Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[WNYLakeEffect]

A little bit of weather history...

A few months ago, the Signal Service and Weather Bureau obs from Buffalo were finally put online (can be found here: http://climate.usurf...oducts/data.php). No snow amounts exist before 1885 or so.

As I looked through it, one winter stood out, 1878-79, as I expected per newspapers I've found from then.

October 1878

The month was quite wet with 6.87" of rain, warm (1.7F above today's average) and snowless.

Date;High;Low;Precip

1878-10-01,80.0,60.0,0,
1878-10-02,69.0,61.0,0.005,
1878-10-03,66.0,59.0,0,
1878-10-04,65.0,53.0,0,
1878-10-05,57.0,41.0,0.1,
1878-10-06,54.0,45.0,0.08,
1878-10-07,60.0,36.0,0,
1878-10-08,66.0,49.0,0,
1878-10-09,70.0,48.0,0.18,
1878-10-10,55.0,42.0,0,
1878-10-11,59.0,38.0,0.005,
1878-10-12,59.0,47.0,0.04,
1878-10-13,62.0,42.0,0,
1878-10-14,68.0,54.0,0.05,
1878-10-15,67.0,62.0,0.05,
1878-10-16,75.0,64.0,0.02,
1878-10-17,71.0,46.0,0.44,
1878-10-18,47.0,42.0,0.46,
1878-10-19,45.0,38.0,0.09,
1878-10-20,58.0,37.0,0,
1878-10-21,64.0,48.0,0,
1878-10-22,69.0,45.0,0,
1878-10-23,59.0,42.0,1.81,
1878-10-24,54.0,40.0,0,
1878-10-25,60.0,37.0,0,
1878-10-26,59.0,45.0,1.37,
1878-10-27,59.0,37.0,0.68,
1878-10-28,39.0,33.0,0,
1878-10-29,48.0,36.0,0,
1878-10-30,47.0,36.0,0.89,
1878-10-31,45.0,31.0,0.6,

November 1878

November 1878 was below average (1.5F to today's average), slightly wetter than normal, but probably didn't see too much snow. A few inches probably fell from the 5th to 7th and maybe an inch on the 27th.

1878-11-01,46.0,30.0,0.005,
1878-11-02,50.0,36.0,0.05,
1878-11-03,42.0,31.0,0,
1878-11-04,41.0,27.0,0,
1878-11-05,33.0,24.0,0.005,
1878-11-06,35.0,30.0,0.22,
1878-11-07,38.0,28.0,0.07,
1878-11-08,38.0,29.0,0,
1878-11-09,40.0,28.0,0.05,
1878-11-10,48.0,36.0,0,
1878-11-11,52.0,43.0,0.15,
1878-11-12,48.0,42.0,0.16,
1878-11-13,47.0,33.0,0.26,
1878-11-14,38.0,30.0,0,
1878-11-15,46.0,26.0,0,
1878-11-16,48.0,34.0,0.04,
1878-11-17,54.0,44.0,0.28,
1878-11-18,50.0,46.0,0.02,
1878-11-19,50.0,42.0,0,
1878-11-20,50.0,38.0,0.05,
1878-11-21,49.0,40.0,0.08,
1878-11-22,43.0,36.0,1.34,
1878-11-23,40.0,34.0,0.18,
1878-11-24,44.0,36.0,0,
1878-11-25,37.0,32.0,0.34,
1878-11-26,37.0,30.0,0,
1878-11-27,38.0,26.0,0.88,
1878-11-28,45.0,35.0,0.27,
1878-11-29,41.0,36.0,0,
1878-11-30,40.0,34.0,0,

December 1878

This is the month where things really got started...and the start of one of the greatest 30-50 days of winter in Buffalo's history.

The first 10 days of the month were variable and wet, with some minor snow.

