steffen Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Girlfriend just said must be snowing at 3 inches per hour if not more. Heaviest snow she's seen in years. She said it was a whiteout with no wind what so ever. That snow shower went right over me. Took a little walk and it was great! Def. unexpected in intensity and accumulation. Probably got 2-3 inches since the afternoon with these little showers. Quite a surprise. But it wasn't 3"/h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well comparing 00Z ECEMS from 0th of Dec to 12z ECEMS from 12z I see two trends 1) a bit faster motion to the storm and two it looks like the 12z run is also more east vs the OP with the spread between the 12z EC operational (farthest west) and the ECEM more east. Its still like 5 days away so it is still interesting. This said starting tomorro as we enter the "within" 5 day period of onset I would like to see the ensembles of the EC (GFS, too) to begin to show adjustments west. I agree....IMO This kind of storm setup is hard to pin down until 72 hours or so before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 question: how does KBGM's current AFD that discusses weekend storm come to the conclusion that the 12Z Euro and GFS keep the system "well offshore"? The Euro shows a SLP track near or over Cape Cod w/ significant intensification occurring and a well developed deformation zone (esp 00z run) indicated in the 700mb panels over CNY. The GFS has a track east of CC but well inside the Benchmark and although it shows a restricted precip field - that's usually the least reliable of the model panels. Maybe they are discussing ensembles as opposed to op runs but that isn't clear. Or maybe its a carried over AFD from previous shifts. Just curious. (edit: I just read HPC's disco and it seems reasonable and argues that the more likely solution is going to be offshore and not a coastal hugger.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 That snow shower went right over me. Took a little walk and it was great! Def. unexpected in intensity and accumulation. Probably got 2-3 inches since the afternoon with these little showers. Quite a surprise. But it wasn't 3"/h she lives in west Seneca. You live in buffalo. The snow showed 35 dbz plus returns over her house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steffen Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 she lives in west Seneca. You live in buffalo. The snow showed 35 dbz plus returns over her house. not going to argue (enjoying what I got), but still don't buy it. Especially since you somehow always seem to get the highest accums with the biggest rates in all of WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS model has consistently been showing some kind of major storm for New Years weekend, as well as a surge of cold behind the storm. Unfortunately that's a big travel weekend for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The hammer has to fall on Albany one of these days. LOL Last year they dodged almost everything (that one 12" in flushed away event excepted). What's it been like six years since there has been an average or above snowfall season there? I have been saved by elevation I guess, but the HV is extremely due for something. Yes, Albany hasn't had average or greater snowfall since 04-05! They're way overdue. Hopefully we can make up for it a bit while I'm in town... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Happy Winter! Let the real fun and games begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yes, Albany hasn't had average or greater snowfall since 04-05! They're way overdue. Hopefully we can make up for it a bit while I'm in town... Yeah the last 5 years haven't been great around Albany I can vouch for that. 07-08 wasn't too bad even though it was slightly below normal.. I remember having a decent snowpack most of the winter. We really haven't had a big storm right in Albany since valentines day 07'. One big storm would make this winter somewhat of success even if we end up below normal again.. which is now seeming more likely. If the trend of 2010 continues this next storm will find a way to screw us over and give the mid atlantic or southeast a snowstorm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The GFS model has consistently been showing some kind of major storm for New Years weekend, as well as a surge of cold behind the storm. Unfortunately that's a big travel weekend for me! the 0z gfs has parades of storms racing to our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thoughts for post Christmas Storm threat: 00Z GEFS still south and east of OPS GFS and even EC with a lot of clustering to the SE of the BM. ECEM also east of OP run. Some positive signs though off of GEFS is the appearance of around -2 SD winds @ H250 across NY/NE on Monday indicating potential slowing/stalling of system. Also near -2 SD NE winds @ 850 same area/time allowing for increased/above normal moisture flux/ > than normal pwats I think we may not see too much shift in the ensembles west for another day or so but by later tomorrow night more so Friday I think you'll start to see at least a few more members jog west. I also like the fact that this upcoming system has more ridging out west. This ridge will be critical as to where it sets up: I don't like the fact that the OP models have it more across the Plains vs. farther west like over the Rockies or just west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the 0z gfs has parades of storms racing to our region [/quo\\\ January 1999 all over again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thanks Andy. I appreciate your time to post an update,this also goes to everyone else watching this unfold. I was at a friends