Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[ENYsnow]

The models have been all over the place.I am happy to read all the excitement,but I am concerned about the hesitation (models) of bringing it to this area.That said,I am looking at what the others(Wx4cast,Tornado girl,Logan11,ect) are posting.

If the enthusiasm starts climbing then I will start taking notice.If anything I have read everything(NOT in this forum but other wishcasters) from this storm is fish food to get your books and pen's cause it's going to be epic...

It takes a way different approach and skill to forecast for this area.We almost seem to have our own little world of weather in this geographical area and nobody I know of can come close to Andy.If he say's it,bank on it.If you ask,he will at least listen and try to explain it.I know of two other "local" stations that I will not watch their weather.

Its nice to see the EC and GGEM showing a significant storm for this area. Also the NAM at 84 hours agreed with the EC regarding the position of the southern shortwave over texas so thats a plus. I wouldn't get too hopeful yet seeing as the GFS and UKIE either dont dig the trough nearly as much or do it too late and take this thing too far east for everyone in upstate ny. Like Andy said we need that ridge axis further west than the GFS/UK have it and we also need a quicker northern stream phase so the system can turn the corner. When Andy starts to really buy into it thats when we can get a little more excited

[ayuud]

buffalo gets between 0.50-0.60 inches liquid approx

and that equates to how many inches?

[NorEaster27]

buffalo gets between 0.50-0.60 inches liquid approx

ENY / SE Dacks, 1 inch +?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

12z euro has ottawa in line for 8-14 inches and strong NE winds.

it is a monster storm reminiscent of 93, but not there yet.......and im not saying it will either

Thanks OL. i was obviously reading the model wrong - or looking at the wrong one. Ironically, I'll be in Toronto next week! It would be great to come back to a fresh snowpack though.

[Organizing Low]

and that equates to how many inches?

5-9 approx depedning on ratios

[Organizing Low]

ENY / SE Dacks, 1 inch +?

sharp gradient in that region, anywhere from 0.75 to as much as 1.75 on the new england border.

[Organizing Low]

Thanks OL. i was obviously reading the model wrong - or looking at the wrong one. Ironically, I'll be in Toronto next week! It would be great to come back to a fresh snowpack though.

no problem OB

hopefully this works out, but certainly nothing to even begin considering at this range....maybe in a few days if its still there.

[ayuud]

5-9 approx depedning on ratios

not bad

[snowstormcanuck]

Wow, 0.5-0.6" all the way back to BUF?

OL, does it spit out anything for YYZ?

[Organizing Low]

Wow, 0.5-0.6" all the way back to BUF?

OL, does it spit out anything for YYZ?

0.1-0.25 for toronto

0.25 line about through oshawa

0.50 line from cobourg to just west of buffalo

0.75 line near belleville to west of KROC.

ottawa 1 inch.

[Wx4cast]

Its nice to see the EC and GGEM showing a significant storm for this area. Also the NAM at 84 hours agreed with the EC regarding the position of the southern shortwave over texas so thats a plus. I wouldn't get too hopeful yet seeing as the GFS and UKIE either dont dig the trough nearly as much or do it too late and take this thing too far east for everyone in upstate ny. Like Andy said we need that ridge axis further west than the GFS/UK have it and we also need a quicker northern stream phase so the system can turn the corner. When Andy starts to really buy into it thats when we can get a little more excited

Considering the time range I am still cautious about the GGEM and Ec. Keep in mind the EC had a run maybe 2 with last weeks storm only to push it seaward. It has the ridge out west but I would say its borderline favorable, IIRC the EC has some issues with ridges over the Western US and West coast

sharp gradient in that region, anywhere from 0.75 to as much as 1.75 on the new england border.

EC verbatim poses sleet threat for WNE and SENY or sleet/snow mix especially if the low tracks closer to BID/MVY. Could be very good especially for areas west and just north of Albany. Again this is taking the EC verbatim (GGEM, too)

========

A quick perusal of 12z GEFS ensembles are much less dire than ANY of the OP models including the GFS Again I would like to see some (more than I am now) ensemble members shift west in time along with ensemble means. I'm waiting on the ECEM 12z prog.

