Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[Tornado Girl]

0z NAM

The run has it a little more to the west.

[FEFD17]

I am trying to look at the model,but my iPod is not real good for this.I can't see how far west it has moved.I have a couple questions.How much further west does it need to come to be a factor around this area? My second question,Logan has said the VD 07 Storm has some similarities to this storm as far as track trend ect is this still the case?

[Syrmax]

The ALB and GFL people on this thread may get into a snowstorm - or the western edge of it Sunday night into Monday...BGM surprisingly sort of bullish on (presumably) their eastern counties getting some snow out of this. I'm still thinking that the best impact for CNY might be some wraparound moisture that seeds the lake machine.

Today's 12Z Euro did look enticing though...major sfc lp over Long Island @ 96 hrs. 700mb RH indicated would could be a significant deformation band back into eastern ontario and Que. And a big dryslot working into southern new england. Gets more interesting the more I look at it.

I'd want to see US models come around towards the EC solution and then the EC hold serve the next day or so before I started to get more than casually interested.

[Tornado Girl]

I am trying to look at the model,but my iPod is not real good for this.I can't see how far west it has moved.I have a couple questions.How much further west does it need to come to be a factor around this area? My second question,Logan has said the VD 07 Storm has some similarities to this storm as far as track trend ect is this still the case?

The NAM's shift from the 18z is about 100 miles If the next run trends 100 -120 miles maybe you will get something. But remember this is just one model. If the Next EURO run doesn't move east. maybe were onto something. Tomorrows 12z runs should tell the tail.

[Tornado Girl]

0z GFS runs

[FEFD17]

If I can at least a plowable event,that would put me in the bonus round for Christmas cash.Thanks for the help!! iPods and model reading don't mix......LOL!!

[Syrmax]

00Z GFS probably a nice hit for my old stomping grounds in SE CT...we'll see how this develops w/ the next run or two of the EC. GFS has been on and off the current solution for a couple of days now. We need a very negative tilt system that develops far enough south in latitude to give it a chance to hook back in over southern new england. Last EC was in that ballpark. I still think that's low probability.

[Wx4cast]

The ALB and GFL people on this thread may get into a snowstorm - or the western edge of it Sunday night into Monday...BGM surprisingly sort of bullish on (presumably) their eastern counties getting some snow out of this. I'm still thinking that the best impact for CNY might be some wraparound moisture that seeds the lake machine.

Today's 12Z Euro did look enticing though...major sfc lp over Long Island @ 96 hrs. 700mb RH indicated would could be a significant deformation band back into eastern ontario and Que. And a big dryslot working into southern new england. Gets more interesting the more I look at it.

I'd want to see US models come around towards the EC solution and then the EC hold serve the next day or so before I started to get more than casually interested.

I am not overly enthused about the Hudson Valley seeing much if anything from this system. A lot of questions still exist in my mind; they range from the obvious one's like storm track and speed, to amount of lift and moisture availability. Often times in storms of this type there is strong subsidence (often underforecast, too) occuring to the west thru NW of the storm. Also personal experience would dictate 2 very sharp "cut-offs": The first one between no snow and snow and the second one within the snow area itself, that is light accumulation of a couple inches vs heavier amounts.

The NAM's shift from the 18z is about 100 miles If the next run trends 100 -120 miles maybe you will get something. But remember this is just one model. If the Next EURO run doesn't move east. maybe were onto something. Tomorrows 12z runs should tell the tail.

Agree but I would also like to see both the EC and GFS ensemble means coming west too which they are not. usually within 4.5 days or less they will start to adjust west if the storm is going to take a west track. So far the ensembles refuse to budge.

[West Point, NY]

I am not overly enthused about the Hudson Valley seeing much if anything from this system. A lot of questions still exist in my mind; they range from the obvious one's like storm track and speed, to amount of lift and moisture availability. Often times in storms of this type there is strong subsidence (often underforecast, too) occuring to the west thru NW of the storm.

Sadly but strongly agree.............

[Wx4cast]

I am trying to look at the model,but my iPod is not real good for this.I can't see how far west it has moved.I have a couple questions.How much further west does it need to come to be a factor around this area? My second question,Logan has said the VD 07 Storm has some similarities to this storm as far as track trend ect is this still the case?

The VD storm was very well forecast days out by both the OPS and Ensemble models. This storm (and TBH I respectfully disagree with Logan) really doesn't look like the VD07 storm especially if one looks at anomaly data for that storm and this upcoming system.

[Logan11]

I only brought up VD07 re: a discussion about where the heaviest snow might fall based on yesterday's 12Z Euro deformation versus its raw qpf output. I wasn't saying I thought this was an analog to VD storm...just musings about that particular model run. A model run that was apparently on steroids. LOL

I wish it hadn't done that because prior to that our hopes here in ENY were quite tempered. Then the usually reliable Euro goes and does that.....

