGE AND INITIALIZATION. THIS IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH ONE FOLKS SINCE IT COMES DOWN TO MODEL PHYSICS AND PARAMETERIZATIONS. WHICH PHYSICS PACKAGE HAS THE BEST HANDLE? ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY AT THIS POINT. BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS TO GO WITH CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND HENCE THIS PUTS THE FAR SE PART OF THE BGM CWA IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE BASED ON 12-1 SNOW:LIQUID RATIO AND QPF FIELDS. ADVY SNOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SCRANTON/WILKE BARRE AREAS TO DELAWARE COUNTY NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Bring on the 12zed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z gfs precip, looks like i just squeek out about 1/2" of liquid..Just 30-50miles west please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to you and the family Andy.I may be going in myself as the supervisor called and asked "if" we get snow, can I go in and get the repairs done that were left undone because this storm was not going to hit us at all.I am torn between going now just for the extra o/t or waiting to get a better idea to see if it is going to hit,how much ECT(stall in other words LOL!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its amazing how much confidence is still lacking in this forecast.. it would be really nice for the 12z EC to hold serve or come west a little more. If it goes east that would really suck considering we're already on the fringe. I wouldn't be confident in throwing out amounts until at least after 00z tonight LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 12Z GFS was just a shade later in bombing and capturing the low...thereby it knocked the heaviest about 50 miles east in areas from DC up to around AVP. It didn't 't make much difference in NY State N/E of BGM because it wrapped back in under LI by then. I still see some models that let it escape a bit more east before capture such as NAM (although it has trended west from 6Z) and RGEM (only about .45" to ALB). SO we have to see if the GFS is slightly too amped and be cautious I'd say about areas from ALB north and west getting into the best snows. If I was doing a " forecast now I'd go 6-10" immediately n/w of ALB such as Cobleskill to Schenectady, Amsterdam, Saratoga. 4-6" from Central MV to GFL. 10-15" from ALB down to Hudson and northern Catskills. Then 15"+ southern Catskills across to Berkshires. But of course I don't forecast so its all for fun. If the best banding gets to this area then all bets are off on some snowfall maxes ... 12z gfs precip, looks like i just squeek out about 1/2" of liquid..Just 30-50miles west please.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well we are looking at 15-1 ratios I think so if the more conservative .5" of qpf verifies in ALB that is 7.5". So barring some last minute models busts I think its a significant snowfall anyway. Its amazing how much confidence is still lacking in this forecast.. it would be really nice for the 12z EC to hold serve or come west a little more. If it goes east that would really suck considering we're already on the fringe. I wouldn't be confident in throwing out amounts until at least after 00z tonight LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well we are looking at 15-1 ratios I think so if the more conservative .5" of qpf verifies in ALB that is 7.5". So barring some last minute models busts I think its a significant snowfall anyway. Yeah and most likely ALY will be very conservative considering the GGEM, NAM and possibly the euro are still east of the GFS. I would be thrilled with 6" right now though thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 ALY just extended winter storm watches ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAYMORNING.* LOCATIONS: SCHOHARIE COUNTY...CAPITAL REGION OF NEW YORK...RENSSELAER COUNTY AND ALL OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.* HAZARDS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...AND GUSTY WINDS.* ACCUMULATIONS: 7 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS: HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON ROADS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING TREACHEROUS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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