Syrmax Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't even think the problem is as much the block...as it is that the southern stream (from whence this s/w was to be born) is just looking moribund on most of the models. You can't have a storm if you don't have a short wave. LOL The northern stream backs and the blocking 50/50 type low scoots out. The table is set, but there is no food..... The NE section is a sad and frustrating place now....at least this LES stuff saves me from brown ground and teens. Good point re: Southern stream...I suppose not unusual for La Nina winters. For savage amusement....take a look at the 00Z GooFuS 384 hr panel. Get the sandbags out! LOL LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 On the other hand apparently the 0Z Euro has suddenly shifted and now nails NE. LES is petering out here now as the bands seem to be realigning. Maybe things will heat up again later. Big event for us .... 2.5" since yesterday. Good point re: Southern stream...I suppose not unusual for La Nina winters. For savage amusement....take a look at the 00Z GooFuS 384 hr panel. Get the sandbags out! LOL LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Picked up about 1 inch last night, about 12 inches for the season... AWESOME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 6.9" this morning. 9" on the ground. snowblowed for the first time too. Some picts from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Congrats 6.9" this morning. 9" on the ground. snowblowed for the first time too. Some picts from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Picked up about 1 inch last night, about 12 inches for the season... AWESOME! Please stop double posting in seperate threads. Keep all LES related discussion/totals in the LES thread. Thanks. -------------------- On another note...the 0Z Euro is looking pretty nice. Not a huge hit for ENY, but it's something. Awaiting the 12Z run to see if there is any consistancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I am now totally wondering what is going on.This is from the ALB NWS: THE MODELS NOT TRENDING TOWARD A CLEAR SOLUTION FOR THE STORM THAT`S EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN HEAD NORTHWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MUCH FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE COAST BY ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE 12Z RUN. THIS SOLUTION IS SEEN AS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS IS CONCERNING SINCE THE ECMWF USUALLY HANDLES THE THIS TIME RANGE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN BETTER. THE GFS...GFSENSEMBES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP THE STORM FARTHER TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN FAVORED. Is it possible, -I know very slim if at all chance the one model that usually does the best----according to them---- is right? I can see why they are calling it wrong with a 250 mile shift,but isn't the GFS usually the fantasy storm model? It looks like there is some head scratching going on,and I am not the only one thankfully.Thanks for all the help with the dumb questions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Please stop double posting in seperate threads. Keep all LES related discussion/totals in the LES thread. Thanks. Um. This is the Upstate discussion. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Um. This is the Upstate discussion. Right? This is the Upstate Sub-Forum. There is a separate thread for lake effect discussion. (and this is a nice feature of having our own sub-forum). Those that do not live in lake effect bands are not particularly interested in lake effect matters. The issue is, when we have a 34-page winter thread, there is obviously a LOT of discussion going on. There is no need to mix general winter observation and synoptic threat discussion with lake effect posts. It's distracting and detracts from the ability of people to quickly come in and see whats going on and then contribute. The harder it is for people to contribute, the less interesting the discussion is. Perhaps we can re-name the next thread "Winter 2010 Synoptic Discussion" to more clearly separate the threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Um. This is the Upstate discussion. Right? Yes...general Upstate weather is posted in this thread. We have seperate threads made for individual events. Andy's post was pointed out because he is posted the exact same comments in multiple threads. That is unnecessary and makes threads harder to follow. The childish "whatever" responses are uncalled for as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I dont know why there are 2 threads anyway. Nothing is going on outside the LES. Got about 9 inches since 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the latest GFS corresponds with last nights euro id say ENY and certainly SW quebec need to keep an eye on the coastal storm. at the very least. in fact, all the models are trending that way now it appears. these coastal storms are always with last minute tricks, i doubt we have the final solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 12Z GFS seems to be following the trend set by last nights Euro with a very similiar track. As of now someone in SNE has a good chance of getting a foot of snow, but NYS is just out of reach of the modeled QPF at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes...general Upstate weather is posted in this thread. We have seperate threads made for individual events. Andy's post was pointed out because he is posted the exact same comments in multiple threads. That is unnecessary and makes threads harder to follow. The childish "whatever" responses are uncalled for as well. Well maybe this thread needs to be closed then. If I get lake effect I'll post in the other one then. there is going to end up being 100 different discussions for EACH event in EACH area then I assume. I'm not trying to be a d***. I enjoy this place being a weather geek and have learned a lot between here and the old place. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hey my name is Dick don't be picking on me ;-) 44" here so far for the season all but 8" of it was FES. Whens the good stuff coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 With the latest models now throwing a few inches of backside snow into ENY ... it may be called for to start a new thread for this Noreaster. I guess we'll wait and see if the west trend continues and puts us into a significant accumulation situation. It's about time for the Sage of GFL to weigh in on this ... Andy G. has been infrequent here lately.... As far as LES posts...yeah they should be in that dedicated thread, but a little crossover will happen from time to time...its a matter of degree. Posting the same thing in both threads is pointless. Well maybe this thread needs to be closed then. If I get lake effect I'll post in the other one then. there is going to end up being 100 different discussions for EACH event in EACH area then I assume. I'm not trying to be a d***. I enjoy this place being a weather geek and have learned a lot between here and the old place. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 With the latest models now throwing a few inches of backside snow into ENY ... it may be called for to start a new thread for this Noreaster. I guess we'll wait and see if the west trend continues and puts us into a significant accumulation situation. It's about time for the Sage of GFL to weigh in on this ... Andy G. has been infrequent here lately.... As far as LES posts...yeah they should be in that dedicated thread, but a little crossover will happen from time to time...its a matter of degree. Posting the same thing in both threads is pointless. I read a post by Andy around the weekend and he said he was really busy.I have been following the NWS discussion really close,and they are still not real optimistic,but are really unsure of anything, wrt the weekend. I am gonna go prep the plow and pray this will bring the storm in.I have had 4-5 different phone calls just from the little amount we got from people who either broke something or want some preventantive work done before the next snow.I cannot believe how much money people people have invested in equipment for snow and ice equipment around here and how little it has been used.A different guy just called me and asked if I knew anyone wanted to buy his sander,he spent $6800. on it 3 years ago and it is like brand new.He just sold it for $2200.I just hope when Andy does read the models he comes on here with a !!!!!! I cannot believe how much difference there is in the cooling with just a little snow on the ground.It has warmed up a bit from the previous few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Maybe the western trend will help us out! How did I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Per the 12Z Euro....Merry White Christmas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro has a decent qpf gradient over eastern ny.. looks like 1 - 1.25 for ALY less west much more near VT/ MA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Anyone see Euro QPF for the GFL to Lake George area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Anyone see Euro QPF for the GFL to Lake George area. Looks like a litle over 1" maybe 1.25" eastern side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like a litle over 1" maybe 1.25" eastern side I'm still hoping the westward trend continues a bit more...maybe another 50 miles or so. Even as is, it looks like a nice storm with the models quickly coming into agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How far west does the precip make it? Does it make it to I-81? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like a litle over 1" maybe 1.25" eastern side Is there a QPF to inch calculator anywhere? I know it probably a dumb question..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How far west does the precip make it? Does it make it to I-81? its much lighter out towards I-81 looks like .2-.4 from ART to BMG with more further south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is there a QPF to inch calculator anywhere? I know it probably a dumb question..... good question all I know is that the ratios should be pretty decent with abundant cold air maybe 12-15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is there still time for this to run to chicago? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Maybe it will come a little further west so we all get in on the action without introducing ptype issues. its much lighter out towards I-81 looks like .2-.4 from ART to BMG with more further south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Maybe it will come a little further west so we all get in on the action without introducing ptype issues. Thats what I'm hoping for lol it would be nice for everyone to stay snow but obviously if this comes any further west there would be problems for parts of new england. It looks like theres room for it to come a little further west so I wouldn't be too suprised if it by 12z tomorrow. Then again it could go east if its initializing that southern stream energy incorrectly . Anyways it's nice to have the EURO on the western side of model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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