At least I have 4 inches of snow cover....better than nothing.

The VD storm was very well forast days out by both the OPS and Ensemble models. This storm (and TBH I respectfully disagree with Logan) really doesn't look like the VD07 storm especially if one looks at anomaly data for that storm and this upcoming system.

[Wx4cast]

I only brought up VD07 re: a discussion about where the heaviest snow might fall based on yesterday's 12Z Euro deformation versus its raw qpf output. I wasn't saying I thought this was an analog to VD storm...just musings about that particular model run. A model run that was apparently on steroids. LOL

I wish it hadn't done that because prior to that our hopes here in ENY were quite tempered. Then the usually reliable Euro goes and does that.....

At least I have 4 inches of snow cover....better than nothing.

Sorry if I over analyzed your post.

Again I really think this storm is a non-event for ENY'ers and WNE'ers.

BUT I do agree with your post on the EC run from yesterday AM being good for very heavy snow for areas jsut west thru north of the CD

[FEFD17]

I misread your post Logan.I was getting really hopeful and was reading way to much into the western trend.I thought for sure the models were all going to play follow the leader and come west too.Now that this storm is a write off anything else looking significant before Christmas?

[NorEaster27]

12 inches at whiteface last night, SW flow off the lakes FTW?

[Syrmax]

00Z Euro says: Screw You NY!

This one's an Eastern NE storm....nwp been tracking this way for days and looks to be centering up on that solution now. Still some hope for ENY...we'll root for ya. CNY/WNY - its LES or Bust as usual, no synoptic help as far as the eye can see.

[Wx4cast]

00Z Euro says: Screw You NY!

This one's an Eastern NE storm....nwp been tracking this way for days and looks to be centering up on that solution now. Still some hope for ENY...we'll root for ya. CNY/WNY - its LES or Bust as usual, no synoptic help as far as the eye can see.

May not be much over SNE/ENE save for CC and ACK

[Wx4cast]

Sayonara to our latest threat..time to move on and also look at LES events.

[Andyace]

Another pepper sandwich no suprise to me.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The GFS model keeps flipping around as to whether or not the period between Christmas and new years is going to be cold or warm. This morning's 6zed has it cold, while yesterday it looked warm. Any thoughts?

Perhaps the cold anomolies will shift north come the new year? It looks like Sept Iles, Quebec might get its second green Christmas in a row. Pretty incredible! It's interesting that Joe Bastardi goes on about how the pattern overall may be turning colder in the big population areas over the next few years, yet if high latitude blocking is what gets us to that, what he fails to highlight is that places such as Sept Iles and labrador, which traditionally have had ferocious winters, are going to be having warmer winters. Those areas are practically torhing at the moment! Perhaps, then, Canada's climate WILL warm over the next 20-30 years thanks to high latitude blocking while high population areas such as western Europe, the Ohio valley and the mid atlantic states will cool.

[West Point, NY]

It may only be 2" on the ground, but it will be a white Christmas again this year IMBY as it has been each of the 5 winters I've been here.

[Logan11]

Reassessing out there ...this LES is sublimating and probably no more than 3 inches now in open areas...maybe 4" in the woods. We need some replenishment next week or it will be a very minimal white Christmas after a whole week evaporation, a few days near 32F, etc. Hopefully the lake can generously send a few bands down again. In terms of LES, about 10" total so far in December has been overachieving, but I crave that real snowstorm.

It may only be 2" on the ground, but it will be a white Christmas again this year IMBY as it has been each of the 5 winters I've been here.

[2Slick]

Syracuse Breaks December Monthly Snowfall Record

It's official, Syracuse just had the snowiest month of December on record.

AS OF 1250 PM...70.8 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN FOR THE MONTH OF

DECEMBER AT THE SYRACUSE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD

DECEMBER MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD OF 70.3 INCHES THAT WAS SET IN

DECEMBER 2000.

SINCE THERE ARE TWO MORE WEEKS LEFT IN DECEMBER...THE ALL-TIME

MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR SYRACUSE WILL BE CHALLENGED.

THE TOP 5 MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR THE SYRACUSE AIRPORT ARE AS

FOLLOWS:

1. 78.1 INCHES JANUARY 2004

2. 72.6 INCHES FEBRUARY 1958

3. 72.2 INCHES JANUARY 1978

4. 71.0 INCHES JANUARY 1966

5. 70.8 INCHES DECEMBER 1ST-17TH, 2010

:snowman:

[Avid6eek]

I'm looking for some real snow before we ring in the new year, otherwise this is going to turn into a rather depressing winter.

