Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[Wx4cast]

The next potential synoptic threat looks to be around Xmas Eve into Xmas day. 0z GFS brings potential advisory-level snowfall up thru atleast a portion of southern Upstate...

While both the EC and GFS have trended a tick north with their respective 00z runs I am not overly enthused on this event either. The upper air pattern is nearly identical on the 23-24 as it is with this weekend's LP development over the western Atlantic. I will add though that the models are trying to show a bit more ridging back towards Montana and Idaho which is a good sign.

Also be wary of GFS qpf forecast in winter time it likes to "spit" a lot of QPF into the cold air.

[Wx4cast]

I have lived in this area 40 years(all my life). I remember as a kid waiting for the bus and even as a young adult the weather was different. I remember certain storms more than others although I don't know what years.I remember there being at least a foot of snow on one storm and then it went to freezing rain and it was thick enough that my little brother and I would see who would break through by walking on it.I remember seeing storms come in and the roads would have a ton of snow on them before the plows came through just trying to keep up.The storms then were different in both accumulation and intensity.I don't ever remember anything that is going on now(or for that matter not happening) when I was a kid.This is what I was trying to ask.I wanted to compare the mid 70s to around 1990...I graduated high school in 1989.the comparison was only to see if there is/was a cycle effect to patterns and how long or short they average and what type pattern runs next.

I beg to differ with your assessment; I've been up here for 23 almost 24 years now and the very late 80s thru very early 90s were plain HORRID for snow 88-89 I only totaled 21" of snow that year and the big storm was 3.7 inches LES from Lakes Champlain and George! 90-91 stunk too only 26 inches and 91-92 wasn't that much more either.

The bottom line is you get into patterns like this every now and then and it is really difficult to say well every X amount of years a 12" + storm affects the region.

Here's something else that I have noticed looking at snowfall data for Albany NY

Statistically you have a better chance of having consecutive winters with BELOW normal snowfall then you do of having ABOVE normal snowfall; the odds of having 3 consecutive winters with BELOW normal snowfall are even greater than having three consecutive winters with ABOVE average snowfall.

[West Point, NY]

Statistically you have a better chance of having consecutive winters with BELOW normal snowfall then you do of having ABOVE normal snowfall; the odds of having 3 consecutive winters with BELOW normal snowfall are even greater than having three consecutive winters with ABOVE average snowfall.

Absolutely! To get the snow in the Northeast you need many things to comply including upper and lower atmosphere temp. profile, high pressure over SE Canada (if you want the cold to hold), and the jet aligned properly (up the coast...not out to sea or to our west). For the big ones you also need the PJ and STJ to phase at the right time or risk being screwed in between systems. After all of that, you actually need to have a somewhat active pattern or you will never get the precipitation for the chance for an above average winter.

[Organizing Low]

The GFS model keeps flipping around as to whether or not the period between Christmas and new years is going to be cold or warm. This morning's 6zed has it cold, while yesterday it looked warm. Any thoughts?

Perhaps the cold anomolies will shift north come the new year? It looks like Sept Iles, Quebec might get its second green Christmas in a row. Pretty incredible! It's interesting that Joe Bastardi goes on about how the pattern overall may be turning colder in the big population areas over the next few years, yet if high latitude blocking is what gets us to that, what he fails to highlight is that places such as Sept Iles and labrador, which traditionally have had ferocious winters, are going to be having warmer winters. Those areas are practically torhing at the moment! Perhaps, then, Canada's climate WILL warm over the next 20-30 years thanks to high latitude blocking while high population areas such as western Europe, the Ohio valley and the mid atlantic states will cool.

yes i was thinking about it last night

all these theories of warming and such (which i never pay attention too) are probably nothing more than decadal type cycles which we are seeing great evidence of the past 2 winters....we seemed to have entered a new regime. its defintely interesting.

on another note, i wonder if this is the least amount of snow that will ever fall in ottawa in one calendar year? i dont know if they have records for that, but i imagine 2010 will threaten the mark. same for montreal and toronto too.