1878-12-01,44.0,29.0,0,
1878-12-02,49.0,37.0,0.77,
1878-12-03,41.0,34.0,0.26,
1878-12-04,35.0,27.0,0.1,
1878-12-05,28.0,22.0,0.13,
1878-12-06,34.0,27.0,0.01,
1878-12-07,32.0,23.0,0.005,
1878-12-08,32.0,24.0,0.1,
1878-12-09,44.0,28.0,0.75,
1878-12-10,46.0,32.0,1.31,

The next ten days turned much colder, but still didn't have any significant snow. It was frequent though, with measurable snow likely falling on 8 out of the 10 days.

1878-12-11,34.0,30.0,0.14,
1878-12-12,31.0,28.0,0,
1878-12-13,31.0,28.0,0,
1878-12-14,30.0,26.0,0.13,
1878-12-15,29.0,18.0,0.02,
1878-12-16,26.0,16.0,0.005,
1878-12-17,29.0,20.0,0.03,
1878-12-18,29.0,22.0,0.04,
1878-12-19,28.0,18.0,0.19,
1878-12-20,22.0,15.0,0.06,

The last 11 days of the month were huge...likely challenging Dec 2001 in terms of snowfall.

The New York Times reported that 37 inches of snow was on the ground by the evening of the 24^th and that a gust to 72mph was observed earlier that day. It was almost certainly a lake effect storm. Railroads were blocked with 6 to 8 feet of snow. They wouldn't be cleared until the 26^th. (Source: http://query.nytimes...FB4678383669FDE)

A total 4.13" of liquid fell from the 21st to 25th. Compare that to 4.49" in the Dec 2001 storm. Considering the colder temperature and blizzard conditions, it is very possible that this storm dropped nearly as much or more snow that Dec 2001. Another 0.38" of liquid fell with continued cold by the end of the month.

A total 8.56" of precip fell in December 1878, which remained the record until 1990. The average temp was 25.8F, a full 4.0F below today's average.

1878-12-21,32.0,18.0,0.34,
1878-12-22,33.0,18.0,1.02,
1878-12-23,18.0,7.0,1.73,
1878-12-24,18.0,6.0,0.55,
1878-12-25,24.0,16.0,0.49,
1878-12-26,24.0,17.0,0.04,
1878-12-27,23.0,16.0,0.25,
1878-12-28,22.0,18.0,0.02,
1878-12-29,24.0,10.0,0.04,
1878-12-30,25.0,17.0,0.01,
1878-12-31,20.0,15.0,0.02,

January 1879

The winter wasn't over.

New Years was dry, the first dry day since 12/13. However, the on the next day, yet another snowstorm began and lasted for the next 4 days, crippling much of Upstate. 1.31" of liquid fell with temps in the teens and single digits. That would likely equate to more than 2 feet of additional snow.

The entire Central NY railroad was buried from Syracuse to Buffalo for days. The New York Times called it "an unprecedented interruption to travel" and "unprecedented in the memory of the oldest inhabitant". (Source: http://query.nytimes...FB7668382669FDE) The extreme conditions led to a train crash and the crash of an attempted rescue. On January 7th, the snow blockade was finally ended. Snow continued to fall in Buffalo from the 6th to 10th, though the amounts were minor.

It was dry and cold from the 11th to 13th and a few inches of snow fell on the 14th and 15th. Another snowstorm hit on the 16th. 0.54" of liquid fell with temps in the teens...likely another 8-12" of snow. Occasional minor snow fell and cool to cold temperature continued from the 17th to 26th. Things briefly warmed into the 40s with rain and snow on the 27th and 28th, but cold and dry conditions came back quickly. The lake was almost certainly well frozen by this time, so lake effect was done.

The average January temp was 20.6F, 4F below today's average. Precip totaled 3.43".