house and he says" you want this snow blower? It has been used twice it won't start and I am throwing it away we don't need them anymore.!!!" It will be repaired today just so I can hopefully use it when he comes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Is the 12zed rolling in yet? What's the latest, out to sea? Hug the coast? Runnin to chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You can definitely rule out the third option with this upcoming event. The 12Z GFS is coming in and I suspect it is out to sea. I kind of like to see the trough go neutral by the longitude of Chicago, but there are always exceptions. Ridge is sharp out west, but axis in Saskatchewan...Alberta would be better. Yep...Adios LOL ...but Euro might mean more as the GFS is often crap in this range. Overall though it seems like we'd need some luck to get this storm good. Is the 12zed rolling in yet? What's the latest, out to sea? Hug the coast? Runnin to chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I forgot to write "miss to the south and east" but I figured out to sea was the likely winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 You could see where the surface low may not be as far out to sea as the GFS has it ..given the upper level set up. But it would still be too far out for most of Upstate NY. But it is only one operational run of one model.... I forot to write "miss to the south and east" but I figured out to sea was the likely winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The Euro, Canadian and GFS are all fairly consistent with the storm. We will see what the NAM has to say tomorrow. One good thing of note is the latest GFS run showed the Vortex getting a little weaker and moving further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Note on the 12z runs of the GFS and GGEM the PV that slides/(or tries to per the GGEM) SSW'ward toward L. Superior. The GFS has this barrelling on in and messing up any potential ridging, as the height field would have to accomodate such a feature dropping south, thus not allowing for a "fanned" ridge look to evolve. The GGEM, OTOH, doesn't even allow the PV into N. Canada, until much later (and does so, not into our area of concern, but another smaller trough to the east....This allows ample room for an explosion of the height field, NE of our system. This is OUR biggest key to getting this system further west at higher latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 saw this maps on Bret Anderson blog .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 WOW! 12z EC has moderate to heavy precip over almost ALL of NYS with a sub 968 low just touching the southern tip of long island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 euro is a monster for the books onyl 144 hours away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 euro is a monster for the books onyl 144 hours away! I'll start to take this seriously if its still showing a similar solution by 00z Friday. Even though Euro is king any earlier than that and it can still flip flop too much as we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 WOW! 12z EC has moderate to heavy precip over almost ALL of NYS with a sub 968 low just touching the southern tip of long island! Given the surface low track, looks like a big hit for ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Given the surface low track, looks like a big hit for ENY. What about WNY? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I'll start to take this seriously if its still showing a similar solution by 00z Friday. Even though Euro is king any earlier than that and it can still flip flop too much as we've seen. The models have been all over the place.I am happy to read all the excitement,but I am concerned about the hesitation (models) of bringing it to this area.That said,I am looking at what the others(Wx4cast,Tornado girl,Logan11,ect) are posting. If the enthusiasm starts climbing then I will start taking notice.If anything I have read everything(NOT in this forum but other wishcasters) from this storm is fish food to get your books and pen's cause it's going to be epic... It takes a way different approach and skill to forecast for this area.We almost seem to have our own little world of weather in this geographical area and nobody I know of can come close to Andy.If he say's it,bank on it.If you ask,he will at least listen and try to explain it.I know of two other "local" stations that I will not watch their weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 euro is a monster for the books onyl 144 hours away! When is this for? the 26th-27th? No doubt Ottawa will be just that bit too far west while Montreal gets a foot. In the longer range, the GFS continues to be all over the palce with the potential New Years storm. One thing's for sure: the model seems to be sniffing out some kind of major pattern change around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just checked the latest Euro, and as suspected, it shows a miss for eastern Ontario. This is just not Ottawa's winter. Talk about payback for the winters of 2007/2008 and 2008/2009! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just checked the latest Euro, and as suspected, it shows a miss for eastern Ontario. This is just not Ottawa's winter. Talk about payback for the winters of 2007/2008 and 2008/2009! 12z euro has ottawa in line for 8-14 inches and strong NE winds. it is a monster storm reminiscent of 93, but not there yet.......and im not saying it will either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What about WNY? lol.. buffalo gets between 0.50-0.60 inches liquid approx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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