[ayuud]

Buf,Roc,BGM and Syr are all above average snowfall so far for december except albany

SYR 71.6 23 <avg to date

ROC 45.2 18.3

BGM 29.2 16.8

BUF 27.9 +2 inches last night i think? 23.3

ALB 4.2 11.0

[WNYLakeEffect]

Buf,Roc,BGM and Syr are all above average snowfall so far for december except albany

SYR 71.6 23 <avg to date

ROC 45.2 18.3

BGM 29.2 16.8

BUF 27.9 +2 inches last night i think? 23.3

ALB 4.2 11.0

1.9" overnight at KBUF.

Up to 49.4" for the season. It's above average, but not hugely. For comparison, at this time in Dec 2008, we'd had 74.0", with another 18" coming by the end of the month (that was the most amazing winter of my life thus far...). At this time last year we'd had 31.5" (half of which fell in 14 hours on 12/11) with another 15.0" coming by the end of the month.

[FEFD17]

I beg to differ with your assessment; I've been up here for 23 almost 24 years now and the very late 80s thru very early 90s were plain HORRID for snow 88-89 I only totaled 21" of snow that year and the big storm was 3.7 inches LES from Lakes Champlain and George! 90-91 stunk too only 26 inches and 91-92 wasn't that much more either.

The bottom line is you get into patterns like this every now and then and it is really difficult to say well every X amount of years a 12" + storm affects the region.

Here's something else that I have noticed looking at snowfall data for Albany NY

Statistically you have a better chance of having consecutive winters with BELOW normal snowfall then you do of having ABOVE normal snowfall; the odds of having 3 consecutive winters with BELOW normal snowfall are even greater than having three consecutive winters with ABOVE average snowfall.

I have to respectfully say you are correct in the late 80-90's area.I remember a year around ~2003-4(?) there was NO snow fall a dusting at best on the ground in February and it was really cold.

I will respectfully say I totally disagree with you on the winters when I was a kid.I was born in 1970.I remember the previously stated winters very well.It would have to be the area of ~1974-78.

I know it sounds like it's all complaining,and you know what? some of it very well could be.I am just looking at the winter cycles and what happens where to kind of average it all out.The way it looks right now,is that it's nothing more than a crapshoot to say the winter of whatever was great and the winter of whatever was garbage. I am only trying to find an average for good vs bad on snowfall/precip from previous years to present.

Again I am not trying to incite anyone or piss anyone off, I am only lookin to find weather cycles and duration.

[Couchsachraga]

FED17,

I think the simple answer is it isn't that simple - too many factors that may change what will happen in our little part of the world, and over the long term it may in fact be fairly random. Looking at some of these factors some forecasters (I'm thinking HM, and Tip to an extent) do an absolutely amazing job attempting to predict what the next season (or two) may be like. Further out than that, who knows....

It really is amazing how good the forecasters are at interpreting the model readouts out 2- even 5 days. Just a few years ago there were a lot more surprises than we have now... unfortunately with the "internet information age" we all tend to believe all information is out there and is readily available. (I too wish someone could tell me when we'd finally get a 6" + storm here!, but as I know that won't happen, I'll keep trying to learn so I too can spot upcoming storms (that may or may not amount to anything in our area )

[NorEaster27]

I'm in lake placid / whiteface and it snowed all day

[Buffalo Bumble]

Anyone up for a road trip to Yosemite Park? I believe that's 6 to 10 feet over a 3-day period!

Point Forecast: 9 Miles NNE Yosemite Valley CA

37.85°N 119.53°W (Elev. 9194 ft)

This Afternoon: Snow. Steady temperature around 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind around 29 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Low around 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind between 15 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 22 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 25 to 28 mph decreasing to between 16 and 19 mph. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Monday: Snow. High near 28. Southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.

Monday Night: Snow. Low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

[Andyace]

This whole week is going to be fairly quiet weather week.

I have only received around 12"-15" this whole season.

Maybe it's the Windmills, lol.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The 18zed run is hideous...and that's supposedly always the "hype" run. Cold air pretty much gone, as are any real potential storms. EC and TWN are still calling for up to 2" of snow here on Tuesday, but i can't figure out what from - the GFS at least has no low pressure even approaching our area. Has EC "sunk to a new low"? What's the latest Euro showing?