Another note regarding my post on the SD anomalies comparing to 00z to 06z data the latter ensemble set indicate NO ANAMLOUS easterly winds at 250 hPA nor any anamoulus NE winds at 850. In order to get a long duration historic storm you need to have these anomalies at -2 or lower. My personal experience with these anomalies is that you'll start to see them develop within 5 days. So there is still time

For now it is something to watch for sure but I can't get too excited about it just yet. This is also what I and my colleagues at the station are going with. Perhaps tomorrow we may start to see some trends in both OPS and ensemble data sets but it wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a definitive idea until the 23rd.

[Wx4cast]

Its nice to see the EC and GGEM showing a significant storm for this area. Also the NAM at 84 hours agreed with the EC regarding the position of the southern shortwave over texas so thats a plus. I wouldn't get too hopeful yet seeing as the GFS and UKIE either dont dig the trough nearly as much or do it too late and take this thing too far east for everyone in upstate ny. Like Andy said we need that ridge axis further west than the GFS/UK have it and we also need a quicker northern stream phase so the system can turn the corner. When Andy starts to really buy into it thats when we can get a little more excited

Thanks!

I'm excited over the dilemma this poses but not too excited on the event - yet.

[Organizing Low]

Considering the time range I am still cautious about the GGEM and Ec. Keep in mind the EC had a run maybe 2 with last weeks storm only to push it seaward. It has the ridge out west but I would say its borderline favorable, IIRC the EC has some issues with ridges over the Western US and West coast

EC verbatim poses sleet threat for WNE and SENY or sleet/snow mix especially if the low tracks closer to BID/MVY. Could be very good especially for areas west and just north of Albany. Again this is taking the EC verbatim (GGEM, too)

========

A quick perusal of 12z GEFS ensembles are much less dire than ANY of the OP models including the GFS Again I would like to see some (more than I am now) ensemble members shift west in time along with ensemble means. I'm waiting on the ECEM 12z prog.

Another note regarding my post on the SD anomalies comparing to 00z to 06z data the latter ensemble set indicate NO ANAMLOUS easterly winds at 250 hPA nor any anamoulus NE winds at 850. In order to get a long duration historic storm you need to have these anomalies at -2 or lower. My personal experience with these anomalies is that you'll start to see them develop within 5 days. So there is still time

For now it is something to watch for sure but I can't get too excited about it just yet. This is also what I and my colleagues at the station are going with. Perhaps tomorrow we may start to see some trends in both OPS and ensemble data sets but it wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a definitive idea until the 23rd.

great post Andy

thanks for the info

keep us posted

[Wx4cast]

Note on the 12z runs of the GFS and GGEM the PV that slides/(or tries to per the GGEM) SSW'ward toward L. Superior.

The GFS has this barrelling on in and messing up any potential ridging, as the height field would have to accomodate such a feature dropping south, thus not allowing for a "fanned" ridge look to evolve. The GGEM, OTOH, doesn't even allow the PV into N. Canada, until much later (and does so, not into our area of concern, but another smaller trough to the east....This allows ample room for an explosion of the height field, NE of our system. This is OUR biggest key to getting this system further west at higher latitudes.

Oddly enough, the 00Z 21 UK with its offshore solution did have heights during the 72-144 hour period building SOUTH of Newfoundland. As a matter of fact the isallohyptic rise center was nearly station during the 96-144 hour period south of "Newfy-land".

[Wx4cast]

The models have been all over the place.I am happy to read all the excitement,but I am concerned about the hesitation (models) of bringing it to this area.That said,I am looking at what the others(Wx4cast,Tornado girl,Logan11,ect) are posting.

If the enthusiasm starts climbing then I will start taking notice.If anything I have read everything(NOT in this forum but other wishcasters) from this storm is fish food to get your books and pen's cause it's going to be epic...

It takes a way different approach and skill to forecast for this area.We almost seem to have our own little world of weather in this geographical area and nobody I know of can come close to Andy.If he say's it,bank on it.If you ask,he will at least listen and try to explain it.I know of two other "local" stations that I will not watch their weather.