1879-01-01,28.0,17.0,0,
1879-01-02,26.0,4.0,0.35,
1879-01-03,12.0,3.0,0.29,
1879-01-04,18.0,11.0,0.43,
1879-01-05,21.0,10.0,0.24,
1879-01-06,25.0,19.0,0.01,
1879-01-07,27.0,13.0,0.01,
1879-01-08,27.0,22.0,0.01,
1879-01-09,26.0,16.0,0.12,
1879-01-10,18.0,11.0,0.01,
1879-01-11,23.0,11.0,0,
1879-01-12,26.0,6.0,0,
1879-01-13,29.0,12.0,0,
1879-01-14,28.0,19.0,0.18,
1879-01-15,19.0,7.0,0.06,
1879-01-16,19.0,10.0,0.54,
1879-01-17,33.0,12.0,0,
1879-01-18,34.0,16.0,0.12,
1879-01-19,19.0,12.0,0.04,
1879-01-20,14.0,1.0,0.04,
1879-01-21,33.0,4.0,0.01,
1879-01-22,31.0,24.0,0,
1879-01-23,26.0,20.0,0.005,
1879-01-24,36.0,20.0,0,
1879-01-25,36.0,14.0,0.04,
1879-01-26,19.0,8.0,0.03,
1879-01-27,44.0,18.0,0.61,
1879-01-28,41.0,31.0,0.26,
1879-01-29,32.0,25.0,0,
1879-01-30,33.0,23.0,0,
1879-01-31,33.0,22.0,0.02,

February 1879

February 1879 was the coldest month of the winter, but also the tamest. A mid-month warm up and rainstorm was surrounded by frequent minor snow and cold nights.

The average temp was 19.3F, 6.6F below today's average, and precip was 2.84".

1879-02-01,26.0,9.0,0.16,
1879-02-02,26.0,7.0,0.02,
1879-02-03,28.0,23.0,0.08,
1879-02-04,28.0,24.0,0.01,
1879-02-05,30.0,26.0,0.06,
1879-02-06,29.0,20.0,0.06,
1879-02-07,24.0,14.0,0.01,
1879-02-08,31.0,11.0,0,
1879-02-09,34.0,16.0,0.02,
1879-02-10,39.0,9.0,0,
1879-02-11,43.0,35.0,0.69,
1879-02-12,42.0,18.0,0.25,
1879-02-13,19.0,7.0,0.09,
1879-02-14,9.0,2.0,0.005,
1879-02-15,12.0,-1.0,0,
1879-02-16,25.0,11.0,0.005,
1879-02-17,26.0,17.0,0.18,
1879-02-18,22.0,17.0,0.2,
1879-02-19,24.0,14.0,0.12,
1879-02-20,24.0,14.0,0.17,
1879-02-21,9.0,2.0,0.01,
1879-02-22,32.0,3.0,0.16,
1879-02-23,28.0,10.0,0.09,
1879-02-24,14.0,2.0,0,
1879-02-25,36.0,8.0,0.23,
1879-02-26,42.0,15.0,0.21,
1879-02-27,15.0,3.0,0.005,
1879-02-28,30.0,-2.0,0,

March and April 1879

March was below average (-2.6F) and dry (2.14"). Some minor snow fell in the 2nd half of the month.

April 1879 started out extremely cold, but only a fell inches of snow fell. The rest of the month was cool and dry.