I've noticed that 1992-92, Ottawa airport's third or fourth snowiest winter started mild, with December only averaging out with a mean in the low 20s (-5C). January 1993 started warm, with rain on the 4th and 5th, but turned snowy by mid month and eventually very cold in late January and early February. That was an El Nino year though, so i guess we can't make too many comparisons.

[swva]

Made it to Redfield today about 12pm. Beautiful day up here if you like sun . High of 26 degrees and about 13 or 14 inches of snow on the ground. Looks like a quiet week. At least I will get some sleep this trip.

[Tornado Girl]

The 18zed run is hideous...and that's supposedly always the "hype" run. Cold air pretty much gone, as are any real potential storms. EC and TWN are still calling for up to 2" of snow here on Tuesday, but i can't figure out what from - the GFS at least has no low pressure even approaching our area. Has EC "sunk to a new low"? What's the latest Euro showing?

I've noticed that 1992-92, Ottawa airport's third or fourth snowiest winter started mild, with December only averaging out with a mean in the low 20s (-5C). January 1993 started warm, with rain on the 4th and 5th, but turned snowy by mid month and eventually very cold in late January and early February. That was an El Nino year though, so i guess we can't make too many comparisons.

Here is the EURO for Tuesday

The models are showing a fairly quiet week for Ontario and New York State

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Here is the EURO for Tuesday

The models are showing a fairly quiet week for Ontario and New York State

Environment Canada must therefore be on crack with its call for periods of snow on Tuesday

[Organizing Low]

Environment Canada must therefore be on crack with its call for periods of snow on Tuesday

they are going of the GEM which is verbatim showing some light snow from an inverted trough as the atlantic low posssibly retrogrades some.

env canada only looks at the GEM, they dont use any other models to forecast, so if you look at the GFS, you wont see what they are seeing.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

they are going of the GEM which is verbatim showing some light snow from an inverted trough as the atlantic low posssibly retrogrades some.

env canada only looks at the GEM, they dont use any other models to forecast, so if you look at the GFS, you wont see what they are seeing.

Good to know. Hopefully they'll be right. The light snow yesterday evening certainly added to the Christmas/festive atmosphere here in Ottawa.

I'm still optimistic about january. I've been looking back at some winters from the 60s, and Ottawa experiened a number of mild Decembers in a row: 1964,1965, 1966 and 1967. 1964 was particularly hideous with steady rain falling on Christmas morning with a tempersture in the upper 40s! There was bare ground for a time in each of those Decembers. So much for the winters of Ottawa past having snow up to the rooftops by Christmas. Even a number of Decembers in the 80s were relatively mild, including 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986 and 1987. No wonder December 1989 came as a shock to the system! Apparently there was an ice storm on Christmas Day 1986 with much of the city losing power - people couldn't cook their turkeys!

[Tornado Girl]

Good to know. Hopefully they'll be right. The light snow yesterday evening certainly added to the Christmas/festive atmosphere here in Ottawa.

I'm still optimistic about january. I've been looking back at some winters from the 60s, and Ottawa experiened a number of mild Decembers in a row: 1964,1965, 1966 and 1967. 1964 was particularly hideous with steady rain falling on Christmas morning with a tempersture in the upper 40s! There was bare ground for a time in each of those Decembers. So much for the winters of Ottawa past having snow up to the rooftops by Christmas. Even a number of Decembers in the 80s were relatively mild, including 1981, 1982, 1984, 1986 and 1987. No wonder December 1989 came as a shock to the system! Apparently there was an ice storm on Christmas Day 1986 with much of the city losing power - people couldn't cook their turkeys!

Looking the GEM you can see there is a chance for 1-2 in ( 2.5-5.0 cm) for you

[2Slick]

Boring week ahead, by the looks of things...

[ontario squalls]

Is this the equivilant of once in a millenia? Storm of the millenia?

AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW

IS FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA WHILE A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE

WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE STATES. THIS TYPE OF FLOW

LOOKS MORE JOVIAN THAN TERRESTRIAL. A LOOK AT A HEMISPHERIC WV

LOOP WILL DRAMATICALLY DEPICT THIS FLOW...WHICH IS LARGELY DUE AN

EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG GREENLAND BLOCK/HIGH. JUST HOW STRONG? THE

H5/7 HEIGHTS ACROSS PARTS OF GREENLAND AND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARE

4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN NORMAL. THIS EQUATES TO

SOMETHING THAT HAS LESS THAN ONE CHANCE IN A THOUSAND OF

HAPPENING

[CNYWxGuy]

While both the EC and GFS have trended a tick north with their respective 00z runs I am not overly enthused on this event either. The upper air pattern is nearly identical on the 23-24 as it is with this weekend's LP development over the western Atlantic. I will add though that the models are trying to show a bit more ridging back towards Montana and Idaho which is a good sign.

Also be wary of GFS qpf forecast in winter time it likes to "spit" a lot of QPF into the cold air.

You may very well be right. Another close miss on the 0z GFS to the south and east. Also should be noted the GFS is currently about the furthest north with this system among the operational models to this point, so definately some work to do if this is going to produce anything meaningful across Upstate NY...

[ENYsnow]

You may very well be right. Another close miss on the 0z GFS to the south and east. Also should be noted the GFS is currently about the furthest north with this system among the operational models to this point, so definately some work to do if this is going to produce anything meaningful across Upstate NY...

if this christmas system ends up missing eastern ny chances are i'm gonna end up with under 5 inches of snow for the season by new years.. great. I'm not gonna be hopefull but still keep a close eye on this next system. Maybe the EC will start to trend north ever so slowly.

[ayuud]

Boring week ahead, by the looks of things...

shhhh you got enough snow already!

[Wx4cast]

You may very well be right. Another close miss on the 0z GFS to the south and east. Also should be noted the GFS is currently about the furthest north with this system among the operational models to this point, so definately some work to do if this is going to produce anything meaningful across Upstate NY...

Many of the models appear to be trending a bit more north now and they are indicating more ridging out west of varying strength and position, too. This ridge out west (both its strength and location) will be critical as to whether or not this system curls north or northeast. I'll also add I haven't looked at ensembles yet for either the EC or GFS sou I don't know what the spreads look like.

I'm starting to become a bit more interested but that's it for now.

[Sub_Zero]

Winds are blowing from the south, with light snow falling. Looked at the raders, and it looks like there's a streamer of LES coming right off L Ontario. snowing from Kingston to Ottawa...don't see that very often!

[Andyace]

3 below zedro this morning... Brrrrr.

[Organizing Low]

Winds are blowing from the south, with light snow falling. Looked at the raders, and it looks like there's a streamer of LES coming right off L Ontario. snowing from Kingston to Ottawa...don't see that very often!

nice!

lake effect in ottawa, always a fun time

lake ontario delivers

[ayuud]

Toronto is getting in some LES action

[FEFD17]

We just got an email at work saying that as long as there is no snow for the area on Saturday (Christmas) we get it off.If there is a good chance of snow,we are working. I am normally off on Saturday,but if we do work,the normal Saturday guy and myself are going to split the day (we work 12hr shifts).Christmas is the ONLY holiday we get off. I am really hoping for a storm but I wouldn't mind staying home with the family either.I had some major frost on the truck this morning and I went out to Fort Edward for a call,the frost was really heavy on cars,trees everything and it was cold.It did look really cool with the trees and ground all white--then someone has a hot air ballon in the air!!!

[Logan11]

The hammer has to fall on Albany one of these days. LOL Last year they dodged almost everything (that one 12" in flushed away event excepted). What's it been like six years since there has been an average or above snowfall season there?

I have been saved by elevation I guess, but the HV is extremely due for something.

if this christmas system ends up missing eastern ny chances are i'm gonna end up with under 5 inches of snow for the season by new years.. great. I'm not gonna be hopefull but still keep a close eye on this next system. Maybe the EC will start to trend north ever so slowly.