Record breaking LES has also resulted in record cooling of the eastern great lakes. Lake Erie is sitting at 34F. Only 3 years since 1927 have had colder readings. Erie doesn't have too much more to put out. Ontario is warmer at 37F, but still cooler than average.

[FEFD17]

Anyone remember GFL's last 12+ synoptic storm that was all snow? a non slush/rain event? I am trying to get a baseline so as to figure an average as to how long patterns last and possibly when it wil get back to winter.In other words,to see if instead of saying from last winter to present, it was either cold and dry or warm and rain during the synoptic storms, or is the pattern changing to a lot of synoptic misses that downstate and points south cash in.I seem to remember when kind of like now,upstate and points north cannot buy a snow storm.I wonder if its one of the same due to the pattern or because the pattern is changing back to our normal.I thought we used get a lot of clippers and western runners and synoptic storms were a bonus.I am looking at weather cycles and longevity.

[Logan11]

Some kind of snow underway here ....light to moderate. Weird look on radar as if two bands are converging - one from the nw and one from the wsw. I don't expect this to amount to much. A few tenths of an inch dusting now.

25F

[Couchsachraga]

Fed17,

I plow a few driveways in the Q'bury area, and grew up in Johnsburg.

Not sure how long you've lived here, or plowed, but my experience has been that MOST winters there are 7-10 plowable events. Last year was a low for me (5), a year or two before that ('06-'07 I think... V Day storm, etc...) was 13. It is extremely variable per winter... and by week. We may have a stormy period where every few days your out plowing, there may be weeks on end waiting for enough snow to plow (where we are now imho). Like history, the patterns may rhyme, but the tend not to be exact repeats.

Mind you, I pay more attention to the folks here to try and learn about the weather and how it all works. I need to keep learning the terminology as a lot of it makes my head spin... now if we were talking geological or financial terms I could at least keep up!

[Syrmax]

Some kind of snow underway here ....light to moderate. Weird look on radar as if two bands are converging - one from the nw and one from the wsw. I don't expect this to amount to much. A few tenths of an inch dusting now.

25F

Mohawk valley convergence? we've had a steady feed of SN- all day here on light WNW winds...

12Z NWP: WIDE RIGHT SUN / MON. LOL. As I suspected...maybe CC and Downeast Maine get something but other than that the Maritime Provinces are in good shape. Can't buy a synoptic system (where it snows) in the northeast yet. If GooFuS is to be believed looks like rinse and repeat forever. Something will pop though. Maybe another midwest bomb - wouldn't that be special?

[Tornado Girl]

Why the coastal was never going to happen

Andy and I were discussing the Sun-Mon storm a few days ago. and how the blocking in Canada was going to be a big problem

1 You can see the shortwave over Central Texas.

2 Above the Great Lakes is the retograding closed low.

The S/W is moving very fast; which, if you want a Nor'easter is not a good thing. At this speed it will never allow the Jets to phase. The other part of the problem, is the closed Low up in canada is moving to the southwest very slowly. In the image you can see how elongated the closed low is. Also not good, this will cause a flatter solution. Therefore we will not get the negative tilt we need for this thing to come up the coast.

[FEFD17]

Fed17,

I plow a few driveways in the Q'bury area, and grew up in Johnsburg.

Not sure how long you've lived here, or plowed, but my experience has been that MOST winters there are 7-10 plowable events. Last year was a low for me (5), a year or two before that ('06-'07 I think... V Day storm, etc...) was 13. It is extremely variable per winter... and by week. We may have a stormy period where every few days your out plowing, there may be weeks on end waiting for enough snow to plow (where we are now imho). Like history, the patterns may rhyme, but the tend not to be exact repeats.

Mind you, I pay more attention to the folks here to try and learn about the weather and how it all works. I need to keep learning the terminology as a lot of it makes my head spin... now if we were talking geological or financial terms I could at least keep up!

I have lived in this area 40 years(all my life). I remember as a kid waiting for the bus and even as a young adult the weather was different. I remember certain storms more than others although I don't know what years.I remember there being at least a foot of snow on one storm and then it went to freezing rain and it was thick enough that my little brother and I would see who would break through by walking on it.I remember seeing storms come in and the roads would have a ton of snow on them before the plows came through just trying to keep up.The storms then were different in both accumulation and intensity.I don't ever remember anything that is going on now(or for that matter not happening) when I was a kid.This is what I was trying to ask.I wanted to compare the mid 70s to around 1990...I graduated high school in 1989.the comparison was only to see if there is/was a cycle effect to patterns and how long or short they average and what type pattern runs next.

[CNYWxGuy]

The next potential synoptic threat looks to be around Xmas Eve into Xmas day. 0z GFS brings potential advisory-level snowfall up thru atleast a portion of southern Upstate...