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Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

Couchsachraga

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Stash

Stash

Posted
Posted

Not that this is the least bit scientific, but with many storms that are near misses for us in ENY, we usually at least get at least one NAM run (even if its a rogue 18z off-hour run) which shows a more wound up storm/ decent hit for us...with even the NAM not being able to give us false hope, I haven't paid much attention yet. Winter's still young however, we'll get one up this way. Decent shift west with this morning's 12z NAM, so ENE may get something decent out of this yet.

Edit: 12z NAM seems to have a rather broad area of lighter snows even back this way.

A definite shift west for the GFS at 00z .. just enough to tease ALB and leave us dry once again so i'd say this looks about right.

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WNYLakeEffect

WNYLakeEffect

Posted
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It looks to be a mess New Years weekend. Not great for travelling! GFS has been incredibly consistent for the past week with regard to some kind of storm that weekend!

And both the Euro and GFS are bringing in varying degrees of cold air afterward. 0z GFS's track (up to James Bay) would have any lake effect at least start in Buffalo and possibly stay there. The Euro's different, though.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

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The earlier runs of the NAM, GEM, GFS, and Euro had this going out to sea. But you're right, The 00z GFS shows it a little more to the west. which brings 5-12 inches for areas on the coast. we will see what the EURO has to say about this trend. My model of choice 48-24 hours out is the NAM. So, I will wait until tomorrows models run before I know where this thing will most likely go. The models did show me something I liked, The blocking in Canada looks to break down during the first week of Jan with a possible block setting up closer to Greenland...If we want storms in the Northeast this is a very good thing.

yes i agree, i think this storm this wekeend is flushing the pattern and once we get past the huge cutter next week, it should reestablish a new pattern.... looks likely we will transition into a more favorable only slightly negative NAO regime which with a mod nina is a good thing in these parts. we want at least some neg AO, just not the extreme we have been getting.....of course the lake effect folks have made out fine.

but i think we are about to see a break AT LAST in the pattern.....fingers crossed for those wanting to see some synoptic action.

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CNYWeather

CNYWeather

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Posted

I have crazy question.When is the last time a storm was written off by a majority of people(models,mets,amateur forecasters) and it came back to bite them?? Sort of how West Mtn says not to be so quick to write it off---yet.. Just curious is all.

That was happened in I think 2002 on Christmas Day? Something like 3-6" here and we got over 2 feet.

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ENYsnow

ENYsnow

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Posted

GFS is much farther west but NAM is still east of the BM. Looking at UKie now.....

SREFS are nudging a bit west too but as far as this product is concerned we are still not in its "wheelhouse" time frame.

If the EC comes in like the GFS then we may have something otherwise the GFS is probably just teasing us with its init errors lol

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Logan11

Logan11

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Posted

GFS ensembles went way west.... People on the SNE thread are saying there could have been some initialization error in the Dakotas area, but that shouldn't have such an affect on the ensembles I didn't think.

GFS is much farther west but NAM is still east of the BM. Looking at UKie now.....

SREFS are nudging a bit west too but as far as this product is concerned we are still not in its "wheelhouse" time frame.

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Logan11

Logan11

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Posted

Well we are still in the 60-84 hour time frame. Such a shift could still occur. If we were inside 48 hours the models tend to have a pretty good clue. Although there are always crazy examples.

I have crazy question.When is the last time a storm was written off by a majority of people(models,mets,amateur forecasters) and it came back to bite them?? Sort of how West Mtn says not to be so quick to write it off---yet.. Just curious is all.

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West Point, NY

West Point, NY

Posted
Posted
<br />GFS is much farther west but NAM is still east of the BM. Looking at UKie now.....<br /><br />SREFS are nudging a bit west too but as far as this product is concerned we are still not in its &quot;wheelhouse&quot; time frame.<br />
Seems like todays theme is more energy diving in on the northern branch and a slight, albeit important sharpening of the trof. A promising trend at this time frame. Even better, lets discount all the American and European models and run with the JMA
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wolfie09

wolfie09

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Posted

GFS ensembles went way west.... People on the SNE thread are saying there could have been some initialization error in the Dakotas area, but that shouldn't have such an affect on the ensembles I didn't think.