Wow! Nothing like putting a lot of pressure on me!

Thank you for the compliment, too.

I'll have the check in the mail within the hour!

[snowstormcanuck]

0.1-0.25 for toronto

0.25 line about through oshawa

0.50 line from cobourg to just west of buffalo

0.75 line near belleville to west of KROC.

ottawa 1 inch.

Wow, that's a massive western extent. I mean, we had 4-6" with the February 26th, 2010 storm, but that came inland and rode the Hudson Valley a bit. To have >0.10" with a storm progged to track at or east of Long Island is almost unprecedented.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

0.1-0.25 for toronto

0.25 line about through oshawa

0.50 line from cobourg to just west of buffalo

0.75 line near belleville to west of KROC.

ottawa 1 inch.

What would accumulation be like in Toronto if this were to verify?

[Logan11]

In the meantime, we could use an inch or two of snow between now and Christmas to freshen up the slowly sublimating 2 inches (3 in woods) that remains here. I wonder if tomorrow could bring any decent snow showers. Maybe some combo of the offshore system/inverted trough and some LES activity and throw in some seeder feeder mechanisms (which I don't understand that well really)... Essentially boredom for us from now through Christmas......

[Logan11]

Yeah it is massive on the ECMWF. I was saying in the SNE thread that the deformation seems to push back to at least Pembroke in the Upper Ottawa Valley.

Wow, that's a massive western extent. I mean, we had 4-6" with the February 26th, 2010 storm, but that came inland and rode the Hudson Valley a bit. To have >0.10" with a storm progged to track at or east of Long Island is almost unprecedented.

[snowstormcanuck]

What would accumulation be like in Toronto if this were to verify?

2-5cm roughly. Have a hard time believing it though unless this thing hugs the coast/comes inland.

[Andyace]

Ya snow is pretty much evaporating here.

In the meantime, we could use an inch or two of snow between now and Christmas to freshen up the slowly sublimating 2 inches (3 in woods) that remains here. I wonder if tomorrow could bring any decent snow showers. Maybe some combo of the offshore system/inverted trough and some LES activity and throw in some seeder feeder mechanisms (which I don't understand that well really)... Essentially boredom for us from now through Christmas......

[snowstormcanuck]

Yeah it is massive on the ECMWF. I was saying in the SNE thread that the deformation seems to push back to at least Pembroke in the Upper Ottawa Valley.

Well, it's unlikely in my books, but I hope it verifies. I'd rather have the scraps than nothing at all.

[Wx4cast]

great post Andy

thanks for the info

keep us posted

You're welcome OL.

Here's some links to papers and or Powerpoint presentations about using Anomalies in forecasting ECUS Winter Storms:

Using Wind Anomalies to Forecast East Coast Winter Storms

Evaluating significant East Coast Winter Storms (ppt)

Using Anomaly Data

[Organizing Low]

Wow, that's a massive western extent. I mean, we had 4-6" with the February 26th, 2010 storm, but that came inland and rode the Hudson Valley a bit. To have >0.10" with a storm progged to track at or east of Long Island is almost unprecedented.

did toronto get anything in 93?

the difference here it looks to me is that the storm seems to occlude south of long island and the precip appears to explode outwards, very far to the west and north. seems unlikely, but nice to look at for sure.

93 was absolutely booking. came in around 5pm. storm was in and out so fast around here at least....still 49cm (19 inches) i recorded just south of ottawa in 14 hours. woke up a bright blue sky the next morning.

the incredible part was we were literally 'fringed' honestly, i remember we barely barely made it into the precip, as very little snow fell NW of ottawa either you were blitzed or practically nothing.......due to the immense dry arctic air pouring in behind the storm......only a Superstorm could have overcome, once you were in its bands of snow it was but i was so worried

for that reason, whenever i see 960 lows on the map, all bets are off and i get excited.......now if only we could get another one to happen in our neck of the woods

PS ive always wondered how others in upstate experienced that storm....

[FEFD17]

Wow! Nothing like putting a lot of pressure on me!