1879-03-01,42.0,28.0,0,
1879-03-02,28.0,21.0,0,
1879-03-03,39.0,17.0,0,
1879-03-04,38.0,28.0,0.06,
1879-03-05,34.0,20.0,0,
1879-03-06,38.0,20.0,0.2,
1879-03-07,35.0,24.0,0,
1879-03-08,44.0,25.0,0.06,
1879-03-09,64.0,41.0,0.09,
1879-03-10,55.0,33.0,0.31,
1879-03-11,54.0,28.0,0.02,
1879-03-12,34.0,26.0,0,
1879-03-13,42.0,31.0,0,
1879-03-14,40.0,28.0,0.02,
1879-03-15,28.0,17.0,0.02,
1879-03-16,24.0,16.0,0.01,
1879-03-17,24.0,21.0,0.18,
1879-03-18,26.0,13.0,0.005,
1879-03-19,28.0,15.0,0,
1879-03-20,31.0,23.0,0.03,
1879-03-21,35.0,27.0,0.02,
1879-03-22,34.0,25.0,0.25,
1879-03-23,32.0,27.0,0.005,
1879-03-24,43.0,30.0,0.09,
1879-03-25,34.0,27.0,0,
1879-03-26,45.0,24.0,0.09,
1879-03-27,45.0,33.0,0.07,
1879-03-28,44.0,32.0,0.01,
1879-03-29,46.0,34.0,0.57,
1879-03-30,36.0,27.0,0.03,
1879-03-31,38.0,24.0,0,
1879-04-01,36.0,24.0,0.01,
1879-04-02,30.0,21.0,0.02,
1879-04-03,25.0,19.0,0.08,
1879-04-04,21.0,15.0,0.15,
1879-04-05,28.0,17.0,0.005,
1879-04-06,38.0,20.0,0.01,
1879-04-07,40.0,32.0,0,
1879-04-08,39.0,27.0,0,
1879-04-09,56.0,33.0,0,
1879-04-10,51.0,29.0,0.56,
1879-04-11,37.0,28.0,0.01,
1879-04-12,37.0,29.0,0,
1879-04-13,42.0,29.0,0.13,
1879-04-14,40.0,33.0,0,
1879-04-15,39.0,33.0,0.21,
1879-04-16,46.0,32.0,0.005,
1879-04-17,42.0,36.0,0.07,
1879-04-18,50.0,35.0,0,
1879-04-19,51.0,37.0,0,
1879-04-20,45.0,34.0,0,
1879-04-21,44.0,33.0,0,
1879-04-22,51.0,38.0,0,
1879-04-23,52.0,40.0,0.005,
1879-04-24,70.0,35.0,0,
1879-04-25,65.0,44.0,0,
1879-04-26,63.0,40.0,0,
1879-04-27,72.0,54.0,0.01,
1879-04-28,62.0,38.0,0.1,
1879-04-29,59.0,36.0,0,
1879-04-30,51.0,35.0,0.005,

The Winter

I am 100% sure than Buffalo saw no less than 150" of snow this winter. The extended snow and cold, particularly the 12/21 to 1/5 period, rivals some of the great periods in Buffalo's history. 1976-77 probably still remains king, but this winter, long forgotten, is quite the beast.

Some other stats:

ENSO-

Nov- +0.2

Dec- +0.2

Jan- +0.1

Feb- -0.1

Mar- -0.1

ftp://www.coaps.fsu....-today.filter-5

CRU NAO-

Oct- -3.47

Nov- -3.31

Dec- -0.92

Jan- -0.71

Feb- +0.85

Mar- -0.08

http://www.cru.uea.a...ata/nao/nao.dat

Note: This shows more extreme #'s than CPC, but a -3.00 is still very negative.

Apologies for the long post, the formatting on this board was fighting with me...

[Tornado Girl]

18z GFS has a little snow for us Saturday and I'm starting to get interested in Sunday .

[Logan11]

That was some very interesting data. I love to read about Nineteenth Century Storms. I used to spend my spare time at SUNY Albany (years ago) in old editions of the NY Times reading about historic snowstorms. Others were running after girls.....I was looking up snowstorms.

A little bit of weather history...

A few months ago, the Signal Service and Weather Bureau obs from Buffalo were finally put online (can be found here: http://climate.usurf...oducts/data.php). No snow amounts exist before 1885 or so.

[Logan11]

Looks at the wacky 18Z NAM giving many of us 6"+ if snow from that Tues/Wed inverted trough.

18z GFS has a little snow for us Saturday and I'm starting to get interested in Sunday .

[Tornado Girl]

That was very interesting, Like Logan, I love to sift through old data. I appreciate all the work you did to bring it to us...Thanks for sharing.

[Tornado Girl]

Looks at the wacky 18Z NAM giving many of us 6"+ if snow from that Tues/Wed inverted trough.