Albany thinks so

THROUGH EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND

HPC...THE 12Z GFS WAS DISCOUNTED. THE MODEL DID NOT INITIALIZE

WELL WITH ERRORS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER NE AND NORTH CENTRAL

CANADA. ERRORS APPEAR TO BE LESS WITH THE 12Z

NAM/GGEM/ECMWF/UKMET. THE GFS AMPLIFIES THESE ERRORS...ALONG WITH

WHAT SEEMS TO BE INCREASED CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...FOR RAPID

DEEPENING OF THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS SUN-MON AND VERY CLOSE

TO THE SHORELINE /IN OTHER WORDS...A MAJOR STORM FOR THE FORECAST

AREA/. THIS TOO APPEARS TO HAVE IMPACTED ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

WITH ASSOCIATED PERTURBATIONS OFF THESE ERRORS

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

It would affect the ensembles.

Still while there is hope the way to go on this storm is to keep continuity with the model ensemble mean(s). EC ensembles are hires GFS' aren't.

00z/12z runs will tell the tale tonight, ep the 12z runs. Tornado Girl can't wait for the 12z NAM tomorrow she says that that is the run that will tell a lot.

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FEFD17

FEFD17

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Posted

I moved my snowplow just so I could have an easier time hooking it up and disconnecting it. I got it out and serviced it so it would be ready rather than need it and have it need something. My next door neighbor comes out his door, and after our Christmas greeting he says to put the plow away he just watched a "local" tv station forecast,and the met says this storm is out to sea and it's a wide miss for us and it will be staying in Cape Cod,New Jersey.I was surprised this far out and with any shifting still going on that it was already called a miss.I am just watching stuff and if it misses it misses but wow it just seems premature to broadcast that.

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West Point, NY

West Point, NY

Posted
Posted

The thing that sucks about this storm is even if the 18z GFS/NAM verify with the closer to the coast tracks, the low looks like it gets captured just far enough South that warning criteria snows don't make it North or West of Albany. Still time to adjust further North (or South, East & West) though.....................

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Logan11

Logan11

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Posted

Taken verbatim the GFS is a major snowstorm just about up to the ALB (tri-cities) area and especially the HV and Catskills. Very sharp drop off northwest of there to a few inches from the central MV to Lake George or so.

I have my doubts it gets much further north because the low stacks and has to begin to bend (or jumps to triple point) to the ENE. I suppose we could edge it just a bit more north, or it could slip a bit south and leave ALB with the few inches.

I understand the UKMET has trended way west - but haven't seen the maps. RGEM certainly went way west.

Are you serious?? That would be a huge turn of events from the previous thinking.....I admit to being very very hesitant with the current pattern and only one model( so far) but I am least feeling much more optimistic!!

MERRY CHRISTMAS !!!!!! To EVERYONE!!!!

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CNYWxGuy

CNYWxGuy

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Posted

Taken verbatim the GFS is a major snowstorm just about up to the ALB (tri-cities) area and especially the HV and Catskills. Very sharp drop off northwest of there to a few inches from the central MV to Lake George or so.

I have my doubts it gets much further north because the low stacks and has to begin to bend (or jumps to triple point) to the ENE. I suppose we could edge it just a bit more north, or it could slip a bit south and leave ALB with the few inches.

I understand the UKMET has trended way west - but haven't seen the maps. RGEM certainly went way west.

0z GEFS Mean is very close to 12 / 18z runs...

00zgfsensemblep72072.gif

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West Point, NY

West Point, NY

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Posted

Crossing my fingers for a decent 4-6" (would love more but I will take what I can get and be happy) for the Glens Falls area!!

If the precip on that map just above verifies, you will be plowing a 4-8" amount (more the further SE you go). While its still a big if, it is not nearly as big as it was 12 hrs. ago. And while I agree with Rick (Logan) that it will bend after a point after capture, it's been such a dramatic shift that it is not such a long shot for it to squeeze another 25-50 miles north or NW from tonights scenarios. :snowman:
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