Thank you for the compliment, too.

I'll have the check in the mail within the hour!

You need the pressure!!!!! It keeps you sharp!!!

You have earned that compliment long ago friend!.

No check please,just refill my growler with some Daker from Davidson Bros!!!!!LOL

[FEFD17]

did toronto get anything in 93?

the difference here it looks to me is that the storm seems to occlude south of long island and the precip appears to explode outwards, very far to the west and north. seems unlikely, but nice to look at for sure.

93 was absolutely booking. came in around 5pm. storm was in and out so fast around here at least....still 49cm (19 inches) i recorded just south of ottawa in 14 hours. woke up a bright blue sky the next morning.

the incredible part was we were literally 'fringed' honestly, i remember we barely barely made it into the precip, as very little snow fell NW of ottawa either you were blitzed or practically nothing.......due to the immense dry arctic air pouring in behind the storm......only a Superstorm could have overcome, once you were in its bands of snow it was but i was so worried

for that reason, whenever i see 960 lows on the map, all bets are off and i get excited.......now if only we could another one to happen

PS ive always wondered how others in upstate experienced that storm....

I do not remember that storm......I was just married to my first wife that year and I have since tried to forget the whole damn thing!!!!LOL!!!

[LakeEffectKing]

I bet a lot of the Euro's precip out west (Roc/Buf) is L. Ontario driven....with a circ. this large, and ample moisture, cold, and synoptic snow, we could have some surprisingly high numbers coming out of the N. Finger lakes area....IF Euro verified as depicted.

I'm with Andy on this......give me this solution (or better.....lol!) in 2 days, with a few more guidance members joining the party, then honk til the cows tunnel home!!!

[snowstormcanuck]

did toronto get anything in 93?

the difference here it looks to me is that the storm seems to occlude south of long island and the precip appears to explode outwards, very far to the west and north. seems unlikely, but nice to look at for sure.

93 was absolutely booking. came in around 5pm. storm was in and out so fast around here at least....still 49cm (19 inches) i recorded just south of ottawa in 14 hours. woke up a bright blue sky the next morning.

the incredible part was we were literally 'fringed' honestly, i remember we barely barely made it into the precip, as very little snow fell NW of ottawa either you were blitzed or practically nothing.......due to the immense dry arctic air pouring in behind the storm......only a Superstorm could have overcome, once you were in its bands of snow it was but i was so worried

for that reason, whenever i see 960 lows on the map, all bets are off and i get excited.......now if only we could get another one to happen in our neck of the woods

PS ive always wondered how others in upstate experienced that storm....

I was too young to remember 93, but according to Toronto4 there was 7-8cm (3"), most of that coming from east wind lake effect out ahead of the storm. The synoptic mostly missed us apparently.

[Organizing Low]

I do not remember that storm......I was just married to my first wife that year and I have since tried to forget the whole damn thing!!!!LOL!!!

:lol:

[wolfie09]

Kalb

THERE CONTINUES TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z

ECMWF...CANADIAN GGEM...AND HPC VERSUS THE 12Z GFS AND GEFS. THE

INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE FAVORS MAJOR CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE

CAROLINA COASTLINE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS A

SUB-975 HPA LOW NEAR ERN NJ BY 12Z/MON.../THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 964

HPA SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY 18Z MON/. THE ECMWF SCENARIO WITH THE

H500 CIRCULATION CLOSING OFF OVER ERN PA AND NJ WOULD YIELD A

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE

MEAN KICK THE WAVE OUT TO SEA QUICKLY WITH THE FCST AREA GETTING

MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE CAN GGEM IS A DECENT

COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT WITH HPC MOVING SNOW IN SAT NIGHT INTO

SUNDAY MORNING. THE STEADIEST SNOW WOULD POTENTIALLY BE LATE SUNDAY

INTO MONDAY LATE MORNING BEFORE THE STORM MOVES NORTH AND EAST OF

CAPE COD. IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR

LIKELY POPS IN DAYS 5 AND 6. WE WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN

THE HWO THE CHC OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off