Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro is gonna push deformation back into ENY though (maybe back to the Tug and western Dacks) and this is very hard to predict qpf-wise. You could get some surprisingly high amounts if that sets up over a certain corridor. Remember VD 2007 and nobody predicted that one belt would get those kind of #'s. So I don't think exact qpf #'s now are too relevant. Let's just keep this track or edge it a tad more west. Maybe it will come a little further west so we all get in on the action without introducing ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 its much lighter out towards I-81 looks like .2-.4 from ART to BMG with more further south and east really i have the I-81 corridor in the 0.50-0.75 range accumulated through 120 hours what maps are you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 really i have the I-81 corridor in the 0.50-0.75 range accumulated through 120 hours what maps are you using? i'm using SV. That seems right I was just subtracting precip thats falls prior to the storm but yea it may be higher than what i posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i'm using SV. That seems right I was just subtracting precip thats falls prior to the storm but yea it may be higher than what i posted. yeah ok cool thanks for that just wanted to make sure we were on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Good post. I agree. Now it would be nice to see the other models jump on board at 00z Euro is gonna push deformation back into ENY though (maybe back to the Tug and western Dacks) and this is very hard to predict qpf-wise. You could get some surprisingly high amounts if that sets up over a certain corridor. Remember VD 2007 and nobody predicted that one belt would get those kind of #'s. So I don't think exact qpf #'s now are too relevant. Let's just keep this track or edge it a tad more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 yeah ok cool thanks for that just wanted to make sure we were on the same page. another tick westward and most of central and eastern new york all the way up to montreal will be sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thats a decent amount of precip for 50 miles or so west of here.Just need this baby to move 50 more miles west., and for the rest of the models to catch on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the euro occludes the storm and moves it all pretty quick out of here the GEM lingered longer with an associated trof hanging back similar to what the GFS was showing earlier this week... but it looks like there may be a kicker on its heels now, storm #2 looks like the ukie hooks the storm a bit further north which wouldnt necessariuly be a bad thing so as to limit marine air infilitration, though i dont know about its qpf back through ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Keep moving west so Central Ny gets in on it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thats a decent amount of precip for 50 miles or so west of here.Just need this baby to move 50 more miles west., and for the rest of the models to catch on... I just looked it up I am ~90 miles northwest of you.My house to Saratoga is ~ 20 miles south of me.Saratoga to Herkimer is ~60 to 70 miles east... Does that sound right to you? I didnt think Saratoga was that much of a jump to Herkimer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is there a QPF to inch calculator anywhere? I know it probably a dumb question..... Do you mean liquid equivalent to snow amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I just looked it up I am ~90 miles northwest of you.My house to Saratoga is ~ 20 miles south of me.Saratoga to Herkimer is ~60 to 70 miles east... Does that sound right to you? I didnt think Saratoga was that much of a jump to Herkimer. That sounds right . It takes me 90 minutes of so for Rome to Saratoga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What did the 18 zed show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Do you mean liquid equivalent to snow amounts? Yes sir.Like a wind chill chart type of thing.Have the temp on one side the qpf amount on another and the amount in the middle.I am not sure if there is/was such a thing.Kind of like a snow ratio chart for dummies...Thanks!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What did the 18 zed show? NAM was a total miss for everyone , incldugin new england GFS about to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thank you NAM was a total miss for everyone , incldugin new england GFS about to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes sir.Like a wind chill chart type of thing.Have the temp on one side the qpf amount on another and the amount in the middle.I am not sure if there is/was such a thing.Kind of like a snow ratio chart for dummies...Thanks!!!!!!!! Much of what you ask depends on many factors. I do recall a "simple" LWE to Snowfall chart on the web I'll see if I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Much of what you ask depends on many factors. I do recall a "simple" LWE to Snowfall chart on the web I'll see if I can find it. Thanks Andy.There is really no rush on that.I am sure you are probably either are, or will be real busy with the possible storm. I figured it was a fish storm totally then earlier today I see the board in storm mode.At least it does look like the west trend has continued,but how far is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes sir.Like a wind chill chart type of thing.Have the temp on one side the qpf amount on another and the amount in the middle.I am not sure if there is/was such a thing.Kind of like a snow ratio chart for dummies...Thanks!!!!!!!! Much of what you ask depends on many factors. I do recall a "simple" LWE to Snowfall chart on the web I'll see if I can find it. The many factors include temperatures aloft and whether or not favorable lift extends into the preferred area for snow growth. You can find a condensed version on the above here: "Snow Growth" ANd you can find the chart that you asked for here: LWE to Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 331 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-172045- NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN- SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO- OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- 331 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE SNOW OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION ANYTHING MORE SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I just looked it up I am ~90 miles northwest of you.My house to Saratoga is ~ 20 miles south of me.Saratoga to Herkimer is ~60 to 70 miles east... Does that sound right to you? I didnt think Saratoga was that much of a jump to Herkimer. Yea i think u meant your NE of me not NW..That might put u in the tug lol But yea saratoga springs is about 65-70 miles ENE of here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like i might add a little more to my seasonal total of 15.5"... HOWEVER...IN THEWAKE OF THE WAVE PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE BAND TO REDEVELOP...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. AS SUCH...WILL ENHANCE POPS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW DACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...ESP FOR WEST CENTRAL HERKIMER CO. IN THESE REGIONS...AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBLITY OF SLIGHTLY GREATER AMTS...ESP SHOULD THIS BAND PERSIST. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWBANDS WILL BE A LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMTS UNDER THE ADVISORY RANGE.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yea i think u meant your NE of me not NW..That might put u in the tug lol But yea saratoga springs is about 65-70 miles ENE of here.. DOH!!!!!!!! LOL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 18Z GFS 18Z NAM Looks like Eastern Long Island and New England will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The many factors include temperatures aloft and whether or not favorable lift extends into the preferred area for snow growth. You can find a condensed version on the above here: "Snow Growth" ANd you can find the chart that you asked for here: LWE to Snow Andy: your liquid water Equivalent link is not working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If I am looking correctly at the models (and that is leaving a LOT to be desired), this storm is a miss for basically anything north of Albany.I hope I am wrong.It looks (to me) like it has trended west as many on here have picked up on,.... but the storm is either not north enough or has trended too far west and is now going back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If I am looking correctly at the models (and that is leaving a LOT to be desired), this storm is a miss for basically anything north of Albany.I hope I am wrong.It looks (to me) like it has trended west as many on here have picked up on,.... but the storm is either not north enough or has trended too far west and is now going back the other way. Right now, it looks like most of the snow will be east of the HV. But the track will be close. So, It won't take much of a deviation to the west for this storm to get more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When I looked at the 12z Euro it was showing a great New England coastal with some of the snow west of Albany and maybe getting close to CNY. The other Models are showing the exact opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm watching the 00z NAM run now, but it is runnig slow. Hopefully we will see a trend to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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