I don't know how much faith I place on this run. Most of the 12z models showed a relatively quiet week for most of us in NYS. There is chance for a little bit of LES Wed night and part of Thursday.

[ayuud]

should i trust the 18z?

[Logan11]

Hey I just threw it out there because things are dead in here. I certainly didn't say I believe it.

should i trust the 18z?

[Tornado Girl]

should i trust the 18z?

I waiting to see what the 0z NAM and GFS have to say.

[Buffalo Bumble]

A little bit of weather history...

Great read WNYLakeEffect. Thanks for posting.

[FEFD17]

snowstorm began and lasted for the next 4 days, crippling much of Upstate. 1.31" of liquid fell with temps in the teens and single digits.

Now THAT is what I am talking about!!!!!!!!

That is totally incredible.Thanks for posting.

I only hope history repeats itself. I could see Andy on the set dancing a jig!! LOL!!!!!

[wolfie09]

Nam still showing precip for the middle of the week..

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F20%2F2010+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=Loop+All

[Ottawa Blizzard]

EC forecasting periods of snow in Ottawa for Wednesday. I'm guessing the Canadian model agrees with the NAM.

18z GFS seems to show light snow in Toronto by late Christmas Day and in Ottawa by Boxing Day (the 26th).

[Catskills]

That was very interesting, Like Logan, I love to sift through old data. I appreciate all the work you did to bring it to us...Thanks for sharing.

You may like this: http://www.catskill.net/purple/catweath.htm

In the book, Dr. Thaler recounts a number of extreme weather events from way back when.

[FEFD17]

Much less frost this morning.I did not look at the temp,but it did not seem as cold this morning as yesterday...to me anyway.I just read the NWS AFD they are all over the place with the model runs for Christmas weekend.

Andy,do you happen to know if Wten is going to go with a mobil support for weather on their site? I cannot get it on the IPod (unless I am doing something wrong)

[Logan11]

It got cold here gain with a thick frost the snow glistening with ice crystals. Low of 4.6F.

NAM still throws a few inches back into ENY with the Wednesday inverted trough, but it pulled back in qpf. Got to wonder if it vanishes from the model eventually.

Much less frost this morning.I did not look at the temp,but it did not seem as cold this morning as yesterday...to me anyway.I just read the NWS AFD they are all over the place with the model runs for Christmas weekend.

Andy,do you happen to know if Wten is going to go with a mobil support for weather on their site? I cannot get it on the IPod (unless I am doing something wrong)

[Organizing Low]

looks like there will be some festive snow tomorrow and wednesday for some

keep your eye on the post-xmas storm.

[NorEaster27]

Much less frost this morning.I did not look at the temp,but it did not seem as cold this morning as yesterday...to me anyway.I just read the NWS AFD they are all over the place with the model runs for Christmas weekend.

Andy,do you happen to know if Wten is going to go with a mobil support for weather on their site? I cannot get it on the IPod (unless I am doing something wrong)

I was in Bolton Landing and Lake Placid this past wekend, some snow around bolton but good snow in lake placid. Around a foot on the ground especially just west of the city.

[FEFD17]

looks like there will be some festive snow tomorrow and wednesday for some

keep your eye on the post-xmas storm.

Not to sound negative,I am trying not to even think about it.I want it to hit,dont get me wrong there,but the last storm that I read WAYYYYY to much into I found was only to be a huge let down.If the "vets" get interested(Andy,Tornado girl,ect) I will be a little more interested,but not until.It has actually warmed up to nice 28 degrees and bright sunshine now.

[Organizing Low]

Not to sound negative,I am trying not to even think about it.I want it to hit,dont get me wrong there,but the last storm that I read WAYYYYY to much into I found was only to be a huge let down.If the "vets" get interested(Andy,Tornado girl,ect) I will be a little more interested,but not until.It has actually warmed up to nice 28 degrees and bright sunshine now.

well its going to require a solid phase to bring it up into our neck of the woods, what with the blocking....so that in of itself is a red flag, lol

still worth watching though, but maybe in 3 or so days.

[Avid6eek]

well its going to require a solid phase to bring it up into our neck of the woods

Agreed...this storm is either going to either be a decent hit for us, or phase late/not at all and slide harmlessly OTS south of us.

Unfortunately the EURO only seems to be right when it is showing a miss for us. I'd love this afternoon's 12Z run to verify.

[ayuud]

anytime this block ends?

[2Slick]

[ayuud]

" DEEPENING COLD AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE

POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED WESTWARD IS AN UNCERTAINTY AT

THIS TIME. THIS TIME FRAME WILL HAVE TO MONITORED FOR ACCUMULATING

LAKE SNOWS...BUT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS COLD AS THE

COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT WE HAD TO DEAL WITH EARLIER IN THE

MONTH. HOWEVER...STILL BEARS WATCHING."

[lakeeffectkid383]

" DEEPENING COLD AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE

POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED WESTWARD IS AN UNCERTAINTY AT

THIS TIME. THIS TIME FRAME WILL HAVE TO MONITORED FOR ACCUMULATING

LAKE SNOWS...BUT THE AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS COLD AS THE

COUPLE OF NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT WE HAD TO DEAL WITH EARLIER IN THE

MONTH. HOWEVER...STILL BEARS WATCHING."

Hopefully it'll be snowing while I'm at the bills game Sunday =]

[Wx4cast]

Not to sound negative,I am trying not to even think about it.I want it to hit,dont get me wrong there,but the last storm that I read WAYYYYY to much into I found was only to be a huge let down.If the "vets" get interested(Andy,Tornado girl,ect) I will be a little more interested,but not until.It has actually warmed up to nice 28 degrees and bright sunshine now.

well its going to require a solid phase to bring it up into our neck of the woods, what with the blocking....so that in of itself is a red flag, lol

still worth watching though, but maybe in 3 or so days.

Agreed...this storm is either going to either be a decent hit for us, or phase late/not at all and slide harmlessly OTS south of us.

Unfortunately the EURO only seems to be right when it is showing a miss for us. I'd love this afternoon's 12Z run to verify.

Well comparing 00Z ECEMS from 0th of Dec to 12z ECEMS from 12z I see two trends 1) a bit faster motion to the storm and two it looks like the 12z run is also more east vs the OP with the spread between the 12z EC operational (farthest west) and the ECEM more east. Its still like 5 days away so it is still interesting. This said starting tomorro as we enter the "within" 5 day period of onset I would like to see the ensembles of the EC (GFS, too) to begin to show adjustments west.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

looks like there will be some festive snow tomorrow and wednesday for some

keep your eye on the post-xmas storm.

I am really hoping EC's foreast for Wednesday comes true, but they seem to be the only ones calling for snow in Ottawa on that day. A fresh 2" would do wonders for the festive atmosphere, so here's hoping.

I have looked at the post Christmas storm, but it seems to largely miss us to the east, at least according to the GFS runs.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Girlfriend just said must be snowing at 3 inches per hour if not more. Heaviest snow she's seen in years. She said it was a whiteout with no wind what so ever.

[ayuud]

Girlfriend just said must be snowing at 3 inches per hour if not more. Heaviest snow she's seen in years. She said it was a whiteout with no wind what so ever.

I'm getting this quick bursts of heavy snow,about 1 1/2 inches since this morning

[Syrmax]

I'm experiencing some of the most dry weather we've had this month. Scary stuff.

weekend storm has nice potential for this regional thread, Euro showing a nice deformation zone on 700mb panels, esp the 00Z from last night and even the GooFuS trying to join in. Probably a lot of work to get sig snow back into WNY or ONT, other than ULL SN/SN-...but its early in the game. And beware qpf panels, the least accurate of anything. 18Z GFS shows a 980 mb low and strengthening over eastern MA w/ the significant precip shield barely to Hudson Valley. Not likely. One thing i've learned on these interwebs, you generally don't want to be bulls-eyed 5 or 6 days out.